UOB Kay Hian Private Wealth Management
Date of Report: September 15, 2025
Global Markets Outlook September 2025: Fed Moves, Tech Deals, and Asia’s Rising Momentum

Key Market Headlines and Macro Overview

Global financial markets wrapped up the week on a mixed note, with the S&P 500 hovering near all-time highs, while the Nasdaq outperformed and small caps lagged. Market participants have fully priced in a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with negligible odds of a larger reduction. Meanwhile, pivotal US-China economic talks kicked off in Madrid, spotlighting trade issues, security, and the fate of TikTok’s US operations. President Trump is widely expected to extend the September 17 deadline for ByteDance’s divestiture of TikTok’s American assets, as the stage is set for a potential Trump-Xi summit at APEC later this year.

Amid intensifying Sino-US tech tensions, China launched anti-dumping and anti-discrimination probes against American analog IC chips and chip practices, while the US added 32 entities—two of which are SMIC suppliers—to its restricted trade list. Upcoming, the US and UK will formalize a sweeping technology pact covering artificial intelligence, semiconductors, telecom, and quantum computing. Industry heavyweights Jensen Huang (Nvidia) and Sam Altman (OpenAI) are expected to join the US delegation, with Nvidia remaining a core recommendation from UOB Kay Hian.

Trader’s Corner: Hong Kong Indices, IPO Calendar, and Market Ranges

Hong Kong’s IPO calendar is robust, with Hesai-W (Industrials), 160 Health (Consumer Staples), GenfFleet (Healthcare), and Butong Group (Consumer Discretionary) set to debut between September 16 and 23. Investors should also track this week’s packed event schedule, including US-China trade talks, FOMC rate decisions, Amazon Accelerate, Meta Connect, and key Chinese economic data releases.

Global Indices, Bonds, Commodities, and Currency Snapshots

Americas: Tech Giants, M&A, and Policy Shifts

Apple (AAPL)

• iPhone Air Launch Delayed in China: Regulatory hurdles related to eSIM technology have postponed the mainland China debut of iPhone Air, though iPhone 17 models were released as planned.

Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN)

• FTC Investigations: Both companies face US FTC probes over search advertising practices, coinciding with federal trials on monopoly claims this month.
• Amazon Logistics and Competition: Amazon is rolling out GM’s electric delivery vans in its sustainability push, targeting deployment of 100,000 EVs by 2030. Sellers on Amazon and MercadoLibre are facing competitive disadvantages, with algorithms favoring those who use proprietary logistics services.
• Core Recommendation: AMZN is flagged as a core recommendation.

Microsoft (MSFT)

• EU Antitrust Settlement: Microsoft avoided fines by agreeing to lower prices for Office (excluding Teams), following complaints regarding software bundling. MSFT remains a core recommendation.

Tesla (TSLA)

• Leadership and Political Impact: Chair publicly dismissed concerns that Elon Musk’s political activities are detrimental to sales, affirming Musk’s centrality at Tesla.
• Production vs. Registrations: German factory to ramp up EV output after strong 3Q-4Q sales targets, though registrations in Germany fell 39% last month, reflecting regional discrepancies.

Google (GOOGL)

• Datacentre Expansion: Google is considering a major datacentre build in Teesside (UK), leveraging the area’s new AI Growth Zone status.

US Policy and Geopolitics

• Russian Oil Tariffs: The US will urge G-7 allies to levy tariffs of up to 100% on China and India for Russian oil purchases, increasing pressure on Russia with further sanctions and banking restrictions.
• Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk (NSC) M&A: CEO met with Trump to discuss an \$85b bid for NSC, potentially expediting the largest US rail merger in decades.

Greater China: Momentum, Trade Talks, and Sector Trends

Hong Kong Equity Market Outlook

• Expectation of US rate cuts and positive A-share momentum continue to lift Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index near 26,400 points.
• Northbound fund flows show persistent H-share buying, with Stock Connect southbound seeing net inflows exceeding HKD7.3b.
• Technical analysis: Hang Seng Index has regained resistance above 26,200 points and could target the July 2021 minor gap (26,800–27,000), with initial support at 25,000–25,100 points.
• Hang Seng Tech Index has not yet surpassed this year’s highs, offering catch-up potential.

• Major economic data is due, with forecasts for retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment, and unemployment rate in line with steady growth.
• US-China trade talks in Madrid continue, focusing on tariffs and TikTok, though markets expect little in terms of concrete outcomes.
• China’s new bank loans rebounded in August (RMB590b), but missed expectations due to property sector weakness and overcapacity controls.
• Hong Kong is pitching itself as an assembly base for Chinese EV makers, considering sites in the New Territories bordering mainland China.
• Tencent hires OpenAI researcher Yao Shunyu with a package up to 100m yuan, as tech firms compete fiercely for AI talent.
• China targets doubling new energy storage capacity to 180GW by 2027, aiming to spur RMB250b (\$35b) in sector investment.
• AI sector optimism remains strong, with Cambricon rebounding 10% last week, despite passive outflow risks from STAR50 index rebalancing.

Asia ex-China: Sector Picks and Regional Developments

Hong Leong Asia (HLA SP)

• Steel and Diesel Demand: Target price raised 7% to S\$2.82, factoring in upgraded expectations for BRC (20% associate) amid construction demand. China Yuchai, another associate, is set to benefit from strong demand for diesel gensets.
• BUY rating maintained.

Aeon Thana Sinsap (AEONTS TB)

• 2QFY26 Preview: Net profit expected at Bt836m (+2% YoY, +8% QoQ), boosted by gain from sale of written-off receivables. Share buybacks have driven a 13% rally since the program’s start, with a 28% recovery from the bottom.
• BUY rating maintained, target price Bt140.00.

Indonesia Strategy

• Finance Minister signals pro-growth stance, channeling Rp200t of idle funds into SOE banks, urging BI not to sterilize liquidity. The move targets credit revival and consumer recovery, with BBNI and BMRI most sensitive, while BBNI and BBRI are best positioned to reprice costly deposits.
• Risks include fiscal dominance perception and execution challenges, but SOE banks and consumer sectors stand to benefit.
• Top Picks: ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, CMRY, INKP, MTEL, HRUM, MDKA, AMRT, NCKL.

EMEA & Other Markets: Defense, Banking, and Corporate M&A

European Markets

• STOXX 600 slipped 0.09% after ECB’s hold verdict; defense stocks led gains amid geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe (notably after Poland shot down a suspected Russian drone).
• BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, and Rolls-Royce saw notable rises.

UBS (UBSG SW)

• UBS executives met US officials to discuss American banking strategy, including potential acquisitions or mergers, as Swiss capital rules tighten.
• CEO Sergio Erotti affirmed commitment to Switzerland while seeking shareholder protection.

Sabadell (SAB SM) vs. BBVA (BBAR US)

• Sabadell’s board unanimously rejected BBVA’s hostile takeover bid, stating that it undervalued the bank. The offer consisted of one BBVA share and €0.70 cash for every 5.5483 Sabadell shares, or approximately €15.3b for the entire company.

Technical Analysis: Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• HSI reached a weekly high of 26,585 and low of 25,387, with volatility at 1,198 points.
• Weekly chart signals extended rebound and a climb above the golden ratio (0.618) at 26,200, on strong turnover. RSI is approaching 70, indicating possible overbought territory and risk of pullback.
• If HSI holds above 26,200, potential target zones are 26,800–27,000 (minor gap from July 2021), with a longer-term cycle upper limit at 27,500.
• Daily chart shows strong momentum above moving averages, with resistance at 26,200 and support at 25,000–25,100.

Hang Seng Tech Index

• HS Tech Index fluctuated between 6,042 and 5,666 last week, with a 5.3% gain on the weekly chart and RSI above 60.
• Bullish MACD signals suggest further upside, with a challenge of the 6,200-point March high possible.
• Friday’s inverted hammer candlestick may indicate short-term consolidation; support at 5,500.

Conclusion: Strategic Takeaways and Recommendations

Market volatility remains high as investors balance central bank moves, global trade shifts, and rapid sector rotation—especially in tech and energy. Key recommendations from UOB Kay Hian include Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft, while Asia’s financial and consumer sectors are set for renewed momentum. Technical signals suggest ongoing strength in Hong Kong equities, with targeted IPOs and sector plays for those seeking exposure. EMEA remains defensive, while M&A and banking realignment are under the lens in Europe.

Investors should closely monitor macro, sector, and company-specific developments as the week unfolds, with a focus on risk management and timely allocation decisions.