Broker Name: CGS International Securities
Date of Report: January 19, 2026
Excerpt from CGS International Securities report.
Report Summary
- Indonesia may cap ride-hailing commissions at 10%, posing a 5-10% downside risk to Grab’s FY26F EBITDA, though the company has levers to offset some impact such as higher fares and reduced incentives.
- Grab’s 4Q25F adjusted EBITDA remained stable at US\$487m, supported by higher on-demand gross merchandise value (GMV), but margins slightly declined due to increased incentives during the festive season.
- The report maintains a positive outlook on Grab (“Add” rating) with a US\$7.20 target price, expecting all business segments to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by FY27F as financial services losses narrow and efficiency improves.
- Key risks include regulatory changes in Indonesia, higher credit losses, and increased corporate costs, but potential catalysts are cost optimization, ad business growth, and faster financial services profitability.
- Grab continues to advance its ESG initiatives, particularly in governance and social engagement, though environmental performance lags global peers due to slow EV adoption and heavy reliance on carbon offsetting.
- Financial forecasts show continued robust revenue and EBITDA growth, with adjusted EBITDA margin projected to increase from 7.2% in FY25F to 14.5% in FY27F, and strong cash flow generation.
Above is an excerpt from a report by CGS International Securities. Clients of CGS International Securities can be the first to access the full report from the CGS International Securities website: https://www.cgs-cimb.com
