Date: 24 October 2024
Broker: UOB Kay Hian Private Limited
Company Overview
Unilever Indonesia (UNVR) manufactures home and personal care products, including soaps, cosmetics, and detergents. The company also produces food items such as ice cream, oil- and dairy-based products, tea, and margarine.
Stock Data
- Bloomberg Ticker: UNVR IJ
- Shares Issued: 38,150.0 million
- Market Cap: Rp88,889.5 billion (US$5,688.2 million)
- 3-Month Average Daily Turnover: US$3.4 million
- Price Performance (52-week high/low): Rp4,080/Rp2,330
Recent Performance
3Q24 Results
- Net Profit After Tax (NPAT): Rp543 billion (down 62% YoY and 46.7% QoQ)
- Sales Decline: 18% YoY in 3Q24
- Key Factors for Decline:
- Stock reduction by retailers
- Boycotts related to the Gaza conflict
- Price conflicts in the market
- 9M24 NPAT: Rp3,010 billion (down 28.1% YoY)
- Sales Performance: 3Q24 sales down 18% YoY; 9M historically contributes 83% of full-year forecasts.
Financial Metrics
- Revenue (3Q24): Rp8,373 billion (down 18.0% YoY)
- Gross Profit (3Q24): Rp3,813 billion (down 26.1% YoY)
- Operating Profit (3Q24): Rp723 billion (down 60.4% YoY)
- Net Margin (3Q24): 6.5% (down from 14.0% YoY)
- Major Shareholders: Unilever Indonesia Holding B.V. (85% ownership)
Segment Analysis
-
Home & Personal Care:
- Sales declined by 20.4% YoY in 3Q24.
- Gross margin decreased by 638 basis points.
- Operating profit dropped by 54.4% YoY.
-
Food & Refreshment:
- Sales dropped by 13.5% YoY in 3Q24.
- EBIT declined by 32.9% YoY.
Outlook and Recommendations
- Short-Term Outlook: Bleak, with challenges expected to persist for several quarters.
- Target Price: Downgraded to Rp1,700, reflecting a 27% downside from current prices.
- Investment Recommendation: Downgraded from HOLD to SELL due to declining performance and market pressures.
Key Financial Forecasts
- 2024 Net Turnover: Rp35,527 billion
- 2025 Net Turnover Forecast: Rp34,106 billion
- 2026 Net Turnover Forecast: Rp35,333 billion
- Net Profit Forecast for 2024: Rp3,727 billion
- Net Profit Forecast for 2025: Rp3,080 billion
Analyst Contact
