Broker: DBS Bank Ltd
Date of Report: 30 April 2026

Excerpt from DBS Bank Ltd report.

Report Summary

• Key Call to Action: Maintain a broadly constructive view on upstream and integrated oil & gas equities; more caution warranted on downstream/refining-exposed stocks. Upstream & integrated oil plays could gain momentum as geopolitical risks escalate.
• Oil Price Forecasts (Brent):
  • 2026: Average USD 85-90/bbl (up from previous forecast of USD 80-85/bbl)
  • 2027: Average USD 72-77/bbl (up from previous forecast of USD 65-70/bbl)
• Scenario Probabilities:
  • Base Case (50%): Deal in 2Q26, gradual reopening of Hormuz, normalization by end-2026. Brent near-term: USD 90-110/bbl (spikes to USD 125/bbl possible), moderating to USD 80/bbl by year end.
  • Bear Case (30%): Prolonged stalemate, higher prices: USD 110-125/bbl (potential spikes to USD 150/bbl), moderating to USD 90-100/bbl medium term.
  • Worst Case (20%): Renewed escalation, severe supply disruption. Near-term Brent: USD 125/bbl+; fears of USD 150-200/bbl could resurface.
• Key Risks & Watch Items:
  • US-Iran talks remain in stalemate; “dual blockade” at Strait of Hormuz continues.
  • Mine-clearing operations could delay full normalization by up to 6 months post-conflict.
  • UAE exits OPEC effective May 1, could increase supply when Strait reopens, bears on long-term oil price floor (USD 65-70/bbl).
  • Tail risks: Potential for military escalation or mine incident causing oil price spikes.
• Actionable Insights for Investors:
  • Upstream and integrated oil names have further upside potential as consensus 2026 earnings estimates are upgraded on higher oil price assumptions.
  • Dividend visibility remains strong for oil majors.
  • Correction possible only if a surprise US-Iran deal is reached; otherwise, further upside supported.

above is an excerpt from a report by DBS Bank Ltd. Clients of DBS Bank Ltd can be the first to access the full report from the DBS website : https://www.dbs.com/