天源资产评估有限公司关于浙江东望时代科技股份有限公司股权收购相关事项的监管工作函评估回复详解

核心摘要

• 浙江东望时代科技股份有限公司拟收购标的公司，设置五年业绩承诺期，承诺2026-2030年净利润累计不低于1.71亿元。
• 标的公司主要从事高阻隔聚偏二氯乙烯(PVDC)胶乳及其衍生涂布膜产品，医用胶乳业务快速增长并实现国产替代，未来重点拓展医用胶乳领域。
• 2026年业绩承诺净利润同比2024年增幅高达43.18%，2030年增幅达136.80%，业绩增长主要依赖医用胶乳产品收入。
• 标的公司在手订单短期内为917.64万元，但医用胶乳意向采购量达7,600吨，意向订单金额覆盖率超过200%，显示未来收入有较强保障。
• 境外市场正在快速推进，已与多家国际客户完成产品测试并获得部分订单，海外拓展为业绩增长提供新动力。

详细分析

业务现状及发展规划

标的公司深耕PVDC行业二十余年，掌握成熟乳液聚合技术，拥有自主知识产权和多项发明专利。食品胶乳及高阻隔食品包装膜产品市场成熟，需求稳定。近年成功研发医用胶乳打破国际垄断，2025年医用胶乳收入占比已达16.91%，毛利占比高达45.95%。未来将以医用PVDC胶乳为核心业务，加速国产替代及国际市场拓展。

订单与收入测算

标的公司2026年1-3月营业收入达3,839万元，同比增长36.35%。在手订单为917.64万元，意向采购量达7,600吨，意向订单金额为11,585万元，远超2026年预测医用胶乳收入4,905.53万元。境外客户产品验证推进顺利，部分客户已开始订货和供货。未来医用胶乳销售量预测较为保守，仅占意向采购量41.8%，业绩承诺期末销量为82.5%。

业绩承诺与实现可行性

2024年标的公司净利润为1,815.86万元，2025年为1,529.07万元。2026-2030年业绩承诺净利润分别为2,080万、2,320万、2,720万、3,120万、3,440万元，净利润增量主要来自医用胶乳收入。国内头部药包材企业已实现批量供货，境外客户正逐步放量，订单需求充足，业绩承诺具有较强实现性。

成本与费用预测

毛利率逐年提升，主要原因是高毛利医用胶乳收入权重增加。各项成本费用预测参照历史水平，销售费用占比逐年下降，管理、研发费用占比稳定。税金及附加、财务费用、其他收益均按实际经营及相关政策进行合理预测。所得税优惠政策叠加，综合所得税率低于常规水平。

对股东和投资者的影响

• 标的公司业绩承诺期净利润大幅增长，若实现将极大提升公司盈利能力，是明显的利好。
• 医用胶乳业务快速增长，完全打破国际垄断，市场拓展至海外，产业链地位大幅提升，有望带动估值重塑。
• 订单意向充足，覆盖率远超预测收入，显示公司业绩保障性强，短期内业绩兑现风险较低。
• 高毛利业务权重提升，毛利率逐年上升，盈利能力增强。
• 政策性税收优惠叠加，减轻税负、提升净利水平。

潜在价格敏感信息

• 业绩承诺期净利润增幅巨大，若兑现将显著提升公司估值。
• 医用胶乳业务实现国产替代、海外拓展，打开成长空间，有望成为未来股价主要驱动因素。
• 订单意向远高于预测收入，若落地则对公司业绩形成强支撑。
• 政策性税收优惠带来额外净利提升。

结论

浙江东望时代科技股份有限公司收购标的公司及其业绩承诺期内的净利润增长，医用胶乳业务突破国际垄断并实现快速放量，海外市场拓展顺利，订单意向充足，高毛利业务权重提升，综合政策优惠叠加，均为重大利好信息，对公司未来业绩和股价有显著提升作用。建议投资者密切关注相关进展。

免责声明

本文内容基于天源资产评估有限公司评估报告，不构成任何投资建议。投资者应结合自身风险承受能力，谨慎决策。公司未来经营情况可能受市场、政策、客户需求等多重因素影响，本文不保证预测结果一定实现。

Zhejiang Dongwang Times Technology’s Major Asset Acquisition: Key Evaluation Findings and Investor Impact

Summary of Key Points

• Zhejiang Dongwang Times Technology (the acquirer) sets a five-year profit guarantee for the target company, promising total net profit of at least RMB 171 million from 2026-2030.
• The target company specializes in PVDC latex and high-barrier coated film products. The medical-grade latex business is rapidly growing, breaking international monopoly and becoming the future growth driver.
• Profit guarantee represents massive growth: 2026 net profit up 43.18% from 2024, 2030 up 136.80%. Growth mainly from medical latex sales.
• Current short-term orders are RMB 9.18 million, but medical latex intention orders reach 7,600 tons (RMB 115.85 million), over 200% coverage of forecasted 2026 revenue.
• International market expansion is progressing fast, with multiple overseas customers testing products and placing orders, providing new momentum for profit growth.

In-depth Analysis

Business Status and Development Plan

The target company has over 20 years in the PVDC industry, with mature proprietary technology and patents. Food-grade latex and coated film products are stable, but the breakthrough is in medical latex, now replacing imported products. Medical latex revenue share was 16.91% in 2025, with gross profit share at 45.95%. The company will focus on medical-grade latex, accelerating domestic substitution and international expansion.

Order and Revenue Forecast

Q1 2026 revenue hit RMB 38.39 million, up 36.35% YoY. Current orders are RMB 9.18 million, but medical latex intention orders total 7,600 tons, amounting to RMB 115.85 million (ex-tax), far above the 2026 forecast of RMB 49.05 million. Overseas clients are progressing well, with some already ordering and receiving shipments. Revenue forecast is conservative: only 41.8% of intention orders for 2026, rising to 82.5% by 2030.

Profit Guarantee Feasibility

Net profit was RMB 18.16 million in 2024 and RMB 15.29 million in 2025. Guarantee for 2026-2030 is RMB 20.8m, 23.2m, 27.2m, 31.2m, 34.4m respectively. Growth comes mainly from medical latex sales. Domestic major clients have completed product validation and started bulk purchases; overseas demand is strong, supporting the guarantee’s feasibility.

Cost and Expense Forecast

Gross margin rises year by year, driven by high-margin medical latex. Cost and expense ratios are forecasted based on historical levels; sales expense ratio declines as business scales; management and R&D expense ratios are stable. Tax, financial, and other income forecasts are reasonable, factoring in policy incentives; effective income tax rate is low.

Implications for Shareholders and Investors

• The five-year net profit guarantee represents substantial growth and, if achieved, will significantly boost profitability and valuation.
• Medical latex business achieves import substitution and global expansion, enhancing industry status and potentially re-rating the stock.
• Order intention far exceeds forecasted revenue, indicating strong earnings support and low risk of short-term forecast miss.
• High-margin business increases, strengthening earning power.
• Policy tax incentives add extra net profit.

Potential Price-sensitive Information

• Profit guarantee period shows massive net profit growth, likely to drive share price if delivered.
• Medical latex business breaking monopoly and expanding overseas could be the main valuation driver.
• Order intention much higher than forecast revenue; actual order conversion could strongly support earnings.
• Tax incentives provide additional profit.

Conclusion

Zhejiang Dongwang Times Technology’s acquisition target, with its profit guarantee and medical latex business breakthrough, rapid expansion, and substantial order intentions, represents major positive news. These factors support future earnings growth and could significantly impact the share price. Investors should closely monitor developments.

Disclaimer

This article is based on the evaluation report by Tianyuan Asset Appraisal. It does not constitute investment advice. Investors should assess risks independently. The company’s future performance may be affected by market, policy, or client demand changes. No guarantee is given that forecasts will be achieved.

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