天源资产评估有限公司回复监管函：科冠聚合物股权收购业绩承诺及未来发展详解

要点概要：

• 业绩承诺：标的公司承诺2026至2030年净利润分别为2,600万元、2,900万元、3,400万元、3,900万元、4,300万元，累计不低于1.71亿元。各年度净利润增幅较2024年分别为43.18%、59.70%、87.24%、114.77%、136.80%。
• 核心产品与市场突破：标的公司为国内领先的高阻隔聚偏二氯乙烯（PVDC）胶乳及其衍生涂布膜供应商，医用胶乳打破国际垄断，实现国产替代，2025年医用胶乳收入占比达16.91%，毛利占比达45.95%。
• 订单及客户开拓：截至2026年3月末，医用胶乳意向采购量约7,600吨，覆盖率达236.16%；已实现向国内主流药包材企业批量供货，并积极推进国际客户拓展，部分海外客户已验厂并实现小批量供货。
• 未来收入与利润预测：医用胶乳将成为核心增长点，2026年预测销量3,177吨，2030年预测销量6,270吨。营业收入2026年预计16,001万元，2030年预计20,776万元，综合毛利率逐年提升至32.19%。
• 费用与税收预测：各项期间费用（销售、管理、研发、财务）均按历史水平和未来发展规划合理预测，所得税适用15.24%的综合税率，研发费用占收入比约5%，管理、销售费用占比下降。
• 业绩承诺可实现性：国内主要客户已完成产品验证并批量采购，海外市场拓展顺利，意向订单充足。中介机构认为，标的公司受益于行业发展和国产替代趋势，业绩承诺具备较强可实现性。

对投资者与股价可能影响的详细分析：

• 业绩承诺高增长：未来五年净利润承诺的高增幅（最高达136.8%），显示出公司盈利能力大幅提升，若兑现有望显著提升公司估值。
• 医用胶乳国产替代突破：该产品成功切入国内主流药包材企业供应链，且已实现对国际市场的初步渗透，意味着公司将获得更大市场份额和更高毛利率，提高盈利弹性。
• 海外订单快速增长：境外意向订单充分且客户覆盖面广，国际竞争力提升，未来出口业务有望成为新的利润增长点。
• 成本结构优化：高毛利医用胶乳收入权重增加带动整体毛利率提升，费用占比下降，整体利润率优化，增强公司盈利能力。
• 政策利好：公司可持续享受税收优惠政策（如残疾人就业增值税优惠、研发费用加计扣除等），实际税负较低，进一步提升净利润。
• 扩产与资本投入：新建年产3万吨PVDC胶乳项目，未来产能释放带动业绩增长，相关固定资产投资将增强公司长期竞争力。
• 风险提示：部分海外客户处于产品检测阶段，订单实现存在一定不确定性；国际局势等不可控因素可能影响某些客户供货进度（如中东地区客户因战争影响供货推迟）。

投资者需重点关注：

• 业绩承诺兑现情况，若未达标将影响公司估值和投资者信心。
• 医用胶乳国产替代及海外业务拓展进度，若突破国际主流客户，将显著提升市场份额。
• 新产能释放进度，影响未来几年收入和利润增长。
• 相关税收优惠政策变动及实际税负情况。
• 国际局势变化对海外订单的影响。

结论：
标的公司业绩承诺高增长，核心产品实现国产替代并切入国际市场，订单充足，费用结构优化，未来业绩具备较强可实现性。若承诺兑现，预计将对公司估值和股价产生积极影响，是投资者需重点关注的重大利好事件。

免责声明：
本文基于天源资产评估有限公司回复监管函的公开信息整理，内容不构成任何投资建议。投资者应结合自身情况及市场风险，谨慎决策。公司业绩承诺及业务拓展存在不确定性，敬请关注后续公告与进展。

Tyuan Asset Appraisal Co., Ltd. Responds to Regulatory Letter: Detailed Analysis of Kekuan Polymer Equity Acquisition and Performance Commitment

Key Points:

• Performance Commitment: The target company commits to net profits of RMB 26 million, 29 million, 34 million, 39 million, and 43 million from 2026 to 2030, totaling not less than RMB 171 million. Yearly net profit growth rates over 2024 are 43.18%, 59.70%, 87.24%, 114.77%, and 136.80%.
• Core Products and Market Breakthrough: The target company is a leading domestic supplier of high-barrier PVDC latex and coated film. Its medical-grade latex breaks the international monopoly, achieving domestic substitution. In 2025, medical latex revenue accounted for 16.91%, and gross profit contributed 45.95%.
• Orders and Customer Expansion: As of March 2026, medical latex intended procurement volume is about 7,600 tons, with coverage of 236.16%; batch supply to leading domestic pharmaceutical packaging companies realized, and international customer expansion underway, some overseas customers have completed factory audits and started small batch supply.
• Future Revenue and Profit Forecast: Medical latex will be the core growth driver, with 2026 forecast sales of 3,177 tons and 2030 forecast sales of 6,270 tons. Revenue is expected to reach RMB 160 million in 2026 and RMB 208 million in 2030, with gross margins rising to 32.19%.
• Expense and Tax Forecast: All period expenses (sales, management, R&D, finance) are reasonably forecasted based on historical levels and future plans. The applicable income tax rate is 15.24%. R&D expenses account for about 5% of revenue, and management/sales expenses ratio decreases.
• Performance Commitment Feasibility: Domestic key customers have completed product validation and batch procurement; overseas market expansion is smooth and intended orders are sufficient. Intermediary institutions believe that the company benefits from industry trends and domestic substitution, making the performance commitment highly achievable.

Detailed Analysis of Potential Impact on Investors and Share Price:

• High-Growth Performance Commitment: The five-year net profit commitment shows substantial profitability improvement, which, if fulfilled, could significantly raise company valuation.
• Breakthrough in Domestic Substitution for Medical Latex: Successfully entering the supply chain of leading pharmaceutical packaging companies and initial penetration into international markets means higher market share and gross margin, enhancing profit leverage.
• Rapid Growth in Overseas Orders: Sufficient intended orders and wide customer coverage abroad, with improved international competitiveness, suggest future export business as a new profit driver.
• Optimized Cost Structure: Higher proportion of high-margin medical latex revenue drives overall margin up, expenses ratio down, and improves profitability.
• Policy Benefits: The company continues to enjoy tax benefits (such as VAT incentives for employment of disabled, R&D super deduction), with low actual tax burden, further boosting net profit.
• Capacity Expansion and Capital Investment: New 30,000-ton PVDC latex plant will unlock growth, and related capex will strengthen long-term competitiveness.
• Risk Warning: Some overseas customers are still in product testing phase, and order realization is uncertain; international situations (e.g., war) could delay supply to certain customers (e.g., Middle East clients).

Investors Should Focus On:

• Fulfillment of performance commitments, as failure will affect valuation and investor confidence.
• Progress in domestic substitution and international business expansion; breaking into mainstream international clients would significantly boost market share.
• Capacity release schedule, impacting income and profit growth in coming years.
• Changes in tax incentives and actual tax burden.
• International situation’s impact on overseas orders.

Conclusion:
The target company’s high-growth performance commitment, breakthrough in domestic substitution, expanding international business, ample orders, and optimized cost structure make future performance highly achievable. If fulfilled, these factors are expected to positively impact valuation and share price, constituting a major positive event for investors.

Disclaimer:
This article is based on publicly available information from Tyuan Asset Appraisal Co., Ltd.’s response to the regulatory letter. Content does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make decisions prudently, considering their own circumstances and market risks. Performance commitments and business expansion involve uncertainties; please follow subsequent announcements and developments.

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