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Sunday, July 26th, 2026

CATL 2026 Outlook: Market Share Recovery, Power & ESS Battery Growth, and Strong Profit Forecasts 1

Broker: China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited
Date of Report: April 16, 2026

Excerpt from China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited report.

Report Summary

  • Stock: CATL-A (300750.SZ)
  • Action: Add (Reiterate High Conviction Call)
  • Target Price: Rmb575 (Up from Rmb505)
  • Key Highlights:
    • CATL reported strong 1Q26 results, with revenue of Rmb129bn (+24% yoy), beating forecasts by 17%.
    • Net profit for 1Q26 was Rmb20.7bn (+49% yoy), exceeding expectations by 22%.
    • Power battery shipments (1Q26: 150GWh) and ESS battery shipments (1Q26: 50GWh) both outperformed, driven by higher battery capacity per vehicle, electrification in special vehicles, and strong NEV exports.
    • ESS market share in China expected to recover to 26% in FY26F, with strong overseas demand, especially in the US and Europe.
    • Power battery market share in China rose to 47.7% in 1Q26 (from 43.3% in 2025), with European market share at 44%.
    • FY26F/FY27F/FY28F EPS forecasts raised by 18%/17%/15% on stronger shipment outlook.
    • Re-rating catalysts: New product penetration and battery technology breakthroughs. Downside risks: Slower EV penetration overseas, faster advancements by competitors.
  • Implications:
    • CATL is regaining market share and accelerating growth in both power and ESS battery segments globally, supporting the raised target price and positive outlook.

above is an excerpt from a report by China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited. Clients of China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited can be the first to access the full report from the China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited website : https://www.chinastock.com.hk

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