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Tuesday, April 21st, 2026

Oil Price Forecasts Surge Amid US-Iran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Closure – 2026/27 Outlook, Market Impact & Risks

Broker Name: DBS
Date of Report: March 2026
Excerpt from DBS report.

Report Summary

  • DBS has raised its Brent crude oil price forecasts to \$75-80/bbl for 2026 and \$65-70/bbl for 2027, citing heightened geopolitical risks from the US-Iran conflict.
  • The escalation has led to attacks on regional energy infrastructure and an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting global oil, LNG, and refined product flows.
  • DBS cautions against aggressively investing in oil & gas proxies, as recent price spikes may not yield sustained earnings upgrades.
  • The conflict has disrupted maritime traffic, trapped offshore vessels, and caused supply shocks in oil and LNG markets, with significant impacts on global commodity flows and capex plans.
  • While a rapid resolution seems unlikely, mitigating factors include some alternative pipelines and efforts by US and EU forces to secure shipping channels.
  • Prolonged disruption could push oil prices above \$100/bbl and cause demand destruction, but current disruptions are not expected to be as severe as past supply shocks.
  • Middle East oil services and capex are at risk, with potential delays and earnings pressure for service companies due to operational and supply chain disruptions.
  • DBS does not foresee a sustained re-rating of oil & gas equities unless physical supply is impaired for an extended period.
above is an excerpt from a report by DBS. Clients of DBS can be the first to access the full report from the DBS website: https://www.dbs.com
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