Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (NYSE: AUB) – Investor Update: Strategic Progress, 2026 Outlook, and Growth Initiatives

Key Highlights from the Latest Investor Presentation

• Major Acquisitions and Integration:
  • Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) has completed the acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc., further establishing itself as the largest regional bank headquartered in the Lower Mid-Atlantic.
  • The integration of Sandy Spring is on track, with the core systems successfully converted in October 2025 and five branches closed as part of the consolidation.
  • The company is also integrating American National Bankshares, which was acquired in 2024.
• Strong Financial Performance:
  • As of December 31, 2025, AUB reported assets of \$37.6 billion, loans of \$27.8 billion, deposits of \$30.5 billion, and a market capitalization of \$5.7 billion.
  • Loan growth in Q4 2025 was 6.3% annualized, and non-interest-bearing deposits stood at 22% of total deposits, indicating a strong and sticky deposit base.
  • Loan-to-deposit ratio was 91.2% at year-end 2025, showing prudent asset-liability management.
  • Q4 2025 adjusted operating return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was 22.1%, with a full-year ROTCE of 20.4%. Adjusted operating ROA for Q4 was 1.50%, with a full year at 1.33%.
  • Efficiency ratios continue to improve, with Q4 2025 at 47.8% and full-year 2025 at 49.7%, indicating strong cost control and operating leverage.
  • Net charge-offs and delinquencies remain exceptionally low, with Q4 2025 net charge-offs at just 1 basis point annualized and full-year at 17 bps.
• Capital and Liquidity Strength:
  • Capital ratios are well above regulatory “well-capitalized” minimums, with a CET1 ratio of 10.1% (holding company) and 13.0% (bank), and a leverage ratio of 9.1% (holding company) and 11.1% (bank).
  • Tangible book value per share increased to \$19.69 at the end of 2025, up 3.7% from the prior quarter.
  • The company paid a common stock dividend of \$0.37 per share in Q4 2025, up 8.8% from the prior quarter, and maintains a dividend payout ratio target of 35%-45%.
  • Liquidity remains robust with \$14.5 billion in available sources, representing a 152% liquidity coverage ratio of uninsured/uncollateralized deposits.
  • Securities portfolio totals \$5.1 billion (13.5% of assets), with 84% available-for-sale and 15% floating rate, used to manage interest rate risk defensively.
• 2026 Financial Outlook – Potentially Price Sensitive
  • Loans (end of 2026): Projected at \$29.0–\$30.0 billion.
  • Deposits (end of 2026): Projected at \$31.5–\$32.5 billion.
  • Net Interest Margin (NIM): Expected to be 3.90%–4.00%.
  • Net Interest Income (FTE): Anticipated at \$1.35–\$1.375 billion.
  • Credit Outlook: Allowance for credit losses (ACL) to loans ratio of 115–120 bps; net charge-off ratio 10–15 bps.
  • Operating Efficiency: Adjusted operating efficiency ratio (FTE) targeted at 46%–48% (top quartile among regional peers).
  • Return Metrics: ROTCE projected at 19%–20%; ROA at 1.4%–1.5%.
  • Tangible Book Value per Share Growth: Targeting 12–15% growth in 2026.
  • 2026 guidance includes full-year impact of Sandy Spring, assumes two 25bp Fed rate cuts (April and September), and expects Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina unemployment rates to remain below the national average.
• Strategic Expansion and Market Position:
  • AUB is the #1 regional bank by deposit market share in the Mid-Atlantic, Maryland, and Virginia among banks with less than \$100 billion in assets.
  • The bank operates 178 branches and plans to open 10 new branches in North Carolina over the next three years, focusing initially on Raleigh and Wilmington, supported by expanded commercial, wealth, and mortgage teams.
  • In Virginia, AUB commands 23.9% deposit market share, making it the largest bank headquartered in the state. There is significant growth opportunity in Maryland and North Carolina, where AUB’s market shares are 5.4% and 0.4%, respectively.
• Loan Portfolio & Asset Quality:
  • The loan portfolio is diversified, with commercial loans (including CRE and C&I) making up 40% of the total. CRE (including owner and non-owner occupied, multifamily, and construction) represents 60% of the portfolio.
  • Non-owner occupied office CRE exposure is well-diversified geographically and conservatively underwritten, with a loan loss reserve of 3.04% and very low delinquencies (0.35%) and criticized loans (10.46%).
  • Multifamily CRE loans are also diversified, with a loan loss reserve of 0.59% and NPLs at 1.88% (driven by a few recoded construction loans), with overall credit quality remaining strong.
  • Government contracting and national defense exposure is monitored closely, with minimal non-performing or criticized loans.
• Deposit Base and Liquidity:
  • Core deposits make up 90% of total deposits, with a low cost of deposits at 2.03% in Q4 2025. Customer deposit granularity remains high, reducing run-off risk.
  • Uninsured/uncollateralized deposits are well covered by available liquidity.
• Capital Management and Shareholder Returns:
  • Common share repurchases and dividend growth remain priorities, with over \$1.1 billion returned to shareholders since 2017. Dividend per share has grown at a 7% CAGR over 8 years.
  • The company targets a CET1 ratio of 9.5%-10.5%, with ratios above target at the end of 2025. Capital actions are focused on supporting organic growth and returning capital to shareholders.
• Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statements:
  • The company highlights risks including interest rate volatility, economic cycles, regulatory changes, competition (including fintech), credit risk (especially in CRE), and integration risks from acquisitions. Forward-looking statements are subject to uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from projections.

What Shareholders Should Know (Potentially Price Sensitive)

• The full integration of Sandy Spring Bancorp is expected to drive significant cost synergies, efficiency gains, and enhanced franchise value, which could positively impact earnings and valuation multiples.
• AUB’s 2026 guidance suggests continued top-quartile return metrics in ROTCE, ROA, and efficiency, supporting an investment thesis for premium valuation among regional banks.
• Dividend growth and capital return policies remain robust, and the company’s capital levels far exceed regulatory requirements, suggesting flexibility for further shareholder returns or strategic opportunities.
• The planned North Carolina expansion is a strategic move into a high-growth market, with new branches and commercial teams expected to drive organic growth and market share gains.
• Asset quality remains a strength, with low charge-offs, well-reserved loan portfolios, and no signs of emerging credit stress, even in the more scrutinized CRE sectors.
• Interest rate and macroeconomic assumptions underpinning 2026 guidance (including Fed rate cuts and stable economic conditions in their footprint) should be monitored, as deviations could impact NIM, loan growth, and credit costs.
• Investors should be aware of the company’s updated non-GAAP metrics and their impact on reported earnings, as well as the ongoing impact of purchase accounting from recent acquisitions.

Conclusion

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp. has positioned itself as the leading regional bank in the Mid-Atlantic, with a well-executed acquisition strategy, robust organic growth, strong capital levels, and a clear path to continued top-tier performance. Its 2026 outlook, ongoing shareholder returns, and strategic expansion into North Carolina are likely to be closely watched by investors and could be share-price moving events, especially as integration synergies from recent acquisitions flow through to earnings.

Disclaimer: This article is based on management’s investor presentation and forward-looking statements as of February-March 2026. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to economic conditions, interest rates, regulatory actions, and integration of acquisitions. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Please consult your financial advisor for personalized investment advice.

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