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Wednesday, October 15th, 2025

Global Banks 2025 Outlook: US Buybacks Surge, Asia Dividends Attractive Amid Rate Cuts and Asset Risks 1

Broker Name: DBS Bank
Date of Report: 3 October 2025
Excerpt from DBS Bank report.

Report Summary

  • US banks are boosting shareholder returns with large buybacks (USD20-50bn) and higher dividends (7-33% increase), driven by lighter regulation and lower capital requirements after 2025 stress tests.
  • Asia banks (e.g., Hang Seng, DBS, OCBC, UOB) are also returning capital via buybacks and stable or rising dividends, supported by strong capital buffers; China banks’ dividend yields remain attractive at 5-6% but are unlikely to rise further.
  • As the Fed begins its rate cut cycle, US banks benefit from rising loan growth and market activity offsetting NII pressure, while Asia banks rely on non-interest income and maintain attractive yields (4-10%) to buffer share prices.
  • Asset quality risks are notable for HK banks exposed to commercial real estate (CRE); risks for China banks are mostly priced in, while SG banks face moderate exposure.
  • DBS prefers US banks with clear restructuring and buyback stories and Asia banks with visible and stable dividends, but warns dividend cuts are possible if earnings decline.

Above is an excerpt from a report by DBS Bank. Clients of DBS Bank can be the first to access the full report from the DBS Bank website: https://www.dbs.com/

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