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Thursday, April 2nd, 2026

US Economy Outlook 2025: Mixed Signals, Trade Shifts, and Global Market Insights – DBS Weekly Macro Report

Broker Name: DBS Bank Ltd
Date of Report: October 6, 2025

Excerpt from DBS Bank Ltd report.

Report Summary

  • The US economy is showing mixed signals: while consumer spending remains robust and private investment (especially in AI) is surging, the labor market is cooling and business hiring intentions are weak.
  • US-China trade tensions have reduced bilateral trade, but the US is increasing imports from other regions, leading to a persistent and growing overall trade deficit.
  • Policy uncertainties (tariffs, government shutdown risk, immigration) and public sector drag are key headwinds, though 1.5-2% US GDP growth is still expected in the near term.
  • Central banks in Asia are mostly maintaining or easing rates, with Thailand and the Philippines highlighted for their upcoming decisions amid subdued inflation and softening growth.
  • Japan will see its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who supports continued fiscal and monetary stimulus, which could lead to increased market volatility and steeper yield curves.
  • FX markets remain volatile due to US political risks, potential US-China trade deals, and changing monetary policy expectations, particularly for the JPY, NZD, and USD.
  • Despite a US government shutdown, risk sentiment remains strong in credit and equity markets, with credit spreads at new lows and complacency a possible risk.
  • Forecasts show moderate growth and inflation across Asia and the US, with expectations for gradual monetary easing and stable-to-strong Asian currencies in 2025-2026.

above is an excerpt from a report by DBS Bank Ltd. Clients of DBS Bank Ltd can be the first to access the full report from the DBS Bank Ltd website : https://www.dbs.com.sg
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