Maybank Research Pte Ltd
Date of Report: September 23, 2025

Grab Holdings Accelerates Into the Autonomous Era: Financial, Strategic, and ESG Deep Dive

Introduction: Grab Holdings and Singapore’s Leap Into Autonomous Mobility

Grab Holdings, Southeast Asia’s leading superapp, has taken a bold step into the future of urban transport. In partnership with WeRide, Grab has launched Ai.R, Singapore’s first autonomous vehicle (AV) service in Punggol. This initiative not only cements Grab’s innovative edge but also positions Singapore at the forefront of the AV revolution in Asia. The partnership is a testament to Grab’s strong platform and operational capabilities, leveraging advanced technology to reshape urban mobility.

Breaking Down the Ai.R AV Launch: Singapore’s Autonomous Ambition

Grab and WeRide are deploying 11 autonomous vehicles in Punggol, including WeRide’s 5-seater GXR and 8-seater Robobus.
Both vehicle types have passed Singapore’s rigorous Milestone 1 (M1) safety assessment for public-road operations.
Ai.R will begin with two routes connecting key residential, retail, and transport nodes.
Passenger services are expected to commence by early 2026, each initially accompanied by a trained Grab Safety Operator.
Vehicles are equipped with 360° vision and LiDAR technology, detecting objects up to 200 meters away.

Global Context: Autonomous Vehicles in the Fast Lane

In the US, Waymo leads the robotaxi market with over 4 million rides in 2024 and 96 million rider-only miles projected by mid-2025.
Tesla and Zoox are expanding robotaxi services in Austin and Las Vegas.
In China, Baidu’s Apollo Go, Pony.ai, AutoX, and WeRide operate large AV fleets, with Apollo Go surpassing 14 million cumulative AV rides by mid-2025, including 2.2 million in 2Q25.
Hong Kong has launched a formal AV pilot regime, while Dubai targets 25% of all trips via AVs by 2030.

Financial Impact: What AV Means for Grab’s Bottom Line

Grab stands to benefit significantly from AV adoption in Singapore.
By 2030, AV operational costs could drop to USD0.52 per mile (with technological deflation), while driver costs could rise to USD0.85 per mile with 4% annual inflation.
If 20% of Grab’s Singapore fleet transitions to AVs, annual savings could reach around USD71 million, boosting net present value (NPV) by approximately 7%.
Grab’s early AV partnerships (with A2Z and WeRide) and operational strength via Grab Rentals position it as both a platform and fleet operator.
A strong balance sheet supports infrastructure investment and mitigates the risk posed by potential AV-only ride-hailing entrants such as Tesla.

Competitive Landscape and Strategic Risks

Grab’s leadership is challenged by a better-capitalized Gojek and the entry of XanhSM into multiple ASEAN markets.
Take-rates are already high versus global peers; further monetization may be limited.
Rising cost pressures and inflation could impact consumer spending and driver-partner earnings.
Grab’s market share remains robust, but the competitive intensity could flare up again.

Share Price and Financial Highlights

Grab’s share price as of the report date: USD 6.43.
12-month price target: USD 5.85 (down 9% from current).
Market capitalization: USD 28.2 billion.
Major shareholders: Uber Technologies (13.9%), SB Investment Advisers (10.5%), Toyota Motor Corp. (5.8%).

Peer and Precedent Company Analysis: Global AV and Ride-Hailing Players

Baidu (BIDU US): Not rated; key player in China’s AV market.
Tesla (TSLA US): Not rated; advancing FSD and robotaxi initiatives in the US.
Waymo (subsidiary of Alphabet/GOOG US): Unlisted; leads US AV deployments.
Zoox (subsidiary of Amazon/AMZN US): Unlisted; robotaxi expansion in Las Vegas.
Uber (UBER US): Not rated; global ride-hailing competitor.
WeRide (WRD US): Not rated; Grab’s partner for Singapore’s AV pilot.
Pony.ai (PONY US): Not rated; major Chinese AV operator.

Structural Growth Drivers and Market Risks

Grab enjoys a leadership position across ASEAN, benefiting from structural scale advantages.
The ASEAN market remains underpenetrated, providing ample room for growth.
Growth headwinds include high take-rates, rising cost pressures, and increased competition, especially from XanhSM in Vietnam and Indonesia.
Grab’s GMV market share remains robust relative to competitors.

Swing Factors for Grab’s Outlook

• Upside Catalysts: Softer competition, improved macroeconomic conditions, sustained reduction in incentives, better ecosystem benefits in financial services, and easing monetary policy by the US Fed.
• Downside Risks: Intensified competition, increased incentives due to tightening driver supply, decline in on-demand usage due to price increases, and large stake divestments by major shareholders like Softbank.

ESG Analysis: Environmental, Social, and Governance Performance

Grab avoided over 349,986 tonnes of GHG emissions in 2023.
6.3% of travel distance in 2023 was on low or zero-emission modes.
Introduction of a carbon offset feature, allowing consumers to contribute USD0.10 per ride.
Commitment to WWF-Singapore’s ‘No Plastic in Nature by 2030’ pledge.
Board consists of seven members (five independent, two co-founders), including two women.
Notable governance structure: Class B shares have 45 votes each versus 1 vote for Class A; CEO Anthony Tan controls 64.1% of total voting power with only 3.9% of actual shares.
44% women in workforce (2023), 36% women in management.
46% of driver-partners did not earn income before joining Grab; 1,100 deaf or physically impaired partners on the platform.
Up to 30% commission for F&B partners; previous losses for hawkers mitigated by rebates.
Grab’s overall ESG score: 46 (above average).

Targets and Progress

Zero Packaging Waste by 2040: 0% achieved.
Carbon Neutral by 2040: 0% achieved.
4,200 partners with disabilities by 2025: 3,184 achieved.
100% renewable energy in premises by 2030: 11% achieved.
Women in leadership to 40% by 2030: 36% achieved.
Less than 0.5 accidents per 100,000 trips: 0.08 achieved.

Financial Ratios and Balance Sheet Strength

Revenue growth expected at a CAGR of 14% (2023-2026E).
Free cash flow (ex-working capital) forecast to reach USD 440 million in FY25E.
Net income breakeven projected for FY25E.
Grab has maintained a net cash position with strong liquidity ratios.

Conclusion: Grab’s Strategic Position and Outlook

Grab is well-placed to benefit from the transition to autonomous vehicles in Singapore and potentially the broader ASEAN region. While competitive and macroeconomic risks persist, the company’s technological partnerships, strong balance sheet, robust ESG framework, and operational scale provide a foundation for sustainable growth. Investors should watch for progress on AV deployment, cost efficiencies, and Grab’s ability to maintain market leadership amid evolving competition and regulatory landscapes.

Other Companies Mentioned: Key Roles in the Evolving AV and Ride-Hailing Ecosystem

Baidu (BIDU US): Major AV operator in China, driving Apollo Go.
Tesla (TSLA US): Expanding Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi services.
Waymo (Alphabet/GOOG US): Unlisted leader in US robotaxi market.
Zoox (Amazon/AMZN US): Deploying AVs in Las Vegas.
Uber (UBER US): Major shareholder in Grab, global ride-hailing competitor.
WeRide (WRD US): Grab’s partner for Ai.R, significant AV deployments in China and Singapore.
Pony.ai (PONY US): Expanding AV pilot zones in China.
Grab Holdings’ foray into AVs marks a pivotal moment for Southeast Asian mobility, with the potential to reshape urban transportation, enhance profitability, and set new ESG benchmarks for the industry.