📊 Hongkong Land Rallies, but Charts Hint at Near-Term Caution
HK:0004.HK:Hongkong Land
Hongkong Land (HKL) has emerged as one of the top-performing Straits Times Index components in 2025 up to Sept 19, trailing only ST Engineering and DFI Retail Group. Shares have climbed as investors welcomed its strategy of divesting non-core assets at NAV and repurchasing shares at a discount. The company’s CEO, with stints at Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Mapletree Investments, has overseen the narrowing of HKL’s discount to NAV from 0.25x in January to 0.49x by Sept 19 — driven by rising prices, not falling NAV.
Technically, signals show caution. While HKL’s momentum and RSI are at 10-year highs, a weekly candlestick pattern with a long upper shadow at US$7.45 suggests prices may be running ahead. Near-term support lies at US$6.00.
SGX:STI.SI:Straits Times Index
The Straits Times Index continues its staircase-like uptrend, though immediate moves may be softer. Support sits at 4,240, just below its 50-day moving average of 4,247, with a breakout at 4,280 pointing to an eventual target of 4,500.
SGX:FSTAS8670.SI:FTSE REIT Index
The FTSE REIT Index nearly touched its upside target of 720 before retreating to 698 by Sept 19. Support is seen at the rising 50-day moving average of 681.
SGX:SG10Y.SI:10-Year Singapore Government Securities
The 10-year Singapore Government Securities yield ticked up from 1.77% on Sept 18 to 1.80% on Sept 19. Analysts caution that large-scale global tech investments, such as the US$500 billion Stargate project in the US and GBP155 billion plans in the UK, could eventually draw liquidity away from regional markets.
📈 Wall Street Hits Fresh Highs as Fed Kicks Off 2025 Rate Cuts
US:DGT:Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% to close at 46,315.27, marking a fresh record on Sept 19.
SGX:S27.SI:S&P 500
The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to 6,664.36, its second straight record close.
US:QQQ:Nasdaq Composite
The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.7% to 22,631.48, extending the rally in tech stocks.
US:FDX:FedEx
FedEx gained 2.4% after posting stronger quarterly profits, buoyed by cost cuts and resilient demand in its US business.
US:AAPL:Apple
Apple jumped 3.2% as the company’s latest iPhone launch drew long queues, pointing to robust consumer demand.
Analysts credited the Federal Reserve’s Sept 17 decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the upbeat sentiment. Traders are betting on two more cuts this year. But some warned of risks ahead: Cresset Capital’s Jack Ablin flagged rising US Treasury yields as a concern, cautioning that “the market is expensive and the 10-year yield is moving higher.”
📰 Ray Dalio Warns US Debt Spiral Threatens Global Monetary Order
SINGAPORE – Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned that the United States’ inability to rein in runaway spending is putting the global monetary system at risk, raising questions about the durability of American financial dominance.
Speaking at the FutureChina Global Forum in Singapore on Friday, the Bridgewater Associates founder said the US will spend about US$7 trillion this year while collecting just US$5 trillion in revenue. With interest payments and rollovers of maturing debt, Dalio estimated the Treasury will need to sell US$12 trillion in debt.
“The market in the world does not have that same sort of demand for that debt, and that creates a supply-demand imbalance,” Dalio cautioned, calling the surge in borrowing a reflection of “human nature.”
Dalio, a long-time critic of Washington’s fiscal inaction, said both Republicans and Democrats have resisted confronting the country’s debt problem. He warned this could signal a broader decline in US power: “Other factors together will determine whether we’re seeing the end of the entire US empire.”
Joining him on the panel, Ng Kok Song, founding partner of Avanda Investment Management, said the ballooning deficit threatens the strength and supremacy of the US dollar, adding that “the US has reached the tipping point.”
Dalio noted that Trump administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are becoming more proactive in addressing the challenges. “There is a greater realization of these problems and greater proactiveness to be able to deal with them than there was before, by a lot,” he said.
Ng added that the US is not alone, with the UK, France and China facing similar strains. But uncertainty remains: “We do not know when the crisis is going to unfold.”
Dalio concluded by cautioning that fiat currencies globally face challenges in preserving wealth. “We are seeing non-fiat currencies become the storehold of wealth,” he said, pointing to gold and cryptocurrencies as alternatives.
🌐 Southbound Flows, Tencent Buyback, and Banks Trim HKD Rates Drive Hong Kong Market Buzz
HK:0412.HK:SDHG
SDHG attracted HKD2.2 billion in Southbound net inflows on Sept 19, topping the list among actively traded counters.
HK:9988.HK:Alibaba Group (BABA-W)
Alibaba Group (BABA-W) recorded HKD1.7 billion in Southbound net inflows, reflecting continued investor interest.
HK:3690.HK:Meituan (MEITUAN-W)
Meituan (MEITUAN-W) saw HKD847.7 million of Southbound net inflows, adding to strong buying momentum.
HK:0700.HK:Tencent
Tencent posted HKD622.2 million in Southbound outflows but simultaneously repurchased 857,000 shares worth about HKD550 million at prices between HKD638.5 and HKD647. Since May 14, the tech giant has bought back nearly 59.9 million shares, equivalent to 0.65% of its issued capital.
HK:1810.HK:Xiaomi (XIAOMI-W)
Xiaomi registered HKD398.3 million in Southbound outflows, extending recent selling pressure.
HK:6869.HK:YOFC
YOFC logged HKD48.1 million in Southbound outflows, continuing to see weaker sentiment.
Shanghai Commercial Bank
Shanghai Commercial Bank announced it will cut its HKD Prime rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.375%, effective Sept 22.
Dah Sing Bank
Dah Sing Bank also said it will reduce its HKD Prime rate to 5.375%, following sector peers in lowering borrowing costs.
HK:1929.HK:Chow Tai Fook
Chow Tai Fook said it will raise fixed-price gold rates starting October, aligning with higher global bullion prices.
US:BX:Blackstone
Blackstone committed to investing GBP90 billion in the UK over the next decade, marking one of its largest pledges in Europe.
🚀 Hong Kong Market Buzz: Autos, Casinos, Research Upgrades Power Rally
HK:2238.HK:GAC Group
GAC Group and Huawei Qiankun launched a new auto brand named Qijing, strengthening ties between automakers and tech giants.
HK:2020.HK:ANTA Sports
HK:6110.HK:TOPSPORTS
Citi expects ANTA Sports and TOPSPORTS to benefit from Amer Sports’ upgraded Q3 earnings guidance, citing stronger momentum for the sportswear sector.
HK:0027.HK:Galaxy Entertainment
CLSA highlighted Galaxy Entertainment’s strong cash reserves, noting the casino operator could boost returns via leverage and increase its dividend payout ratio.
HK:0027.HK:Galaxy Entertainment
HK:2282.HK:MGM China
Barclays raised its Macau 2025 GGR forecast by 6%, saying wealth effects from stock markets and improved tourist safety will support growth. Both Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China were cited as gaining market share.
HK:3800.HK:GCL Technology
Goldman Sachs raised its target price for GCL Technology to HK$1.20, even as it warned domestic polysilicon prices may fall.
HK:0906.HK:China South City Holdings (NCI)
Morgan Stanley cut its target price for NCI to HK$37.9, keeping an Underweight rating.
HK:2499.HK:Mixue Group
Bank of America Securities slashed its target price for Mixue Group to HK$390, maintaining an Underperform rating.
HK:2628.HK:China Life
Morgan Stanley raised its target price for China Life slightly to HK$25.7 while keeping an Overweight call.
HK:2318.HK:Ping An Insurance
Morgan Stanley increased its target price for Ping An Insurance to HK$70, reiterating an Overweight rating.
HK:6098.HK:Country Garden Services (CG Services)
CLSA lifted its target price for Country Garden Services to HK$7.10, while maintaining a Hold rating.
🔥 Hong Kong & China Stocks Buzz: Big Moves in Xiaomi, CATL, SDHG, and Fresh IPO Surges
HK:0388.HK:HKEX
Goldman Sachs raised its target price for HKEX to HK$544, saying the market is underestimating Southbound trading activity.
HK:1810.HK:Xiaomi (XIAOMI-W)
Xiaomi rolled out an OTA car software upgrade with parking assist, lane-keeping aid, and anti-maloperation features. Separately, the automaker recalled over 110,000 SU7 Standard Edition EVs, citing safety checks.
HK:1310.HK:HKBN
HKBN plunged 8.6% after recently hitting a three-year high, as its share offer was completed.
HK:2013.HK:Weimob Inc
Weimob Inc surged 15%+ after raising more than HK$1.5 billion through a discounted share placement to Infini Capital.
US:BIDU:Baidu (BIDU-SW)
Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy on Baidu, citing accelerated value creation from its AI strategy.
SZ:300750:CATL
CATL jumped 3% to a record high while CLSA lifted its target price to HK$670 with an Outperform rating.
HK:1772.HK:Ganfeng Lithium
Ganfeng Lithium rocketed 10% on strong demand and full-capacity production.
HK:0027.HK:Galaxy Entertainment / HK:2282.HK:MGM China
CLSA highlighted accelerated growth in China’s online pharmacy market, driven by prescription drugs.
US:MLCO:Melco Resorts & Entertainment
Melco Resorts will shut down Grand Dragon Casino and Mocha Kuong Fat next week, reallocating existing gaming tables to other properties.
HK:0020.HK:SenseTime (SENSETIME-W)
HSBC Research lifted its target price for SenseTime to HK$3.10, but kept a Hold rating, warning of margin and competition pressures.
HK:0412.HK:SDHG
SDHG crashed 50% after the SFC flagged high shareholding concentration in the stock.
HK:0012.HK:Henderson Land / HK:0083.HK:Sino Land
JPMorgan expects Hong Kong banks to keep cutting rates and named Henderson Land and Sino Land its top homebuilder picks.
US:SPGI:S&P Global / HK:9988.HK:Alibaba (Alibaba Cloud)
S&P Global and Alibaba Cloud formed a strategic partnership to deliver AI-ready commodities data in China for the first time.
HK:2195.HK:GenFleet Therapeutics (GENFLEET-B)
GenFleet Therapeutics soared 115.8% on debut, closing at HK$44.
HK:2899.HK:Zijin Mining / HK:1818.HK:Zhaojin Mining
Zhaojin Mining invested US$30 million in Zijin Gold International, strengthening cooperation in the gold sector.
Citi Downgrades Intel Despite Nvidia Partnership, Warns Struggles Will Persist
US:INTC:Intel Corp
Citi downgraded Intel to Sell from Neutral, cautioning that the chipmaker’s rally on the back of its $5 billion deal with Nvidia is overdone. Analyst Christopher Danely raised his price target slightly to $29 from $24, but the target still implies a 5.1% downside from Thursday’s close.
Intel shares had surged more than 22%, their biggest one-day gain since October 1987, after the Nvidia investment was announced. However, Citi argues Intel’s foundry ambitions face “minimal chance to succeed” and remain overly priced into the stock.
US:NVDA:Nvidia Corp
Under the partnership, Intel will integrate Nvidia’s graphics into its CPUs and build processors for Nvidia’s AI platforms. But Citi doubts the move will improve competitiveness against Advanced Micro Devices (US:AMD:Advanced Micro Devices), which already delivers strong multicore CPUs at lower prices.
Citi also flagged limited financial upside from the tie-up, estimating the target market at just $1 billion to $2 billion.
US:AMD:Advanced Micro Devices
Citi highlighted AMD as the bigger beneficiary in the PC chip market, stressing that Intel’s reliance on Nvidia’s graphics integration does little to strengthen its core CPU performance — the key determinant in PC competitiveness.
Small-Cap Rally Heats Up: Russell 2000 Hits Record High on Fed Rate Cut Optimism
US:RUT:Russell 2000 Index
The Russell 2000 surged to a fresh record on Thursday, surpassing its 2021 peak and marking its seventh straight week of gains — the longest streak since 2020. Traders have piled into small-cap stocks ahead of the Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle. The Fed cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points this month, fueling optimism for further upside.
Canaccord Genuity noted that historically, when the Fed cuts rates after a prolonged pause of at least 126 trading days, the Russell 2000 has returned an average 35% over the following 12 months.
US:IWM:iShares Russell 2000 ETF
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which tracks the benchmark, also hit a new high. Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis said the ETF reached an “inverse head-and-shoulders pattern target” triggered in June, setting up a potential run toward $280, about 14.4% above Thursday’s close.
Cappelleri cautioned that IWM has struggled to break meaningfully above the 245 zone, but added that “there is clear precedent for meaningful follow-through in the months — and potentially years — ahead.”
ASML Target Raised by Bank of America as Intel-Nvidia Deal Boosts Chip Equipment Demand
US:ASML:ASML Holding NV
Bank of America raised its price target on ASML to $1,082 from $833, citing stronger demand for semiconductor equipment following the $5 billion Intel–Nvidia partnership. The new target signals a 16% upside from Thursday’s close of $932.15.
Analyst Didier Scemama noted that while the Intel–Nvidia deal stops short of a foundry agreement, a more competitive Intel in datacenters and PCs should benefit semiconductor capital equipment makers. “Demand for lithography equipment, used in chip production, has risen this year — a boon for ASML,” he added.
ASML shares are up roughly 16% year-to-date, though they remained flat in the last session despite the bullish revision. Consensus sentiment remains positive, with 10 analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and five at Hold, according to LSEG data.
Looking ahead, BofA projects 2027 could see 21% revenue growth for ASML, supported by the opening of new U.S. fabs by Intel, Samsung and TSMC.
Intel Soars on Nvidia Investment as Options Traders Bet on More Upside
Shares of Intel (INTC) staged their biggest one-day rally since 1987 on Thursday, jumping nearly 23% after Nvidia (NVDA) announced a $5 billion investment and a partnership to develop new PC and data center chips. Nvidia’s stock also advanced more than 3%, lifting its market value to about $4.3 trillion.
The surge follows a month of dramatic developments. The U.S. government, under the Trump administration, invested $8.9 billion for a 10% stake in Intel, providing the struggling chipmaker with much-needed support. President Donald Trump, who had publicly criticized Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan over potential China-related conflicts, reversed course after meeting Tan and backed the company.
With Washington and Nvidia now backing Intel, investors say a safety net — dubbed the “Intel Put” — has been established, boosting confidence in the company’s turnaround potential.
Options traders are already positioning for more upside. One strategy executed on Thursday was a risk reversal: selling the Nov. 21 $30 put for $2.55 and buying the Nov. 21 $32 call for $2.15, creating a slight credit spread of $0.40, or $40 per lot. The trade implies willingness to own Intel at an effective price of $29.60 if shares fall, while leaving room to capture further gains if the rally extends.
Despite being up nearly 50% year-to-date, analysts say Intel’s role in U.S. technology and national security makes it a stock to watch as it works to regain its footing in the AI-driven chip race.
The Federal Reserve’s pivot toward easier monetary policy is reviving fears of an asset bubble, with Wall Street’s “Magnificent Seven” tech giants in the spotlight.
The Fed’s decision to cut rates despite sticky inflation has raised concerns that aggressive easing could overheat the economy. Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper warned on CNBC’s Squawk Box that lowering rates too quickly risks stoking inflation. “If they go too much more on interest rates … it gets into the danger territory. You’ve got to be careful not to make things too hot,” he cautioned.
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett called Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Nvidia and Tesla the “best bubble proxy today.” Since the March 2023 market bottom, the group has surged 223%, propelling the broader market to record highs. Hartnett noted the stocks trade at 39 times trailing earnings and nearly 20% above their 200-day moving average — hallmarks of speculative excess.
BofA compared the gains to history’s great market manias, from the dot-com boom in 2000 to China’s A-share frenzy in 2007. The “Magnificent Seven” are already closing in on that bubble benchmark, with their rally nearing the 244% average advance seen in past blow-offs.
Thank you
