CGS International Securities
September 17, 2025
Singapore’s Export Slump: Tariffs and Weak Demand Shadow 2025 Outlook
Singapore’s Export Performance: Sharp Downturn Amid Tariff Headwinds
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) suffered a dramatic setback in August 2025, plunging by 11.3% year-on-year—the steepest drop since March 2024. Both electronics and non-electronics segments contributed to this decline, underscoring broad-based weakness across the export landscape. The actual figures were well below consensus expectations, reflecting the challenging global demand environment and persistent tariff risks.
Detailed Breakdown: NODX Key Metrics
| Metric |
Aug 2025 |
Jul 2025 |
Consensus |
CGSI Forecast |
YoY % Change |
| NODX YoY % |
-11.3 |
4.7 |
0.8 |
-1.4 |
-11.3 |
| Trade Balance (S\$ bn) |
4.9 |
7.1 |
– |
– |
-30.99% |
Electronics and Non-Electronics: Both Segments Contracted Significantly
- Electronic exports: Dropped 6.5% YoY, hurt by steep falls in disk media (-28.1%), integrated circuits (-7.4%), and PC parts (-36.9%).
- Non-electronics exports: Declined 13.0% YoY, led by specialised machinery (-29.1%), food preparations (-51.4%), and petrochemicals (-23.2%).
Country-Level Export Performance: US Weakness, Asia Mixed
Exports to the United States continued to contract, falling 28.8% YoY in August after a 42.8% plunge in July. This was driven by significant drops in specialised machinery (-71.3%) and disk media products (-60.0%). The US demand slump is closely tied to ongoing tariffs, with importers exercising increased caution and signaling the potential for further tariffs—particularly on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
In contrast, shipments to Taiwan (+9.1%), South Korea (+24.8%), and the European Union (+28.9%) remained positive but showed slower growth compared to July, illustrating a mixed global demand environment.
| Export Destination |
% Share |
Aug 2025 YoY % |
Jul 2025 YoY % |
| China |
14.5 |
-21.5 |
-12.3 |
| US |
11.9 |
-28.8 |
-42.8 |
| EU |
10.2 |
28.9 |
77.1 |
| Malaysia |
9.1 |
-9.3 |
-9.8 |
| South Korea |
6.2 |
24.8 |
34.5 |
| Taiwan |
8.7 |
9.1 |
62.8 |
Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities: Electronics and Pharmaceuticals Under Pressure
The electronics sector, particularly semiconductors and PC parts, is highly exposed to tariff uncertainties and global demand fluctuations.
Pharmaceuticals also face downside risks, as US tariff policy remains unsettled.
Singapore’s Trade Balance: Narrowing Surplus Signals Pressure
Singapore’s trade surplus narrowed to S$4.9 billion in August 2025, down from S$7.1 billion in July. This reflects the weaker export performance and the dampening effect of external risks on trade flows.
Outlook: Global Demand and Tariff Risks to Weigh on Recovery
Enterprise Singapore continues to monitor tariff developments, with potential revisions to the official NODX forecast likely if market conditions worsen. CGS International Securities maintains its 2025 NODX growth forecast at 3.3% YoY, slightly above Enterprise Singapore’s projection range of 1.0% to 3.0%.
Singapore’s Export Components: Detailed Breakdown
| Product Category |
Aug 2025 YoY % |
Jul 2025 YoY % |
% Share |
| Integrated Circuits (ICs) |
-7.4 |
8.0 |
11.8 |
| Disk Media Products |
-28.1 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
| PC Parts |
-36.9 |
-34.2 |
0.6 |
| Pharmaceuticals |
15.7 |
-18.9 |
7.0 |
| Petrochemicals |
-23.2 |
-23.4 |
7.1 |
Macro Forecasts: Singapore and Regional Outlook
| Country |
2023 GDP Growth (%) |
2024 GDP Growth (%) |
2025F GDP Growth (%) |
2026F GDP Growth (%) |
2025F Headline Inflation (%) |
2025F Unemployment Rate (%) |
2025F Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
2025F Current Account (% GDP) |
| Singapore |
2.2 |
4.4 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
16.4 |
| Malaysia |
3.5 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
-3.8 |
1.2 |
| Indonesia |
5.1 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
1.8 |
4.7 |
-2.5 |
-0.5 |
| Thailand |
1.9 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
-4.0 |
1.2 |
Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in Singapore’s Export Sector
Singapore’s export sector faces formidable challenges in 2025, with broad-based declines across key categories and persistent tariff-related risks. Electronics and pharmaceuticals remain particularly vulnerable, while the narrowing trade surplus and sharp drop in US-bound shipments signal ongoing external pressure.
Despite these headwinds, CGS International Securities maintains its cautiously optimistic forecast for modest export growth, with the expectation that global demand will remain subdued and tariff developments will continue to shape the landscape. Investors and market participants should closely watch policy signals, sector-specific vulnerabilities, and export performance across key markets as Singapore navigates the evolving global trade environment.
