Broker: OCBC Investment Research
Date of Report: 12 September 2025
Singapore Post Faces Uncertainty Amid Strategic Reset and Major Shareholder Moves: Full Analysis and Outlook
Executive Summary: SPOST at a Crossroads
Singapore Post (SPOST), a stalwart in Singapore’s postal and logistics landscape, finds itself in a period of significant transition. After a major divestment and with key shareholders reevaluating their stakes, SPOST is searching for a new strategic direction and leadership. This article provides a comprehensive breakdown of the company’s current situation, financials, risks, and the competitive landscape, based on the latest broker analysis.
Investment Thesis: Navigating the Next Chapter
- Company Profile: SPOST is a leading postal and e-commerce logistics provider in Singapore and the Asia Pacific, serving over 220 global destinations. It is currently pivoting from traditional mail to international logistics and e-commerce fulfillment to counter the global decline in letter mail volumes.
- Strategic Reset: The company is in talks with the Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) to ensure the sustainability of its postal network, while actively exploring new growth engines after divesting its Australia business in March 2025 for AUD1.02 billion.
- Shareholder Overhang: Recent reductions in shareholding by Alibaba and potential moves by SingTel have exerted pressure on the share price, creating an overhang and raising questions about the future shareholding structure.
- Leadership Search: SPOST is seeking a new CEO to lead its next phase, and the long-term outlook will depend on the strategic direction set by incoming management.
- Valuation: The broker has reduced its fair value estimate from SGD0.495 to SGD0.44, maintaining a HOLD rating due to limited near-term catalysts and uncertainty surrounding future growth.
Major Shareholder Developments and Ongoing Uncertainty
- Alibaba Divestment: Alibaba, previously the second-largest shareholder, reduced its stake from 11.3% to 4.6%, ending its status as a substantial shareholder. This move followed the unwinding of cross-shareholdings with SPOST in Quantium Solutions International (QSI) and 4PX.
- SingTel’s Position: SingTel remains the largest shareholder with a ~22% stake but has announced intentions to review and divest non-core assets. While a full divestment is considered low probability, it remains a risk.
- Temasek’s Restructuring: The outcome of Temasek Holdings’ ongoing restructuring could also impact SPOST’s future.
Financials at a Glance: Recent Performance and Outlook
| Metric |
FY25 |
FY26E |
FY27E |
| Revenue (SGD m) |
814 |
557 |
559 |
| EBIT (SGD m) |
42 |
22 |
26 |
| PATMI (SGD m) |
254.1 |
17.0 |
10.3 |
| EPS (S cents) |
10.4 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
| DPS (S cents) |
9.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
| Dividend Yield (%) |
21.7 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
| ROE (%) |
18.6 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
Key Financial Ratios and Historical Performance
| Financial Metric |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
| Revenue (SGD m) |
1,404.7 |
1,665.6 |
1,872.3 |
879.2 |
813.7 |
| Gross Profit (SGD m) |
562.5 |
614.6 |
658.2 |
434.8 |
434.8 |
| Operating Income (SGD m) |
73.6 |
115.2 |
89.1 |
33.9 |
256.8 |
| Net Income (SGD m) |
47.6 |
83.1 |
24.7 |
78.3 |
245.1 |
| Return on Equity (%) |
2.03 |
4.74 |
1.04 |
2.27 |
14.86 |
| Operating Margin (%) |
5.24 |
6.91 |
4.76 |
3.86 |
31.56 |
| Net Debt/Equity |
-0.03 |
0.11 |
0.15 |
0.39 |
-0.24 |
Valuation and Peer Analysis: Positioning Among Regional Players
| Company (Ticker) |
P/E (FY26E) |
P/E (FY27E) |
P/B (FY26E) |
P/B (FY27E) |
EV/EBITDA (FY26E) |
EV/EBITDA (FY27E) |
Dividend Yield (FY26E %) |
Dividend Yield (FY27E %) |
ROE (FY26E %) |
ROE (FY27E %) |
| Singapore Post (SPOS.SI) |
41.0 |
37.4 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
7.8 |
7.7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
| Deutsche Post AG (DHLN.DE) |
12.8 |
11.6 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
14.9 |
16.0 |
| Pos Malaysia (PSHL.KL) |
– |
– |
1.0 |
1.4 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
| GDEX BHD (GDEX.KL) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
| Yamato Holdings (9064.T) |
28.3 |
19.5 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
9.6 |
8.1 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
4.6 |
6.9 |
Valuation Methodology: SOTP Breakdown
| Division |
FY26E EBITDA (SGD’m) |
EV/EBITDA Multiple (x) |
Value (SGD’m) |
% of SOTP |
Comments |
| Singapore / International |
55.4 |
6.0 |
332.5 |
27% |
Core logistics |
| Property & Non-core assets |
– |
– |
1,017 |
81% |
SingPost Centre fair value |
| Net cash / (debt) |
-96.3 |
– |
-8% |
Includes perpetual securities |
– |
| Discount |
– |
– |
-25% |
– |
SOTP valuation applied |
| ESG Premium |
– |
– |
5% |
– |
Reflects governance strength |
| Total Valuation |
– |
– |
986.6 |
– |
– |
ESG Leadership and Corporate Governance
- Corporate Governance: SPOST stands out among global peers for its robust governance. The board is majority independent, and both audit and risk committees are fully independent.
- Labour Management: Employee management initiatives are in line with industry standards.
- Environmental Stewardship: The company is actively mitigating its carbon footprint, notably through the electrification of its delivery fleet in Singapore.
Segment and Geographic Revenue Breakdown
| Segment |
% of FY25 Revenue |
| Singapore |
40.1% |
| International |
60.7% |
| Australia |
1.5% |
| Eliminations |
-2.4% |
Potential Catalysts for SPOST’s Recovery
- Value-accretive acquisitions in Asia Pacific at reasonable valuation multiples
- Structural solutions to ensure commercial viability of the core postal business
- Possible injection of property assets into a REIT structure
Key Risks Facing Singapore Post
- Heightened competition in logistics and mail segments
- Risks related to acquisition integration and execution challenges
- Prolonged slowdown in e-commerce demand, affecting logistics volumes
- Potential further divestments by major shareholders
Company Overview: Operations, Reach, and Market Position
- Founded in 1858, SPOST has evolved into an integrated logistics and warehouse solutions provider, with operations spanning national and international mail, freight forwarding, last mile delivery, and property leasing.
- SPOST operates in 14 markets globally, employing about 3,000 staff.
- SingPost Centre remains a significant property asset within its portfolio.
Conclusion: Hold Rating Maintained Amid Uncertainty
While Singapore Post is taking decisive steps to reposition itself for the future, uncertainty surrounding major shareholders, leadership changes, and the ongoing strategic review suggest caution for investors. The revised fair value estimate of SGD0.44 and HOLD rating reflect limited immediate upside, with future prospects hinging on the success of its strategic reset and the ability of new leadership to deliver sustainable growth.
Investors should monitor developments around shareholder structure and new management appointments closely, as these will likely be key determinants of SPOST’s medium- to long-term trajectory.
