Sunday, September 14th, 2025

China’s KRAS Contender: GenFleet-B (2595) Priced Cheap vs 18A Peers — Can Cornerstones Spark a Debut Pop?

Global Offering Details

  • Company: GenFleet Therapeutics (Shanghai) Inc. (劲方医药科技(上海)股份有限公司)

  • Stock Code: 2595 (Main Board, HKEX)

  • Offer Shares: 77,600,000 H Shares

    • Hong Kong Public Offering: 7,760,000 H Shares

    • International Offering: 69,840,000 H Shares

  • Offer Price: HK$20.39 per H Share

  • Nominal Value: RMB 0.1 per H Share

  • Listing Date: Expected September 19, 2025

  • Application Method: Fully electronic via White Form eIPO or HKSCC EIPO channel

  • Minimum Application: 200 H Shares (HK$4,119.13 including fees)


Expected Timetable

  • Public Offering Opens: Sept 11, 2025, 9:00 a.m.

  • Application Deadline: Sept 16, 2025, 11:30 a.m.

  • Application Lists Close: Sept 16, 2025, 12:00 noon

  • Allotment Results Announced: Sept 18, 2025, 11:00 p.m.

  • Refunds Dispatched: Sept 19, 2025

  • Dealings Commence: Sept 19, 2025, 9:00 a.m.


Company Overview

  • Founded: 2017

  • Focus: Novel treatments in oncology (solid tumors) and autoimmune/inflammatory diseases

  • Pipeline: 8 product candidates, 5 under clinical development

    • Core Products:

      • GFH925 (Fulzerasib, Dupert®) – KRAS G12C inhibitor, approved in China for NSCLC (1st in China, 3rd globally).

      • GFH375 – KRAS G12D inhibitor, in Phase II clinical trial (no approved global competitors yet).

  • Other Candidates: GFH276 (pan-RAS), GFS784 (FAScon ADC), GFH312 (RIPK1 inhibitor for PBC), GFH009 (CDK9 inhibitor), GFH018 (TGF-βR1 inhibitor), GFS202A (bispecific antibody).


Pipeline Milestones

  • GFH925:

    • Approved in China (Aug 2024) for KRAS G12C-mutated NSCLC

    • Phase II ongoing in Europe (combo with Cetuximab, KORCUS trial)

    • Phase III trial planned in U.S./EU Q4 2025

  • GFH375:

    • Phase I/II trials ongoing in China (NSCLC, CRC, PDAC)

    • Out-licensed to Verastem for development outside Greater China (U.S. trial started June 2025)

  • GFH312:

    • NMPA approved Phase II clinical trial for PBC (May 2025)


Financial & Market Outlook

  • KRAS G12C Market:

    • Global market size: US$489M (2024) → US$3.49B (2033)

    • CAGR: 24.4%

    • NSCLC incidence in China: 947k (2024) → 1.12M (2033)

  • KRAS G12D Market:

    • Most prevalent KRAS variant, 29% of mutations in human cancers

    • Major target in pancreatic, colorectal, and lung cancers

  • PBC Market:

    • Global: US$1.15B (2024) → US$1.54B (2033)

    • China: US$232M (2024) → US$284M (2033)


Risks Highlighted

  • Heavy reliance on early-stage pipeline (core products still under trials outside China)

  • Substantial R&D costs expected to continue

  • Competitive oncology landscape with multiple global players

  • Commercial success depends on regulatory approvals, clinical trial outcomes, and market adoption

    Peer comparison — valuation & operating metrics (today)

    Company Listing P/E (ttm) P/B (mrq) Price/Sales (ttm) Mkt Cap (HKD) Rev. YoY Gross margin R&D / Revenue Net loss margin
    GenFleet-B (IPO) Main Bd N/A (pre-profit) 4.03× (20.39/5.06) N/A ~HK$7.0b (post-IPO, est.) +42.0% (2024 vs 2023) 80.8% (2024) 317% (2024) −647% (2024)
    Jacobio-B (1167.HK) Main Bd N/A 8.6× 36.3× ~HK$8.15b
    Ascentage-B (6855.HK) Main Bd N/A ~37–40× ~67–70× ~HK$12.1b
    RemeGen-B (9995.HK) Main Bd N/A ~21–24× ~26–28×
    Kelun Biotech-B (6990.HK) Main Bd N/A ~20–22× ~65–69× ~HK$11.4b
    Akeso (9926.HK) Main Bd N/A (fwd P/E quoted) ~17–18× ~43× ~HK$125b

    Notes (GenFleet math): Prospectus shows unaudited pro forma NAV per share = HK$5.06 at the offer price HK$20.39 ⇒ P/B ≈ 4.03×; 2024 revenue RMB104.7m vs 2023 RMB73.7m ⇒ +42.0% YoY; 2024 gross profit RMB84.6m ⇒ 80.8% GM; 2024 R&D RMB332.1m ⇒ 317% of revenue; 2024 net loss RMB677.6m ⇒ −647% margin.

    Takeaway: GenFleet lists at a far lower P/B than most 18A oncology peers (often teens–40×), which is valuation-supportive if investors buy the KRAS story.


    IPOs in the same window (HK, Sep 2025)

    • Dahon Tech (2543.HK) — listed 9 Sep 2025.

    • GenFleet-B (2595.HK) — prospectus 11 Sep 2025, expected listing 19 Sep 2025.

    • Zijin Gold International — bookbuild starts 19 Sep 2025, debut slated 29 Sep 2025 (large cap, different sector).


    Sector pulse — last 10 trading days proxy

    The Hang Seng Hong Kong-Listed Biotech Index (HSHKBIO) shows: 1-week −0.1%, 1-month +6.8%, 3-month +45% — i.e., short-term wobble but strong medium-term momentum into September.


    Research / expert opinions (pre-listing)

    • Pre-IPO valuation notes: Independent analyst work frames GenFleet via rNPV/SOTP and pegs proceeds/size in line with the filing; no public price target disclosed in open articles.

    • Media/brokerage briefs: Reports cite the HK$20.39 offer, ~HK$1.44b net proceeds, and nine cornerstone investors (RTW, OrbiMed, UBS AM (SG), Vivo). This is supportive of book quality but formal sell-side coverage and price targets typically begin after listing; none publicly posted yet as of 14 Sep 2025.

    Bottom line: There are no published, named analyst ratings/targets for GenFleet as of today (pre-debut).


    Allotment result

    Not out yet. GenFleet’s timetable shows results due Thu, 18 Sep 2025 with dealings Fri, 19 Sep 2025 — so there is no “Latest Allotment Result” today (14 Sep 2025).


    First-day performance — assessment

    Positives

    • Valuation: P/B ~4.0× vs peers in the ~17–40× range gives room for re-rating if execution is solid.

    • Cornerstones: Quality names (RTW/OrbiMed/UBS AM/Vivo) subscribing ~US$100m bolster aftermarket confidence.

    • Sector tape: Biotech index has had a big 3-month run (+45%), indicating risk appetite is back, even if the past week was flat/down slightly.

    Watch-outs

    • Pre-profit 18A name with high R&D burn and licensing-skewed revenue; tangible commercial scale still developing.

    • Short-term index soft patch (1-week down) can weigh on IPO pops.

    Call (first day)

    On balance, GenFleet is likely to trade modestly above the offer on debut (supported by low relative P/B and strong cornerstones), not a blow-out pop given 18A risk and a mixed week for the sector.

    Estimated first-day range: HK$21.20 – HK$23.00 (≈ +4% to +13% vs HK$20.39).
    Strength: mild to moderate strength above IPO price (not “strongly” runaway).


    Subscribe or skip?

    • For listing pop: Subscribe (small-to-moderate) — valuation is undemanding vs 18A peers; cornerstone lineup is a plus; sector tailwinds medium-term.

    • For multi-month hold: Selective — execution on KRAS G12C commercialization (royalties) and KRAS G12D/other pipeline catalysts will matter; risk remains high for pre-profit biotech.


    Where to download the prospectus

    • HKEXnews (official filing) — GenFleet prospectus dated 11 Sep 2025.

    • Company website (genfleet.com) and a 3rd-party news mirror also provide the document.


    Appendix — how GenFleet’s metrics were computed

    • P/B: Offer HK$20.39 / NAV per share HK$5.06 = 4.03×.

    • Revenue YoY: RMB104.7m (2024) vs RMB73.7m (2023) ⇒ +42.0%.

    • Gross margin (2024): 84.6 / 104.7 = 80.8%.

    • R&D as % revenue (2024): 332.1 / 104.7 = 317%.

    • Net loss margin (2024): 677.6 / 104.7 = 647%.

    Thank you

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