Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: September 4, 2025

UOB-Kay Hian Holdings and Asia Market Pulse: Bullish Trends, Bond Volatility, and China’s Tech Involution

Market Overview: Bond Yields Surge and Political Uncertainty in Japan

Global bond markets are weathering a storm, with Japan witnessing a pronounced selloff in its longer-maturity government debt. Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds have soared 8.5 basis points to 3.285%—a record since their introduction. The 40-year yield surged by 9 basis points, reaching 3.535%, while 20-year bonds hit highs unseen since 1999. This follows similar moves in European and US bonds, where the 30-year US Treasury yield is climbing toward 5%.
The sell-off is attributed to escalating global fiscal concerns, fears of increased government spending and inflation, and domestic political uncertainty. The impending 30-year bond auction and uncertainty within Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party are amplifying selling pressure, as investors question long-term fiscal stability.

China Strategy: Involution and Earnings Pressure on Hang Seng

China’s equity landscape is evolving under the pressure of involution—a term describing self-defeating competition that erodes profitability. Hang Seng’s first-half 2025 earnings suffered notably, dragged down by intense food delivery subsidy wars. The downward spiral in earnings expectations has led Bloomberg consensus to forecast negative earnings growth for the Hang Seng in 2025.
Despite these challenges, there is optimism for Chinese tech companies. AI and technological advancements are expected to deliver value and drive future growth. However, analysts stress that the key to sustainable, compounded earnings growth for Chinese equities is addressing involution-style competition head-on.

Technical Spotlight: UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd – Bullish Trend Remains Robust

UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd, a prominent holding company providing global stock and futures broking, investment trading, nominee services, margin financing, and research activities, is exhibiting strong bullish signals based on technical analysis.

Technical Analysis: Key Bullish Indicators

• Uptrend Intact: UOB-Kay Hian remains firmly within its primary and secondary uptrends, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
• Flag Breakout: The stock is likely to confirm a bullish continuation after breaking out of a flag formation—a classical technical pattern pointing to further upside.
• Ichimoku Cloud: All Ichimoku components are rising, giving a robust bullish signal.
• MACD: Both the MACD signal and line are rising steadily above zero, with a positive histogram, confirming bullish momentum.
• Stochastic Oscillator: While currently overbought, the correction has been mild and has completed its three-wave structure—often a precursor to renewed gains.
• Rate of Change (ROC): The 23-period ROC remains positive, supporting ongoing price strength.
• Directional Movement Index: Steady bullish strength is evident.
• Volume: Healthy expansion in trading volume further validates the uptrend.

Company Profile: UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd

UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Limited is a diversified financial holding company with a global reach. Through its subsidiaries, it offers:

• Stock and futures broking
• Investment trading
• Nominee services
• Margin financing
• Research activities

The company serves clients worldwide and is recognized for its broad-based financial and brokerage services.

China Tech: The Next Growth Frontier Amidst Earnings Pressure

Despite negative earnings revisions for the Hang Seng, Chinese technology companies are positioned for growth. Advancements in AI and other technologies are expected to create value and act as a counterweight to involution-driven earnings erosion. However, tackling the root causes of involution-style competition remains critical for sustained growth.

Key Takeaways and Sector Ratings

Stock Rating Distribution (as of June 30, 2025)

Conclusion: Navigating Volatile Markets with Strategic Insight

Investors are navigating an environment shaped by rising bond yields, political uncertainty, and competitive disruption in key Asian markets. UOB-Kay Hian Holdings stands out for its robust technical outlook and global brokerage capabilities. Meanwhile, Chinese tech’s future will depend on its ability to harness innovation and overcome the pitfalls of involution.
As always, individual investment objectives and risk tolerance should guide decisions in these dynamic markets. For a comprehensive understanding, investors are encouraged to stay informed and consult professional advisors as needed.