UOB Kay Hian
Date of Report: 2 September 2025
Macau Gaming Sector Hits New Highs: Galaxy and Sands China Lead Post-Pandemic Recovery

Overview: Macau Gaming Surges to Post-Pandemic Records

Macau’s gaming industry continues its robust recovery, setting new post-pandemic records in August 2025. According to UOB Kay Hian’s latest sector update, gross gaming revenue (GGR) for August reached MOP$22.2 billion, representing a 12% year-on-year increase and recovering to 91% of 2019’s pre-pandemic levels. This impressive momentum is supported by strong visitation numbers, rising hotel occupancy rates, and resilient overnight stays.

Key Highlights: Sector Performance & Recovery Metrics

• August 2025 GGR: MOP\$22.2 billion, up 12% YoY, flat MoM, 91% of 2019 levels
• Jan–Aug 2025 Cumulative GGR: MOP\$163.1 billion, up 7% YoY, 82% of 2019 levels
• Visitation: July 2025 arrivals reached 3.5 million, up 20% MoM and 14% YoY, recovering to 98% of 2019’s level
• Mainland China Arrivals: July 2025 visitors rose 28% MoM and 17% YoY, totaling 2.6 million
• Hotel Occupancy: July 2025 occupancy rate climbed to 95.2%, average room rate increased to MOP\$1,370
• Per Capita Spending: 2Q25 spending fell 2% QoQ and 12% YoY to MOP\$1,950

Sector Analysis: Macau Gaming’s Accelerated Recovery

Macau’s gaming sector continues to outperform expectations, with August’s GGR setting another post-pandemic high. The sector’s recovery trajectory remains strong, closely tracking pre-pandemic benchmarks. Visitation rates have nearly returned to historical highs, supported by a surge in arrivals from mainland China, which accounted for 2.6 million visitors in July—a 28% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year increase. Notably, same-day visitors increased 23% MoM and 24% YoY, while overnight stays rose 15% MoM and 4% YoY, maintaining an average stay of 1.6 days.
Hotel performance further underscores Macau’s resurgence, with occupancy rates climbing to 95.2% in July (up from 92.9% in June), and average room rates rising to MOP$1,370. However, per capita visitor spending remains under pressure, declining 2% QoQ and 12% YoY to MOP$1,950 in 2Q25. Total visitor spending for 2Q25 was MOP$18.2 billion, down 7% QoQ but up 5% YoY. For the first half of 2025, total visitor spend reached MOP$37.9 billion, edging up 0.2% YoY, with per capita spend at MOP$1,970, down 13% YoY.

Investment Action: Sector Rating and Top Picks

UOB Kay Hian maintains an OVERWEIGHT rating on Macau’s gaming sector, with Galaxy Entertainment Group (Galaxy, 27 HK) as its top pick. The broker rolls over target prices to 2026, adopting a 12.0x EV/EBITDA valuation methodology:

• Galaxy target price raised by 9% to HK\$49.00
• Sands China target price raised by 10% to HK\$24.30

Galaxy’s ongoing reinvestments in premium customers, including enhancements at Capella, are expected to drive further value. The company maintains a robust dividend payout ratio of ~60%. Galaxy currently trades at 10.9x 2025 EV/EBITDA and 10.0x 2026 EV/EBITDA.

Company Deep Dives: Galaxy and Sands China

Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)

• Recommendation: BUY
• Share Price: HK\$41.08
• Target Price: HK\$49.00 (19.3% upside)
• Market Cap: US\$23.05 billion
• EV/EBITDA: 10.9x (2025F), 10.0x (2026F)
• P/E: 16.7x (2025F), 15.5x (2026F)
• P/B: 2.2x (2025F), 2.1x (2026F)
• ROE: 13.6% (2025F)
• Dividend Yield: 3.7% (2025F)
• Continued focus on premium customer optimization, including Capella enhancements
• Dividend payout ratio expected to remain around 60%
• Trading at attractive multiples relative to sector recovery

Sands China (1928 HK)

• Recommendation: BUY
• Share Price: HK\$20.20
• Target Price: HK\$24.30 (20.3% upside)
• Market Cap: US\$20.97 billion
• EV/EBITDA: 11.8x (2025F), 10.7x (2026F)
• P/E: 17.6x (2025F), 15.0x (2026F)
• P/B: 12.4x (2025F), 8.1x (2026F)
• ROE: 87.4% (2025F)
• Dividend Yield: 2.5% (2025F)

Macau Tourism & Gaming Data Trends

Monthly GGR & Visitor Recovery:

• Monthly GGR steadily rising, approaching 2019 levels, peaking at 91% in August 2025
• Chinese mainland visitors—both IVS visa and package tours—have rebounded, nearing pre-pandemic volumes

Hotel Occupancy & Room Rates:

• All hotel segments (3-star, 4-star, 5-star) report occupancy rates above 90% through July 2025
• Average room rates have increased consistently, reaching MOP\$1,370 in July

Visitor Spending:

• Total spending by visitors in 2Q25: MOP\$18.2 billion (down 7% QoQ, up 5% YoY)
• Per capita spending in 2Q25: MOP\$1,950 (down 2% QoQ, down 12% YoY)
• 1H25 total spending: MOP\$37.9 billion, slightly up YoY
• 1H25 per capita spend: MOP\$1,970, down 13% YoY

Conclusion: Macau Gaming Set for Sustained Growth—Galaxy the Standout

The Macau gaming sector’s latest results confirm a robust, sustained recovery, with visitation, hotel metrics, and GGR all nearing or surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Galaxy Entertainment Group stands out as the sector leader, thanks to its strategic investments in the premium segment and consistent shareholder returns. Sands China also offers considerable upside and healthy financials for investors seeking exposure to Macau’s continued growth.
With sector-wide OVERWEIGHT recommendations and compelling valuation metrics, both Galaxy and Sands China are well-positioned to benefit from ongoing tourism and gaming rebounds. Investors should monitor per capita spending trends, but the macro recovery story remains firmly intact.