UOB Kay Hian Private Limited
Date of Report: Friday, 22 August 2025
MINISO Group Q2 2025 Earnings: Accelerated Growth, Overseas Strength, and Margin Resilience
Introduction: MINISO Surpasses Expectations with Robust Q2 2025 Performance
MINISO Group Holding Ltd (MNSO US / 9896 HK), a global value retailer renowned for its trendy lifestyle products and IP-driven designs, has delivered second-quarter 2025 results that outperformed market fears. The company, listed in both the US and Hong Kong, is maintaining strong growth momentum across domestic and international markets, buoyed by confident management guidance and strategic adjustments to its expansion plans. UOB Kay Hian reaffirms its BUY rating on the stock and raises the target price to US$26.80.
Company Snapshot: Brand Overview and Market Data
MINISO operates its flagship “MINISO” brand and the newer “TOP TOY” brand. The product lineup spans 11 major categories, including home décor, electronics, beauty, toys, snacks, fragrances, and more. The company’s business model leverages frequent assortment refreshes and pop culture IP collaborations.
Key Market Data:
Share Price: US$22.17
Target Price: US$26.80 (+20.9% Upside)
Market Cap: US$6.89bn
Major Shareholder: Guofu Ye (61.62%)
52-Week Range: US$27.71 – US$12.51
FY25 NAV/Share: RMB 38.08
FY25 Net Cash/Share: RMB 4.36
GICS Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Q2 2025 Financial Performance: Highlights and Key Metrics
MINISO’s Q2 2025 results were notably strong, with revenue exceeding guidance and margin declines narrowing sequentially. The company’s expansion strategy, especially in overseas markets, is delivering tangible results.

Store Expansion: Continued Growth Across Geographies
In Q2 2025, MINISO added 30 stores in mainland China, 94 stores in overseas markets, and 13 Top Toy stores.
Total store counts as of Q2 2025:
Mainland China: 4,305
Overseas: 3,307
Top Toy: 293
MINISO continues to execute a large-store strategy, with large stores contributing disproportionately to gross merchandise value (GMV).
Financial Forecasts and Key Metrics

Segment and Regional Analysis
Mainland China: SSS Growth Accelerates, Store Strategy Refined
Mainland China revenue rose 14% YoY in Q2 2025, driven by higher conversion and average ticket size.
Same-store sales (SSS) growth turned positive, with management expecting high single-digit SSS growth in Q3 and low single-digit for full year.
New store opening target revised down to 100-150 (from 200-300), focusing on larger store formats that account for 5% of the store count but deliver double-digit GMV contributions.
Forecast: Mainland China revenue is expected to grow by mid- to high-teens in Q3 2025 and by mid-teens for the full year.
Overseas Markets: SSS Recovery and Aggressive Expansion
Overseas revenue jumped 29% YoY in Q2 2025, with SSS decline narrowing to low single digits.
Both Europe and North America posted mid- to high-single-digit SSS growth, with SSS expected to turn positive in Q3.
Overseas SSS growth is projected at mid- to low-single digits, driving 30-35% YoY revenue growth in Q3.
Plan to open 500 new overseas stores in 2025, mainly in the US, Canada, Australia, and other regions.
Overseas revenue is targeted to grow by 40% in 2025.
Revenue by Segment: Q2 2025 Breakdown

Store Count by Region and Type

Margin, Earnings and Valuation Outlook
2025 revenue growth guidance raised to 25% (up from prior guidance of no less than 23%).
Management expects double-digit adjusted operating profit growth in Q3 2025, with sequential margin improvement and a narrowing YoY decline in 2H 2025.
Full-year net new openings of DTC (direct-to-consumer) overseas stores now expected to account for 35% (down from 40%), reducing upfront costs and supporting margin stabilization.
2025 adjusted operating profit is projected at RMB 3.65-3.85 billion, compared to RMB 3.4 billion in 2024.
2025 earnings forecast trimmed by 0.5% due to slight gross margin and S&D expense adjustments, but 2026 forecast remains unchanged.
The stock currently trades at 16.8x 2025F PE and 13.7x 2026F PE. New target price of US$26.80 implies 20.4x 2025F PE and 16.6x 2026F PE.
Profitability, Growth, and Leverage Metrics

Outlook and Conclusion: Buy Maintained, Growth Trajectory Intact
MINISO’s Q2 2025 results reinforce its position as a leading value retailer with global ambitions. Accelerated overseas expansion, improving same-store sales, and margin resilience underpin robust revenue and profit growth expectations for 2025 and beyond. While minor margin compression is noted, strong operational execution and prudent cost controls balance growth and profitability. UOB Kay Hian’s revised target price of US$26.80 underscores confidence in MINISO’s growth outlook, with the stock remaining attractively valued for investors seeking exposure to global discretionary retail growth.
Report prepared by UOB Kay Hian Private Limited.
Date of Research: 22 August 2025