Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: July 24, 2025

Mapletree Logistics Trust and S-REITs 2025: Strategic Insights, Peer Comparisons, and Financial Outlook

Introduction: Mapletree Logistics Trust Stays the Course Amid Market Shifts

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT), a leading Singapore-listed REIT, continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in a dynamic market landscape. This detailed analysis explores MLT’s latest financial performance, rental trends, gearing, and ESG initiatives, and provides an in-depth comparison with its S-REIT peers across various sectors including industrial, hospitality, office, retail, overseas-centric, and healthcare REITs.

Mapletree Logistics Trust 1QFY26 Results: Key Highlights

• 1QFY26 DPU: 1.812 Singapore cents, down 12.4% year-on-year, representing 24.2% of the FY26 forecast.
• Revenue: S\$177.4 million, a 2.4% year-on-year decrease. Net Property Income (NPI) stood at S\$153.4 million, down 2.1%.
• Factors Impacting Results: The decline was attributed to the income gap from divested properties, lower contributions from China, and adverse foreign exchange effects, partially offset by stronger income from Singapore, Australia, and Hong Kong SAR.
• Occupancy: Portfolio occupancy dipped 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 95.7%, largely due to the inclusion of the newly completed Mapletree Joo Koon Logistics Hub (MJKLH), which had a take-up rate of 42.4% as of June 2025. Excluding MJKLH, occupancy would have been higher at 96.3%.
• Rental Reversions: Slowed to +2.1% for 1QFY26 (+2.8% excluding China), with regional results ranging from -7.5% in China to +7.2% in Japan. Management expects China reversions to remain negative for FY26.
• Lease Expiries: 25.3% of leases are due for re-contracting in FY26 and 24.8% in FY27, with half of the FY26 expiries from China, potentially weighing on overall rental reversions.

Gearing, Interest Rates, and Capital Recycling

• Gearing: Rose slightly to 41.2% at end-1QFY26, mainly due to foreign exchange movements impacting the portfolio value.
• Interest Costs: Remained stable at 2.7% quarter-on-quarter. 84% of debt is hedged into fixed rates, and 74% of distributable income is hedged into SGD for the next 12 months.
• Interest Rate Guidance: Management lowered FY26 guidance by 20 basis points, now expecting 2.7-2.8%.
• Asset Recycling: Potential divestment of S\$100m-150m in assets across South Korea, Australia, and China is under consideration for FY26.

Investment Outlook: Target Price, Yield, and Risks

• Rating: Add recommendation maintained with an unchanged DDM-based target price of S\$1.63.
• Yield: FY26F DPU yield estimated at 6.2%, reflecting the slower growth outlook.
• Potential Catalysts: Sustained leasing momentum, positive rental renewals, and accelerated asset recycling.
• Risks: A soft macroeconomic outlook may dampen rental growth and adversely affect portfolio values and reversion prospects.

Mapletree Logistics Trust: Key Financial Summary

Peer Comparison: How MLT Stacks Up Across S-REIT Sectors

The report provides a thorough peer comparison across multiple S-REIT sectors. Below, the dividend yields, gearing, and price-to-book ratios of key industry players are highlighted for competitive benchmarking.

Industrial REITs

• AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AAREIT): Price S\$1.39, Yield 7.4%-7.5%, Leverage 33.7%, P/B 1.10
• CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR): Price S\$2.80, Yield 5.5%-5.8%, Leverage 38.9%, P/B 1.27
• ESR-REIT (EREIT): Price S\$2.57, Yield 8.5%-8.9%, Leverage 42.8%, P/B 0.93
• Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLT): Price S\$0.88, Yield 6.1%-6.5%, Leverage 36.1%, P/B 0.81
• Keppel DC REIT: Price S\$2.26, Yield 4.4%-4.7%, Leverage 30.2%, P/B 1.48
• Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT): Price S\$2.06, Yield 6.4%-6.6%, Leverage 40.1%, P/B 1.20
• Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT): Price S\$1.19, Yield 6.2%-6.8%, Leverage 41.2%, P/B 0.94
• Stoneweg Europe Stapled Trust (SERT): Price S\$1.57, Yield 8.4%-9.0%, Leverage 42.9%, P/B 0.79

Hospitality REITs

• CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS): Price S\$0.91, Yield 6.8%-7.0%, Leverage 39.9%, P/B 0.79
• CDL Hospitality Trust (CDREIT): Price S\$0.85, Yield 6.1%-7.4%, Leverage 41.8%, P/B 0.57
• Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Price S\$0.61, Yield 6.3%-6.5%, Leverage 31.2%, P/B 0.66
• Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT): Price S\$0.70, Yield 4.6%-5.2%, Leverage 35.0%, P/B 1.09

Office REITs

• Keppel REIT: Price S\$0.93, Yield 5.8%-6.3%, Leverage 42.1%, P/B 0.75
• OUE REIT: Price S\$0.31, Yield 6.5%-7.1%, Leverage 40.3%, P/B 0.54
• Suntec REIT: Price S\$1.18, Yield 5.3%-5.9%, Leverage 43.4%, P/B 0.59

Retail REITs

• CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT): Price S\$2.20, Yield 5.1%-5.6%, Leverage 38.7%, P/B 1.05
• Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT): Price S\$2.20, Yield 5.5%-5.8%, Leverage 38.6%, P/B 0.99
• Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT): Price S\$0.55, Yield 7.2%-7.3%, Leverage 38.0%, P/B 0.74
• Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT): Price S\$1.28, Yield 6.3%-6.6%, Leverage 37.7%, P/B 0.72
• Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT): Price S\$0.54, Yield 6.7%-6.9%, Leverage 36.2%, P/B 0.78

Overseas-centric REITs

• CapitaLand China Trust (CLCT): Price S\$0.79, Yield 7.7%-8.0%, Leverage 42.6%, P/B 0.72
• Elite UK REIT: Price S\$0.35, Yield 8.5%-8.7%, Leverage 43.0%, P/B 0.88
• Manulife US REIT: Price S\$0.07, Yield 0.0%-45.1% (volatile), Leverage 60.8%, P/B 0.31
• Sasseur REIT: Price S\$0.68, Yield 9.1%-9.8%, Leverage 25.9%, P/B 0.81

Healthcare REITs

• Parkway Life REIT: Price S\$4.04, Yield 3.8%-4.3%, Leverage 36.1%, P/B 1.67

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Performance

Mapletree Logistics Trust scored a B overall for ESG in FY3/24, with strengths in environmental controversies (A+), workforce (A), product responsibility (A), management (A), and CSR strategy (A-). MLT’s ongoing green roadmap targets carbon neutrality for Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, with a long-term goal of net zero by 2050. Notable FY3/25 achievements include:

• Green-certified space grew to 56% of total portfolio by GFA.
• Green leases comprised 51% of NLA.
• Total solar generating capacity reached 71.1MWp (a 31.2% YoY increase in self-funded solar).
• Over 1,700 indigenous trees planted across the portfolio.
• Portfolio energy intensity reduced by 4.3% from FY24 baseline.
• S\$1.3 billion in green and sustainability-linked loans, about 24% of total debt facilities.

Areas for improvement include environmental innovation, community, and shareholder ratings, currently at D+, D-, and C+ respectively. No ESG premium or discount is applied in valuations, but enhancements in environmental initiatives could boost the scores further.

Financial Statements: A By-the-Numbers Look

Profit & Loss (S\$m)

Balance Sheet (S\$m)

Key Ratios

• Net Property Income Margin: 86.5% (2024A), 86.0% (2025A), 85.9% (2026-2028F)
• DPS Growth: -0.1% (2024A), -10.6% (2025A), -7.2% (2026F), -0.7% (2027F), -0.3% (2028F)
• Gross Interest Cover: 3.52 (2024A), 3.33 (2025A), 3.28 (2026F), 3.29 (2027F), 3.27 (2028F)
• Return on Average Assets: 2.23% (2024A), 1.32% (2025A), 2.27%-2.29% (2026-2028F)

Conclusion: Outlook for Mapletree Logistics Trust and S-REITs

Mapletree Logistics Trust maintains its position as a leader among industrial S-REITs, with stable fundamentals, a robust ESG strategy, and a competitive dividend yield. While the outlook remains cautious due to macroeconomic uncertainties and ongoing negative rental reversions in China, MLT’s high occupancy, prudent capital management, and active asset recycling provide substantial buffers. Peer REITs in industrial, office, retail, and hospitality sectors each present unique risk-return profiles, with MLT offering a compelling blend of stability, sustainability, and income visibility for discerning investors.