Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: July 22, 2025

Hong Kong Market Insights: AIM Vaccine and Trip.com in Focus Amid Shifting Global Backdrop

Market Overview: Volatility Amid Earnings Season and Trade Uncertainty

The start of the trading week saw global equities fluctuate as investors weighed corporate earnings, ongoing tariff risks, and macroeconomic developments. The S&P 500 managed to close above 6,300 for the first time, but with a muted gain of just 0.1%. Treasury yields dropped—most notably, the 30-year yield fell by four basis points to 4.95%. The US dollar softened against all major peers, while the Japanese yen strengthened following political shifts in Japan. Market participants remained alert for possible new tariff actions from the White House ahead of the August 1 deadline, as the Trump administration signaled a tougher stance on trade policy. Earnings guidance is now under particular scrutiny, with investors searching for clarity on companies’ outlooks and the potential for upward revisions to Wall Street’s earnings estimates.

Trip.com: Robust Summer Travel Outlook and Market Position

Ticker: HKG: Trip.com

• Domestic and outbound travel revenues are projected to increase by mid-to-high single digits and mid-to-high teens year-on-year, respectively, for the summer holiday period (July 1 – August 31, 2025).
• Recent increases in online travel agency (OTA) subsidies from competitors JD and Douyin are not expected to threaten Trip.com’s market share, owing to Trip.com’s established dominance in the high-end hotel segment.
• Forecasts for Q2 2025 anticipate a 14.5% year-on-year rise in revenue. However, non-GAAP net profit is projected to decline by 10.3% year-on-year, attributed to the company’s aggressive overseas expansion strategy.
• The recommendation remains an ‘Add’ with a discounted cash flow-based target price of HK\$588.00. The valuation uses a WACC of 10.1% and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

AIM Vaccine Co Ltd: Technical Buy as Bottoming Out Signals Strength

Ticker: HKG: AIM Vaccine Co Ltd (6660) Last Price: HK\$4.36

Company Profile

AIM Vaccine Co Ltd is a leading vaccine manufacturer, producing a range of products including recombinant hepatitis B vaccines, freeze-dried human rabies vaccines, inactivated hepatitis A vaccines, and live attenuated parotitis vaccines. The company is also engaged in import and export activities.

Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy

• Entry Prices: HK\$4.36, HK\$3.79, HK\$3.20
• Supports: HK\$1.09 (Support 1), HK\$0.70 (Support 2)
• Stop Loss: HK\$2.96
• Resistances: HK\$1.38 (Resistance 1), HK\$2.41 (Resistance 2)
• Target Prices: HK\$6.40 (Target 1), HK\$7.90 (Target 2), HK\$8.60 (Target 3), HK\$15.00 (Target 4)

Technical Snapshot: Key Bullish Signals

• The stock has broken out of a major falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal.
• A consolidation range has formed, suggesting a possible continuation of the upward move.
• Ichimoku technical analysis indicates a strong bullish setup.
• The MACD histogram is positive, with both MACD and signal lines rising steadily towards the zero line.
• The stochastic oscillator is continuing its upward movement, supporting bullish momentum.
• The 23-period Rate of Change (ROC) is positive and climbing.
• The directional movement index reflects increasing bullish strength.
• Trading volumes are expanding healthily, adding further conviction to the bullish case.

Global Regulatory and Distribution Disclosures

CGS International provides detailed regulatory and distribution disclosures for all jurisdictions where its research is distributed. The report is designed for professional, institutional, and sophisticated investors and is not an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The report highlights the importance of considering individual investment objectives, financial situations, and professional advice before making investment decisions.

Stock Rating Framework

Sector and Country Ratings

• Overweight: Positive recommendation relative to the benchmark.
• Neutral: Neutral recommendation relative to the benchmark.
• Underweight: Negative recommendation relative to the benchmark.

Stock Rating Distribution (as of June 30, 2025)

Coverage includes 561 companies for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.

Conclusion: Navigating Opportunity and Risk in Hong Kong Equities

The Hong Kong equity landscape is defined by a dynamic mix of macroeconomic shifts, regulatory changes, and sector-specific drivers. AIM Vaccine Co Ltd stands out for its technical bottoming and bullish reversal signals, while Trip.com’s robust summer travel outlook and resilient market share reinforce its long-term growth story. As always, investors are urged to conduct their own due diligence, consider professional advice, and closely monitor evolving market conditions to make informed investment decisions.