Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: July 15, 2025

Singapore Property Market Outlook 2025: Robust New Home Sales, Sector Picks, and Investment Insights

Strong Momentum in Singapore’s New Home Sales

Singapore’s property market continues to show resilience and dynamism in 2025, as evidenced by the latest data on monthly new home sales. According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority, private home sales (excluding Executive Condominiums, or ECs) reached 272 units in June 2025—a 13% decrease month-on-month but a robust 19% increase year-on-year. Including ECs, total sales stood at 305 units.
Key projects driving June’s sales included One Marina Gardens, Bloomsbury Residences, The Hill @ One-North, and Hillock Green. Notably, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) dominated with a 69% share of monthly sales, while the Outside Central Region (OCR) and Core Central Region (CCR) accounted for 25% and 6%, respectively.

Anticipating a Surge in July 2025 Sales

Looking ahead, a significant uptick in sales is forecasted for July 2025, supported by a series of new project launches. The first half of 2025 saw ex-EC new home sales totaling 4,634 units—an impressive 141% jump year-on-year, already accounting for 60% of the full-year forecast of approximately 8,000 units.
Recent successful launches reinforce this momentum. For example, LyndenWoods achieved a 94% take-up rate during its debut weekend. Further launches, such as UPPERHOUSE at Orchard Boulevard and Robertson Opus, are expected to fuel strong July sales.

Latest Policy Changes: Seller’s Stamp Duty Adjustments

The Singapore government has recently revised the seller’s stamp duty (SSD) for residential properties. Effective July 4, 2025, the minimum holding period subject to SSD rises from three to four years, and SSD rates increase by four percentage points per tier, ranging from 4% to 16%. These changes do not affect HDB owners due to existing minimum occupation requirements.
Despite these adjustments, the impact on the broader residential market is expected to be limited, given the already low proportion of sub-sale transactions. However, these measures may be perceived as a “cooling step” against the backdrop of a lower interest rate environment.

Sector Outlook: Neutral Stance Amid Economic Headwinds

CGS International maintains a Neutral rating on the Singapore property development and investment sector. While lower mortgage rates and attractive developer valuations present opportunities, a more cautious macroeconomic outlook could temper significant share price outperformance over the next year.
Singapore developers are trading at a steep 58% discount to RNAV and just 0.52x FY25F price-to-book value. Although these valuations suggest value, the uncertain economic environment may lead to more measured buying sentiment, particularly for high-value assets like residential housing.

Key Sector Picks and Company Analysis

• UOL Group (UOL SP)
  Recommendation: ADD
  Target Price: S\$8.20
  Current Price (14 Jul 2025): S\$6.84
  Market Cap: US\$4,509m
  UOL boasts a strong recurring income base, supported by rental properties, hotel operations, and investment holdings. Its office portfolio benefits from exposure to Singapore Land Group (SLG SP). The company’s robust balance sheet positions it well for acquisition opportunities, while the redevelopment of Clifford Centre is expected to unlock further value. UOL is currently trading at a 50% discount to RNAV.
• Capitaland Investment (CLI SP)
  Recommendation: ADD
  Target Price: S\$4.30
  Current Price (14 Jul 2025): S\$2.73
  Market Cap: US\$10,626m
  CLI is one of Asia’s largest real estate investment managers. Its growth in funds under management, efficient capital allocation, and improved operational results across its investment and lodging portfolios are expected to drive return on equity and share price re-rating. CLI trades at a 43% discount to RNAV.
• City Developments (CIT SP)
  Recommendation: ADD
  Target Price: S\$8.97
  Current Price (14 Jul 2025): S\$5.58
  Market Cap: US\$3,890m
  City Developments’ land restocking strategy and strong launch pipeline for 2025 are set to enhance residential earnings visibility. The company’s ongoing value-unlocking initiatives and the recovery of the global hospitality sector could further catalyze its share price. It is trading at a 66% discount to RNAV.

Summary Valuation Metrics (Selected Developers)

Peer Comparison: Other Key Singapore Developers

• APAC Realty Ltd: Trading at a P/E of 15.8x for FY25F and 1.10x price-to-book, with dividend yields of 4.8%.
• Frasers Property Limited: Offers a 5.0% dividend yield and trades at a 65% discount to RNAV.
• Hongkong Land Holdings: Trades at 0.45x price-to-book and 20.6x P/E for FY25F, with a 3.8% yield.
• Propnex Ltd: Forecasted at 15.0x P/E and 7.29x price-to-book for FY25F, with a 6.3% dividend yield.

Risks and Opportunities in the Singapore Property Sector

• Upside Risks: Strong sell-through rates for new project launches and modest appreciation in selling prices could support further gains.
• Downside Risks: A sluggish economic outlook and more cautious consumer sentiment could dampen housing demand and cap share price growth.

Conclusion: Navigating 2025’s Property Landscape

Singapore’s property market in 2025 demonstrates promising momentum, especially in new home sales and developer valuations. However, investors and stakeholders should maintain a balanced view, considering both the sector’s upside potential and macroeconomic risks. UOL, Capitaland Investment, and City Developments stand out as preferred picks, offering attractive discounts to RNAV, resilient business models, and strategic growth initiatives. As government policy tweaks and global economic factors evolve, ongoing vigilance and analysis will be key to capitalizing on the sector’s opportunities.