UOB Kay Hian
July 15, 2025

China’s June 2025 Trade Report: Exports Beat Expectations, but Outlook Remains Uncertain

China’s Trade Surges in June: Key Highlights for Investors

China’s trade performance in June 2025 exceeded market expectations, offering a positive surprise for investors and market watchers. Exports rose 5.8% year-on-year (yoy), outperforming Bloomberg’s consensus forecast of 5.0% as well as May’s 4.8%. Imports rebounded to positive growth at 1.1% yoy, reversing a 3.4% contraction in the previous month and beating market expectations of 0.3%. The trade surplus widened to US$114.8 billion from US$103.2 billion in May.
However, despite the robust June results, the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. The absence of a formal trade deal between China and the US, and the potential for renewed tariff escalations, continues to cast a shadow over future growth.

Export Growth: Robust Gains in Hong Kong and ASEAN, US Still Lags

Exports to the US, while still negative, saw a significant improvement, dropping 16.1% yoy compared to May’s steep 34.5% decline.
Hong Kong and ASEAN markets were standouts, each recording double-digit growth:
Hong Kong: 16.7% yoy (up from 11.4% in May)
ASEAN: 16.8% yoy (up from 14.8%)
Exports to Japan remained stable, rising 6.6% yoy versus 6.2% in May.
Export growth to the EU slowed, rising 7.6% yoy (down from 12.0%), likely due to rising trade protectionism.

Imports: Crude Oil Drives Turnaround, Commodities Mixed

Imports grew 1.1% yoy, supported mainly by a recovery in crude oil imports, which improved by 12.9 percentage points to -6.1% yoy.
Copper ore imports increased 16.6% yoy (up from 15.7% in May).
Iron ore imports contracted by 9.4% yoy, but this was a slight improvement from May’s -9.9%.
Coal imports continued to shrink, falling 47.1% yoy compared to a 40.3% drop in May, reflecting domestic seasonal demand shifts.

Sector Performance: Motor Vehicles and Integrated Circuits Lead the Way

Motor vehicle exports surged 24.5% yoy, up sharply from 15.2% in May.
Integrated circuits imports climbed 11.5% yoy (up from 8.9%).
Hi-tech product exports grew 6.9% yoy (vs 4.9% in May).
Mechanical and electrical products exports rose 8.2% yoy (vs 7.2%).

Key Trade Data Table (June 2025 vs May 2025)

Exports to Key Markets (US\$b, % yoy change)

Imports of Key Commodities (US\$b, % yoy change)

Trade of Key Product Categories (US\$b, % yoy change)

Market Outlook: Uncertainty Remains Despite Temporary Improvement

The improved trade numbers for June are attributed to the interim suspension of punitive tariff rates following the recent Sino-US agreement. This temporary easing of trade tensions is expected to support trading activities into July. However, the overall outlook remains highly uncertain and is contingent on future US tariff policy decisions.

Conclusion: What Should Investors Watch?

China’s June trade data paints a picture of resilience with strong rebounds in exports and a notable recovery in certain import segments. Key markets such as Hong Kong and ASEAN are driving export gains, and commodity imports are showing mixed but improving trends. However, the specter of renewed US tariffs and unresolved trade negotiations means caution is warranted in forecasting sustained momentum.
Investors should monitor upcoming policy developments, especially regarding US-China trade relations, and keep a close eye on data for July and beyond.

Analyst Contacts

• Tham Mun Hon, CFA | +852 2236 6799 | [email protected]
• Claire Wang | +852 2236 6761 | [email protected]