Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: June 24, 2025

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust: Technical Signals Hint at Strong Rebound Amid Favorable Market Backdrop

Market Recap: Wall Street Surges as Geopolitical Risks Ease

Global markets rallied overnight, buoyed by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations. Wall Street traders pushed equities higher as oil prices dropped sharply, with West Texas Intermediate falling below \$70 per barrel. The decline in oil was attributed to what were perceived as symbolic Iranian missile strikes on a US base in Qatar, which were intercepted and caused no significant damage. This controlled response was interpreted as a sign that Iran seeks to avoid escalating into a broader conflict, thus reducing the likelihood of a global supply chain shock.

The S&P 500 extended its gains by 1% after remarks from President Donald Trump, who characterized the Iranian attack as “very weak” and signaled hopes for de-escalation. Treasury yields also fell after a Federal Reserve official hinted that interest rates could be cut as early as July. Despite ongoing Middle East tensions, the market consensus is that the risk premium for crude oil and gas may trend lower, given the absence of disruptions to physical oil flows. Interestingly, Iranian oil exports from the Gulf have increased rather than diminished in the wake of these developments.

Singapore Macro Update: Inflation Hits Record Lows, Further Upside Limited

• Singapore’s core inflation dropped to 0.6% year-on-year in May 2025, with headline inflation at 0.8% year-on-year.
• The primary driver for this moderation was a decline in private transport costs, linked to decreasing Certificate of Entitlement (COE) premiums across most categories.
• Despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties that could pose upside risks, the expected impact on Singapore’s inflation remains contained. The 2025 full-year forecast for CPI is maintained at 1.5% year-on-year.

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT): Technical Buy Setup Signals Potential Comeback

Overview:

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT) is a diversified real estate investment trust (REIT) with a portfolio focused on income-producing office and retail assets. The trust is structured to invest both directly and indirectly in high-quality commercial real estate and related assets across Asia.

Key Technical Levels and Trading Strategy:

Technical Analysis Highlights:

• MPACT was previously stopped out at S\$1.10 (as per the March 14, 2025 report) but rebounded sharply thereafter.
• Recent price action signals the conclusion of a bottoming consolidation phase, with potential for a strong upward breakout.
• Key bullish indicators include:
  • Formation of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, confirmed by a break above the downtrend line.
  • Positive MACD histogram, with both signal and MACD lines rising steadily toward the zero mark.
  • The Stochastic Oscillator has surged, reinforcing the momentum on the upside.
  • The 23-period Rate of Change (ROC) has rebounded and remains in positive territory.
  • Volume expansion has been healthy, supporting the bullish technical setup.

Analyst Coverage and Contact

The technical analysis and recommendations are provided by Chua Wei Ren, CMT (CGS International). Investors seeking further details are encouraged to contact the analyst for in-depth discussions.

Stock and Sector Rating Framework

Stock Ratings:

• Add: Total return expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.
• Hold: Total return expected to be between 0% and +10% over the next 12 months.
• Reduce: Total return expected to fall below 0% over the next 12 months.

Total return is defined as the sum of (i) the percentage difference between target price and current price and (ii) forward net dividend yields. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.

Sector and Country Ratings:

• Overweight: Positive absolute recommendation or above-benchmark weighting.
• Neutral: Neutral absolute recommendation or benchmark weighting.
• Underweight: Negative absolute recommendation or below-benchmark weighting.

Rating Distribution (as of Q1 2025):

Coverage universe: 551 companies as of March 31, 2025.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways for Investors

• Global markets are currently supported by a combination of controlled geopolitical risk and dovish central bank signals.
• Singapore’s inflation remains at historic lows, with upside risk limited and manageable.
• Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust stands out as a technical buy, with multiple bullish indicators pointing to a potential strong rebound and a range of upside targets for investors to watch.
• The structured rating system and broad sector/country coverage provide a robust framework for evaluating both individual stocks and market positioning.

Investors are encouraged to monitor technical levels closely, remain vigilant about geopolitical developments, and consider the risk-return profile of each position in the context of evolving market conditions.