Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: June 10, 2025

Hong Kong Trendspotter: Bullish Reversal in Harbin Bank, AIA Group Sees Leadership Boost, and Global Trade Developments

Key Market Developments: US-China Trade Talks and Sector Implications

Global markets are closely watching renewed trade negotiations between the United States and China, set to resume in London as both economies seek to ease tensions on critical sectors such as rare-earth minerals and advanced technology. Recent high-level discussions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping followed an agreement in Geneva to lower tariffs, with the US Treasury, Commerce, and Trade teams leading talks alongside China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in London.

• The US is pushing for the normalization of rare-earth and magnet exports vital for American technology and defense industries.
• China has tentatively approved some rare-earth export applications but is reacting to US restrictions on AI chips, advanced software, and student visas.
• The presence of US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signals a potential softening of technology curbs that could influence China’s long-term growth trajectory.

AIA Group (HKG: 1299): Leadership Change and Market Outlook

AIA Group, a leading insurance and financial services provider, is set to welcome Mark Tucker as its new chairman starting October 1, 2025. This leadership move is viewed favorably by market watchers, given Tucker’s extensive experience with the company and the sector.

• Mark Tucker’s previous tenure saw AIA’s share price rise by an average of 4% over the 5-day window around results announcements, highlighting his positive impact on investor confidence.
• The report reiterates an “Add” rating for AIA with a target price (TP) of HK\$103, reaffirming the company as a top sector pick.

Harbin Bank Co Ltd (HKG: 6138): Strong Technical Buy Signal Amid Bullish Reversal

Harbin Bank Co Ltd, a prominent provider of retail and commercial banking services in China, is witnessing a significant technical breakout, signaling a strong bullish reversal and renewed upside potential.

Technical Analysis Snapshot

Technical Indicators Supporting the Bullish Outlook

• The stock has broken out of a larger falling wedge pattern, confirming the success of the bullish reversal.
• A bullish breakout above HK\$0.37 now acts as new intermediate support, marking the beginning of an uptrend.
• Ichimoku indicators confirm a clear bullish signal, with prices trending above all Ichimoku lines.
• MACD histogram remains positive, with both MACD and signal lines elevated above zero.
• Stochastic Oscillator is rising and approaching the key midpoint (50-level).
• The 23-period Rate of Change (ROC) is positive, reinforcing upward momentum.
• Directional Movement Index (DMI) points to the return of bullish strength.
• Trading volume is showing healthy expansion, supporting the price breakout.

Company Overview: Harbin Bank Co Ltd

Harbin Bank offers a wide range of banking services including deposits, loans, exchange transactions, and fund management for individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Disclaimers and Regulatory Information

This article is based on research and analysis prepared by CGS International, which is distributed across various jurisdictions according to local regulations. The insights, opinions, and recommendations are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should consider their financial situation and consult professional advisors before making investment decisions.

Stock and Sector Ratings Explained

• Add: Expected total return exceeds 10% over the next 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return between 0% and 10% over the next 12 months.
• Reduce: Expected total return below 0% over the next 12 months.

Sector and country ratings are classified as Overweight, Neutral, or Underweight based on market cap-weighted recommendations and relative positioning to benchmarks.

Summary: Strategic Insights for Hong Kong Investors

Market participants should closely monitor the outcome of the renewed US-China trade talks, as progress or setbacks could have wide-reaching implications for technology, automobile, and banking sectors. AIA Group stands out as a top pick in the insurance sector, supported by an incoming chairman with a proven track record. Meanwhile, Harbin Bank presents a compelling technical buy opportunity, with strong bullish signals and ambitious price targets pointing to significant upside potential.

As always, investors are encouraged to stay vigilant, review their risk tolerance, and consult with financial experts before making portfolio adjustments in light of these developments.