Maybank Research Pte Ltd
May 2025
Navigating Market Opportunities: A Deep Dive into Key Singaporean and ASEAN Stocks
Idea of the Week: Sea Ltd – A Stellar Start to 1Q25
Sea Ltd showcased impressive results in 1Q25, with adjusted EBITDA surging to USD947m, marking a 2.5x year-over-year and 60% quarter-over-quarter increase, surpassing Street estimates by 44%. [[1]] Garena bookings saw a 51% YoY rise, while DFS experienced a 58% growth. E-commerce EBITDA also positively surprised due to take rate, ads, and lower S&M expenses. Looking ahead to 2Q25, while some softening may occur as CNY/Lebaran effects diminish, growth drivers include the launches of Delta Force Mobile and Free City (in-house) games, along with DFS’s off-platform expansion. FY25–27 EBITDA forecasts have been raised by 6–8%, and the Target Price (TP) increased by 7% to USD186, reflecting stronger forecasts and higher e-commerce valuation. Maybank maintains a BUY recommendation. [[1]]
Hopeful Tomorrows: US-China Trade Relations and ASEAN Opportunities
There is emerging optimism as the US adopts a more accommodating stance on trade, stepping back from worst-case tariff scenarios with China. This development may lead to a 0.3% upgrade in China’s GDP, according to Maybank’s Macro Team. Furthermore, ASEAN countries are seeing bright spots, with the US prioritizing negotiations with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Singapore is also seeking concessions on pharmaceuticals and access to advanced semicon chips. [[1]]
AEM (AEM SP): Sell Recommendation
Despite the brighter outlook, Jarick Seet maintains a SELL rating on AEM. Recent results indicate the company is still in the early phases of transitioning to new customers, and management guidance suggests a flat 2Q. [[1]]
CSE Global (CSE SP): Bullish View Reiterated
Jarick Seet reiterates a bullish view on CSE. The second half of 2025 is expected to be stronger due to new order wins. The company is well-positioned amidst Trump policies on US reshoring, benefiting all its business segments. Its 50% dividend policy ensures a yield exceeding 6%, providing clear shareholder returns. [[1]]-[[2]]
SingPost (SPOST SP): Asset Monetization Path
SingPost delivered a good dividend post 2H, although slightly below expectations. This is potentially a timing issue given the new Board. The asset monetization path is unlikely to change, and with elections concluded, management will likely accelerate asset disposals to unlock value. Maybank maintains a BUY recommendation. [[2]]
Genting Singapore (GENS SP): Undervalued Cash Pile
Samuel Yin believes the market is undervaluing Genting Singapore’s substantial cash reserves. Operations are expected to rebound strongly in 2H25 with new hotel capacity for VIP and premium players. The BUY call reflects a 42% upside. [[2]]
Trading Ideas: Sembcorp and Oiltek
The Chart Guy highlights a TRADING BUY on Sembcorp and a TRADING SELL on Oiltek. [[2]]
Thakral Corporation: Corporate Presentation
An exclusive corporate presentation from Thakral Corporation is scheduled for 22 May. The company is focused on multiple growth drivers in Asia and Australia through its investment portfolio and strategic expansion in beauty, fragrances, and drones. [[2]]-[[3]]
First Resources (FR SP): Upgraded to BUY
First Resources’ 1Q25 PATMI exceeded expectations. While a seasonally weaker 2Q25 is anticipated due to low output, earnings are expected to recover in 2H25. Recent price weakness is viewed as pricing in market negatives, offering a good entry point. Despite trimmed EPS to account for higher export levy and newly acquired Austindo (ANJ) assets, First Resources offers a 12% total return to the new TP of SGD1.57 (from SGD1.69) on an unchanged 9x FY25 PER. The rating is raised to a tactical BUY from HOLD. [[3]]-[[4]]
Singapore Post Ltd (SPOST SP): Special Dividend Analysis
SingPost reported an underlying loss of SGD0.5m in 2HFY25, primarily due to declining revenues and high operating costs of its post office network. A special dividend of SGD0.09/share was slightly below the expected SGD0.10/share. The new board will determine the future strategy, focusing mainly on asset monetization. The new SOTP-based TP is SGD0.74. [[4]]
Genting Singapore (GENS SP): Decent Start to 2025
Genting Singapore’s 1Q25 earnings aligned with expectations, with VIP volume and mass market recovering QoQ. Operations are expected to strengthen from 3Q25 with the opening of The Laurus hotel. Earnings estimates, BUY call, and SGD1.01 DCF-TP are maintained. The market is seen as discounting its significant net cash pile. CEO Tan Hee Teck will retire. [[4]]-[[5]]
CSE Global (CSE SP): Stronger 2H25 Expected
Management anticipates order wins to increase significantly in 2H25, with earnings weighted towards the second half due to project timings. CSE is reserving capacity, particularly in the US, for projects in the data-center/utilities markets. The company is expected to benefit from Trump’s policies encouraging US-based factories and is seen as a key beneficiary of the MAS \$5bn program. [[5]]
Major News: Singtel, Singapore Exports, and HPL
Singtel sold a 1.2% direct stake in India’s Bharti Airtel for S\$2 billion as part of its capital management strategy. [[5]] Singapore’s key exports surged 12.4% in April, driven by stronger shipments of electronics and non-electronics. Shares of Ong Beng Seng’s HPL jumped more than 9%, prompting an SGX query. [[5]]-[[6]]
ASEAN Economics: Trade War De-Escalation
A de-escalating global trade war is improving prospects for reciprocal tariff negotiations. The US has prioritized talks with 20 nations, including Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. US tariffs on China are expected to cap at 30%, and ASEAN countries with reciprocal tariffs higher than 30% are likely to conclude deals below this level. [[6]]
OCBC Bank (OCBC SP): Cautious Momentum
OCBC’s 1Q25 earnings exceeded Street expectations, with trading and insurance contributing the most to the surprise. However, uncertain markets and US policy changes may impact future performance. Risks of guidance downgrades in 2H25 are present. A strong balance sheet and commitments to capital returns offer downside protection. The TP is raised to SGD17.08, with a HOLD rating. [[7]]
Lendlease Global Comm REIT (LREIT SP): Steady Performance
LREIT’s 3Q business update indicates steady operations and new management priorities focused on portfolio optimization and financial flexibility. Portfolio occupancy remains high but fell sequentially due to lower occupancy at 313@somerset. Positive reversion continued, while tenant sales normalized. Gearing remains elevated, and debt costs decreased due to repayments and lower base rates. Management is focused on reducing gearing. Maybank maintains a HOLD rating. [[7]]-[[8]]
ComfortDelGro (CD SP): A Matter of Timing
ComfortDelGro’s 1Q25 core PATMI of SGD51.2m achieved approximately 22%/21% of MIBG/consensus full-year forecasts. While EBIT across segments in Singapore improved due to cost control, PAT was affected by higher interest expenses from increased borrowings. Sequential earnings growth is expected, and FY25-27E forecasts and TP of SGD1.64 remain unchanged. BUY on share price weakness. [[8]]
AEM Holdings (AEM SP): Still Too Early
AEM’s 1Q25 revenue declined 35% YoY to SGD86m. The company is in the early stages of transitioning to new customers. Revenue from new customers doubled QoQ as AIMS-BS shifted into production testing. However, revenue guidance for 1H25 remains unchanged, pointing to a flat 2Q25. The SELL rating is maintained with a higher TP of SGD1.12, based on a higher 14x blended FY25/26E P/E. [[8]]-[[9]]
Question of the Week: ST Engineering (STE SP) Analysis
ST Engineering’s 1Q25 revenue rose 8% YoY to SGD2.9b, led by defense and public security (revenue +18% YoY to SGD1.3b). Seasonal factors should drive stronger growth in 2H25 for the USS business. The DPS was maintained at SGD4c for 1Q25. The order book increased 4.6% QoQ/7.6% YoY to SGD29.8b, with new orders of SGD4.4b. Management commentary suggests immaterial tariff impact as of now. [[9]]
Commercial aerospace revenue may be deferred (Chart of the Week: Market Trends
Risk assets were buoyed by the tariff deal between the US and China. A gauge of global stocks was on track for an eighth day of gains. Japan’s economy shrank for the first time in a year. The 10-year Treasury yield was lower after declining 10 basis points. [[10]]
Trading Ideas: Sembcorp Industries and Oiltek International
* Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) – SGD6.61 | ACCUMULATE (TECHNICAL)
* Sembcorp is consolidating within a sideways range, repeatedly testing its resistance line while maintaining its position above the 21-day EMA, indicating a potential breakout.
* Despite a recent RSI decline, it has made a fresh uptick and remains above 50, suggesting intact bullish momentum.
* Buy Range (SGF): 6.15 ~ 6.61
* Resistance (SGD): R1: 7.08, R2: 7.75
* Time Frame: 6 – 8 Weeks
* Stop-loss (SGD): Below 5.75 [[11]]
* Oiltek International Ltd (OTEK SP) – SGD0.585 | DISTRIBUTE (TECHNICAL)
* Oiltek has shown strong bullish momentum since the gap-down move on 7 Apr 2025.
* The recent rally has stretched the price significantly away from its 21-day EMA.
* With the completion of a bearish engulfing pattern, bullish momentum may be fading.
* Profit-taking could resume, supported by a fresh downtick in the RSI.
* The next technical support is seen at SGD0.540
* Sell Range (SGD): 0.585 ~ 0.620
* Support (SGD): S1: 0.540, S2: 0.475
* Time Frame: 6 – 8 Weeks
* Stop-loss (SGD): Above 0.650 [[11]]
Top Insider Activity, Dividend Yields, and Traded Stocks
Lists of top insider activity, dividend yields, and the top 20 traded stocks in the prior week are included. [[12]]
Upcoming Events
Calendar of events, including the Corporate Access Exclusive with Thakral Corporation on May 22 and DataCenter Nights with SemiAnalysis on May 28. [[13]]
