Singapore Stock Market Rebound: STI Nears Record High After Tariff War Fears Subside

OCBC Investment Research Private Limited

14 May 2025

Singapore Equities: A Month of Remarkable Recovery – Is the Bull Run Sustainable?

Following a sharp market downturn in early April, Singapore’s equity market has staged a significant comeback. This report analyzes the factors driving this recovery, identifies key gainers, and assesses the sustainability of the current market momentum.

Market Overview: From Crisis to Recovery

• After a 7.5% single-day decline on 7 April 2025, the Straits Times Index (STI) has rebounded by 9.6%, closing at 3,881.05 on 13 May 2025. [[1]]
• This recovery has been broad-based, with almost all sectors participating in the gains. [[1]]
• The energy sector led the charge, posting an average gain of 25.4% from its recent low. [[1]]
• Financials recovered 10%, real estate regained 11.7%, and industrials rose 16.5% during the same period. [[1]]
• The STI is now just 2.5% away from its all-time historical closing high of 3,981.57. [[1]]

Key Drivers of the Rebound

• Easing Trade Tensions: Negotiations between the US and China have temporarily lowered tariffs, reducing the probability of a US recession. [[1]] This has boosted market sentiment and corporate earnings expectations. [[1]]
• Political Stability: The successful handover to the new 4th generation leadership in Singapore, with a strong election win (65.6% of the vote and 87 out of 97 seats in Parliament), provides political stability and policy continuity. [[1]] This is expected to foster a positive investment climate. [[1]]

Singapore: A Safe Haven for Investors

• Singapore’s strong fundamentals, pro-business policies, robust infrastructure, and attractive valuations make it a safe haven for investors, even amidst global uncertainty. [[1]]
• High dividend yields for select blue chips, resulting from recent price corrections, further enhance Singapore’s appeal. [[1]]
• Singapore banks are pivotal index components offering high dividend yields. [[1]] For instance, DBS’s dividend yield reached 8.1% at its recent low, although it has since adjusted to 6.8% following price gains. [[1]]
• Stable domestic policies and a service-focused economy should help cushion the impact of potential tariff wars. [[1]]

Investment Strategy: Focus on the Long Term

• Short-term volatility is expected to persist, but healthy fundamentals should provide long-term support. [[1]]
• Singapore banks are recommended as a core part of a well-diversified portfolio, offering healthy dividends and share buyback programs. [[1]]

Performance of Key Singapore Stocks

• Since the last report on 10 April 2025, Singapore stocks under coverage have shown significant price recovery. [[1]]
• Here’s a summary of the gains:
  • Keppel Ltd: 19.1% [[1]]
  • Keppel REIT: 9.0% [[1]]
  • Mapletree Industrial Trust: 7.1% [[1]]
  • Nanofilm Technologies International Ltd: 22.0% [[1]]
  • OUE Real Estate Investment Trust: 16.0% [[1]]
  • SATS Ltd: 20.7% [[1]]
  • Sembcorp Industries Ltd: 8.8% [[1]]
  • Sheng Siong Group Ltd: 16.1% [[1]]
  • SIA Engineering Co Ltd: 21.5% [[2]]
  • Singapore Airlines Ltd: 14.2% [[2]]
  • Singapore Exchange Ltd: 15.9% [[2]]
  • Singapore Post Ltd: 27.6% [[2]]
  • Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd: 12.5% [[2]]
  • Singapore Telecommunications Ltd: 9.1% [[2]]
  • United Overseas Bank Ltd: 14.1% [[2]]

Valuation Analysis

• Despite the recent rally, valuations for Singapore’s blue chips, as measured by the STI, remain inexpensive. [[2]]
• The current price-earnings ratio is 12.2x (versus the 10-year average of 12.5x). [[2]]
• The price-book ratio is 1.26x (versus the 10-year average of 1.17x). [[2]]
• The estimated dividend yield is 5.6% (versus the 10-year average of 4.44%). [[2]]

Exhibit 1: Strong Recovery After the Sharp Decline! [[2]]

Individual Stock Performance Analysis

Boustead Singapore Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 7.1% (0.980 to 1.050) [[3]]

Bumitama Agri Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 0.0% (0.760 to 0.760) [[3]]

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 7.8% (2.440 to 2.630) [[3]]

CapitaLand Ascott Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 8.9% (0.785 to 0.855) [[3]]

CapitaLand China Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 19.1% (0.575 to 0.685) [[3]]

Capitaland India Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 14.1% (0.850 to 0.970) [[3]]

CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 3.5% (1.990 to 2.060) [[3]]

CapitaLand Investment Ltd/Singapore

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 8.6% (2.339 to 2.540) [[3]]

China Aviation Oil Singapore Corp Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 9.2% (0.765 to 0.835) [[3]]

City Developments Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 10.6% (4.350 to 4.810) [[3]]

ComfortDelGro Corp Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 10.1% (1.390 to 1.530) [[3]]

DBS Group Holdings Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 19.0% (37.160 to 44.230) [[3]]

First Real Estate Investment Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 8.2% (0.245 to 0.265) [[3]]

Frasers Centrepoint Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 6.3% (2.080 to 2.210) [[3]]

Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 7.0% (0.790 to 0.845) [[3]]

Genting Singapore Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 10.4% (0.670 to 0.740) [[3]]

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 2.1% (0.240 to 0.245) [[3]]

Keppel DC REIT

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 14.1% (1.920 to 2.190) [[3]]

Keppel Infrastructure Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 1.3% (0.390 to 0.395) [[3]]

Keppel Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 19.1% (5.660 to 6.740) [[3]]

Keppel REIT

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 9.0% (0.780 to 0.850) [[3]]

Mapletree Industrial Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 7.1% (1.840 to 1.970) [[3]]

Mapletree Logistics Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 6.7% (1.050 to 1.120) [[3]]

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 7.1% (1.130 to 1.210) [[3]]

Nanofilm Technologies International Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 22.0% (0.455 to 0.555) [[3]]

NETLINK NBN TRUST

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 5.8% (0.865 to 0.915) [[3]]

OUE Real Estate Investment Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 16.0% (0.250 to 0.290) [[3]]

Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 0.5% (4.050 to 4.070) [[3]]

SATS Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 20.7% (2.460 to 2.970) [[3]]

Sea Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 29.4% (119.090 to 154.130) [[3]]

Seatrium Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 24.4% (1.680 to 2.090) [[3]]

Sembcorp Industries Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 8.8% (6.040 to 6.570) [[3]]

Sheng Siong Group Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 16.1% (1.610 to 1.870) [[3]]

SIA Engineering Co Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 21.5% (1.910 to 2.320) [[3]]

Singapore Airlines Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 14.2% (5.990 to 6.840) [[3]]

Singapore Exchange Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 15.9% (12.120 to 14.050) [[3]]

Singapore Post Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 27.6% (0.490 to 0.625) [[3]]

Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 12.5% (6.300 to 7.090) [[3]]

Singapore Telecommunications Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 9.1% (3.400 to 3.710) [[3]]

Starhill Global REIT

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 7.5% (0.465 to 0.500) [[3]]

Stoneweg European Real Estate Investment Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 10.0% (1.400 to 1.540) [[3]]

Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 7.5% (1.060 to 1.140) [[3]]

Thai Beverage PCL

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 6.5% (0.465 to 0.495) [[3]]

United Overseas Bank Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 14.1% (30.990 to 35.370) [[3]]

UOL Group Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 5.7% (5.440 to 5.750) [[3]]

Wilmar International Ltd

• Price change from 09-Apr-25 to 13-May-25: 0.0% (3.060 to 3.060) [[3]]

Exhibit 2: Singapore Stocks Posted Good Gains [[3]]

Conclusion

Singapore’s equity market has demonstrated resilience and strong recovery potential. While short-term volatility remains a concern, the underlying fundamentals and attractive valuations suggest a positive outlook for long-term investors. Key sectors like financials, real estate, and technology are poised for further growth, and select blue-chip stocks offer compelling investment opportunities.