Automobile – China
Weekly: PV Sales Rebound By 10% yoy; Beat Expectations
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded by 10% yoy and 13% wow to 514,134 units in the week of 26 Aug-1 Sep 2024. However, the market share for passenger electric vehicles (PEV) dropped to 49.6% from 53% the previous week. Li Auto saw week-on-week sales decline during the same period. Despite this, Geely’s Zeekr and Galaxy models witnessed strong sales growth, driven by new model launches. CATL’s market share in the global EV battery market remained steady at 38% for the first seven months of 2024.

• Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV.
• Top SELL: XPeng.

What’s New

• China’s PV Insurance Registrations: Rebounded by 10% yoy in the 35th week of 2024 (26 Aug-1 Sep 2024), beating expectations due to increased subsidies. Total registrations were 514,100 units (+10% yoy/+9% mom/+13% wow).
  • PEV and ICE-Cars: Insurance registrations for PEVs were 254,900 units (+55% yoy/+12% mom/+6% wow), while for ICE-cars, the registrations were 258,200 units (-14% yoy/+7% mom/+20% wow).
  • PEV Market Share: Dipped by 3.1ppt week-on-week to 49.6%. Year-to-date, PV insurance registrations in China totalled 13.53 million units (+3% yoy), with PEVs making up 5.97 million units (+41% yoy) and ICE-cars at 7.57 million units (-15% yoy). The full-year estimate for PV retail sales in 2024 is 22 million units (+1% yoy), including 9.75 million PEVs (+33% yoy) and 12.25 million ICE-cars (-15% yoy).

Company Highlights:

• BYD: BYD’s insurance registrations surpassed expectations at 91,800 units (+72% yoy/+11% mom/+1% wow) for the 35th week of 2024, bringing total registrations for the first 35 weeks to 2.055 million units (+26% yoy). Wholesale shipments in August 2024 were 373,083 units (+36% yoy/+9% mom), in line with the full-year estimate of 4.0 million units (+32% yoy).
• Li Auto: Li Auto’s registrations grew by 53% yoy but declined by 4% mom and 3% wow to 11,300 units, aligning with estimates. Year-to-date registrations totalled 293,000 units.
• XPeng: XPeng’s insurance registrations came in above estimates at 3,500 units (+13% yoy/+59% mom/+25% wow), bringing cumulative registrations for the first 35 weeks to 70,600 units, below the company’s targeted 2024 deliveries of 280,000 units.
• Geely: Zeekr’s sales grew 48% yoy, and Galaxy saw a 76% month-on-month increase in the 35th week.

Conclusion:

Maintaining a MARKET WEIGHT stance on the sector, analysts favor auto part manufacturers over OEMs due to their strong positioning in the trends of electrification and intelligentization.

• Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV.
• Top SELL: XPeng remains a top sell due to sustained losses and cash outflows.

  Thank you