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Genting Singapore (GENS SP): 1Q25 Earnings Preview & 2H25 Growth Catalysts

Posted on April 28, 2025 at 9:22 am (GMT+8)

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Genting Singapore: Navigating Subdued Tourism with New Attractions – CGS International Report

CGS International

April 24, 2025

Genting Singapore: Muted Impact from Marina Bay Sands Results, New Attractions Key to Growth

Executive Summary

  • Marina Bay Sands (MBS) reported strong 1Q25 results, but Genting Singapore (GENS) is unlikely to see the same level of benefit.
  • GENS’s 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be S\$315m, down 14.8% year-on-year. [[1]]
  • Reiterate Add rating with a target price of S\$1.05, anticipating earnings growth from new attractions in 2H25F. [[1]]

Marina Bay Sands 1Q25 Performance

  • MBS achieved a record hold-adjusted EBITDA of US\$605m, driven by mass gaming revenue of US\$775m. [[1]]
  • Phase 2 renovation completion in MBS Tower 3 added 217 hotel rooms, enhancing tourist gamer catchment. [[1]]
  • Rolling chip volume for MBS decreased, signaling a potential slowdown in the VIP gaming segment. [[1]]

Genting Singapore’s Expected 1Q25 Results

  • GENS is expected to report adjusted EBITDA of S\$315m (-14.8% yoy, +39.8% qoq). [[1]]
  • Ongoing renovation works at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) are impacting room availability and overall performance. [[1]]
  • Higher-than-expected VIP win rates in 1Q24 set a high base, with potential margin compression expected in 1Q25F. [[1]]
  • Operating expenses are increasing in preparation for new attractions opening in 2H25F. [[1]]

Singapore Tourism Trends

  • 1Q25 international visitor arrivals (IVA) declined 1.1% year-on-year, reaching only 91.9% of 2019 levels. [[1]]
  • March 2025 IVA was approximately 1.3 million tourists, 82.9% of the corresponding period in 2019. [[1]]
  • Subdued tourism growth is expected in 2025 despite events like Lady Gaga concerts. [[1]]

Investment Thesis for Genting Singapore

  • Reiterate Add rating, expecting an adjusted EBITDA turnaround in 2H25F. [[1]]
  • New attractions include a revamped all-suite hotel, a renovated Forum, and the Singapore Oceanarium, all due in 3Q25F. [[1]]
  • These developments will accommodate larger footfall, even with potentially weak tourism recovery. [[1]]
  • Target price remains at S\$1.05, based on 8x FY26F EV/EBITDA, 0.5 standard deviations below GENS’s 5-year mean. [[1]]

Key Catalysts and Risks

  • Re-rating catalysts: Outperformance in VIP market share, earlier-than-expected opening of new attractions. [[1]]
  • Downside risks: Delayed openings, slow footfall uptick, and lower-than-expected win rates. [[1]]

Company Information

  • Rating: ADD (no change) [[1]]
  • Consensus ratings: Buy 10 Hold 8 Sell 0 [[1]]
  • Current price: S\$0.735 [[1]]
  • Target price: S\$1.05 [[1]]
  • Previous target: S\$1.05 [[1]]
  • Up/downside: 43.3% [[1]]
  • CGSI / Consensus: 7.6% [[1]]
  • ADR: GIGNY US US\$29.79 Tp: US\$42.70 [[1]]
  • Reuters: GENS.SI [[1]]
  • Bloomberg: GENS SP [[1]]
  • Market cap: US\$6,776m / S\$8,881m [[1]]
  • Average daily turnover: US\$17.89m / S\$23.96m [[1]]
  • Current shares o/s: 12,094m [[1]]
  • Free float: 47.1% [[1]]

Major Shareholders

  • Genting Bhd: 52.7% [[1]]
  • Vanguard Group: 1.4% [[1]]
  • Blackrock: 1.4% [[1]]

Key Financial Forecasts

Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Net Profit (S\$m) 604.2 687.6 695.3
Core EPS (S\$) 0.050 0.057 0.058
Core EPS Growth 13.8% 1.1%
FD Core P/E (x) 14.70 12.91 12.77
Normalised EPS (S\$) 0.050 0.057 0.058
Normalised EPS Growth 13.8% 1.1%
FD Normalised P/E (x) 14.70 12.91 12.77
Recurring ROE 7.23% 8.07% 8.02%
P/BV (x) 1.05 1.03 1.02
DPS (S\$) 0.040 0.040 0.040
Dividend Yield 5.44% 5.44% 5.44%

Price Performance

  • 1M Absolute: -3.9% [[1]]
  • 3M Absolute: 0.0% [[1]]
  • 12M Absolute: -21.8% [[1]]
  • 1M Relative: -0.6% [[1]]
  • 3M Relative: -0.4% [[1]]
  • 12M Relative: -48.7% [[1]]

Analyst Information

Peers Comparison

Peers comparison (as of 23 Apr 2025) [[2]]:

Company Ticker Recom. Price (lcl curr) TP (lcl curr) Market Cap (US\$ m) FD Core P/E (x) CY25F FD Core P/E (x) CY26F 3-year EPS CAGR (% ) Net Gearing (% ) Recur. ROE (% ) CY25F Recur. ROE (% ) CY26F EV/ EBITDA (x) CY25F EV/ EBITDA (x) CY26F Div. Yield (% ) CY25F Div. Yield (% ) CY26F
Genting Singapore GENS SP Add 0.735 1.05 6,776 14.7 12.9 4.4% 82.9% 7.2% 8.1% 5.2 4.6 5.4% 5.4%
Genting Malaysia GENM MK Add 1.68 3.65 2,169 9.5 7.7 24.0% 0.0% 7.4% 9.0% 3.6 3.2 9.8% 10.7%
Genting Bhd GENT MK Add 3.24 6.00 2,842 6.9 6.3 na 5.1% 5.4% 4.8 4.6 4.6% 4.6%
Paradise 034230 KS Add 12,270 11,000 792 16.6 15.0 na 20.0% 4.5% 4.7% 7.7 7.1 0.8% 0.8%
Grand Korea Leisure 114090 KS Add 12,090 13,000 526 13.5 10.3 na 40.0% 12.5% 14.9% 6.8 5.4 2.9% 2.9%
Kangwon Land 035250 KS Add 15,950 19,000 2,400 10.5 9.9 -8.7% 60.0% 8.1% 8.5% 0.4 0.0 5.6% 6.0%
Melco Resorts & Entertainment MLCO US NR 4.90 NA 2,085 FALSE 9.6 87.9% NA -12.0% -24.1% 7.5 7.1 0.9% 3.0%
MGM Resorts International MGM US NR 30.77 NA 8,706 14.2 11.5 8.5% FALSE 20.2% 23.2% 3.0 2.8 0.0% 0.0%
Wynn Macau Ltd 1128 HK NR 5.14 NA 3,482 FALSE 8.7 FALSE NA -21.2% -31.4% 7.3 6.9 4.4% 5.2%
Wynn Resorts Ltd WYNN US NR 79.11 NA 8,399 15.1 14.4 5.8% FALSE ##### 20.5% 7.7 7.4 1.3% 1.3%
Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS US NR 34.38 NA 24,294 13.9 12.2 15.8% FALSE 56.5% 57.9% 8.0 7.4 2.9% 3.0%

International Visitor Arrivals vs. FY19

  • 1Q25 international visitor arrivals fell 1.1% yoy, and represents only 91.9% of FY19 levels. [[2]]

Financial Statements

Profit & Loss (S\$m)

Dec-24A Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total Net Revenues 2,534 2,647 3,033 3,174
Gross Profit 855 942 1,098 1,123
Operating EBITDA 960 1,057 1,249 1,302
Depreciation And Amortisation -356 -406 -484 -528
Operating EBIT 604 651 765 774
Financial Income/(Expense) 137 118 111 112
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. 5 0 0 0
Non-Operating Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) 731 770 876 886
Exceptional Items -15 0 0 0
Pre-tax Profit 731 770 876 886
Taxation -152 -165 -188 -190
Profit After Tax 579 604 688 695
Minority Interests 0 0 0 0
Net Profit 594 604 688 695
Recurring Net Profit 610 604 688 695
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit 610 604 688 695
Normalised Net Profit 579 604 688 695
Fully Diluted Normalised Profit 594 604 688 695

Balance Sheet (S\$m)

Dec-24A Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents 3,588 3,397 3,068 2,616
Total Debtors 274 169 177 189
Inventories 50 53 60 64
Total Current Assets 3,912 3,619 3,305 2,869
Fixed Assets 5,075 5,455 6,079 6,667
Total Investments 77 77 77 77
Intangible Assets 110 84 57 31
Total Other Non-Current Assets 56 56 56 56
Total Non-current Assets 5,318 5,671 6,269 6,831
Short-term Debt 0 0 0 0
Total Creditors 572 510 590 623
Other Current Liabilities 179 179 179 179
Total Current Liabilities 751 689 769 802
Total Long-term Debt 0 0 0 0
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities 17 17 17 17
Total Non-current Liabilities 17 17 17 17
Total Provisions 165 165 165 165
Total Liabilities 933 871 951 984
Shareholders’ Equity 8,298 8,419 8,624 8,715
Minority Interests 0 0 0 0
Total Equity 8,298 8,419 8,624 8,715

Cash Flow (S\$m)

Dec-24A Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
EBITDA 960 1,057 1,249 1,302
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. -5 0 0 0
Change In Working Capital -239 -160 -147 -204
Other Operating Cashflow 185 201 211 222
Net Interest (Paid)/Received 141 118 111 112
Tax Paid -183 -165 -188 -190
Cashflow From Operations 860 1,051 1,236 1,241
Capex -423 -759 -1,082 -1,090
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments -34 0 0 0
Other Investing Cashflow 56 0 0 0
Cash Flow From Investing -401 -759 -1,082 -1,090
Debt Raised/(repaid) -2 0 0 0
Dividends Paid -483 -483 -483 -604
Cash Flow From Financing -485 -483 -483 -604
Total Cash Generated -27 -191 -329 -452
Free Cashflow To Equity 456 292 154 151
Free Cashflow To Firm 460 292 154 151

Key Ratios

Dec-24A Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Revenue Growth 4.6% 4.6% 14.6% 4.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth (5.7%) 11.9% 18.1% 4.3%
Operating EBITDA Margin 37.3% 40.0% 41.2% 41.0%
Net Cash Per Share (S\$) 0.30 0.28 0.25 0.22
BVPS (S\$) 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72
Effective Tax Rate 20.8% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio 81.3% 79.9% 70.2% 86.8%
Accounts Receivables Days 37.22 30.54 20.80 21.06
Inventory Days 10.67 11.04 10.64 10.99
Accounts Payables Days 123.8 115.4 103.4 107.6
ROIC (%) 12.7% 13.5% 14.9% 13.7%
ROCE (%) 8.6% 9.0% 10.1% 10.0%
Return On Average Assets 4.97% 5.25% 6.11% 6.06%

Key Drivers

Dec-24A Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
VIP Chip Volume (% chg) -10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
VIP Chip Win (%) 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Mass market drop (% chg) 9.8% 8.1% 10.6% 5.8%

Recommendation Framework

  • Add: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months. [[8]]
  • Hold: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months. [[8]]
  • Reduce: The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months. [[8]]


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