Broker: DBS Bank Ltd
Date of Report: 30 April 2026
Excerpt from DBS Bank Ltd report.
Report Summary
- Key Call to Action: Maintain a broadly constructive view on upstream and integrated oil & gas equities; more caution warranted on downstream/refining-exposed stocks. Upstream & integrated oil plays could gain momentum as geopolitical risks escalate.
- Oil Price Forecasts (Brent):
- 2026: Average USD 85-90/bbl (up from previous forecast of USD 80-85/bbl)
- 2027: Average USD 72-77/bbl (up from previous forecast of USD 65-70/bbl)
- Scenario Probabilities:
- Base Case (50%): Deal in 2Q26, gradual reopening of Hormuz, normalization by end-2026. Brent near-term: USD 90-110/bbl (spikes to USD 125/bbl possible), moderating to USD 80/bbl by year end.
- Bear Case (30%): Prolonged stalemate, higher prices: USD 110-125/bbl (potential spikes to USD 150/bbl), moderating to USD 90-100/bbl medium term.
- Worst Case (20%): Renewed escalation, severe supply disruption. Near-term Brent: USD 125/bbl+; fears of USD 150-200/bbl could resurface.
- Key Risks & Watch Items:
- US-Iran talks remain in stalemate; “dual blockade” at Strait of Hormuz continues.
- Mine-clearing operations could delay full normalization by up to 6 months post-conflict.
- UAE exits OPEC effective May 1, could increase supply when Strait reopens, bears on long-term oil price floor (USD 65-70/bbl).
- Tail risks: Potential for military escalation or mine incident causing oil price spikes.
- Actionable Insights for Investors:
- Upstream and integrated oil names have further upside potential as consensus 2026 earnings estimates are upgraded on higher oil price assumptions.
- Dividend visibility remains strong for oil majors.
- Correction possible only if a surprise US-Iran deal is reached; otherwise, further upside supported.
above is an excerpt from a report by DBS Bank Ltd. Clients of DBS Bank Ltd can be the first to access the full report from the DBS website : https://www.dbs.com/
