中国南方航空股份有限公司2026年可转债跟踪评级报告深度解读

一、评级结果与关键信息

中国南方航空股份有限公司（以下简称“公司”或“南方航空”）近期获得联合资信评估股份有限公司维持主体长期信用等级为AAA，可转换公司债券“南航转债”信用等级亦为AAA，评级展望为稳定。该评级反映公司在中国航空运输行业中的龙头地位、强大的股东支持、持续改善的经营及财务表现，以及畅通的外部融资渠道。

二、核心亮点与投资者需关注事项

• 市场地位稳固：南方航空为南航集团航空业务唯一运营主体，机队规模（972架）、年旅客运输量（1.74亿人次）、客座率（85.74%）等多项指标均居行业领先，国际航线快速恢复带动公司收入持续增长。
• 盈利能力提升：2025年公司营业收入达1822.56亿元，同比增长4.61%；利润总额48.11亿元，净利润26.85亿元。EBITDA利息倍数从5.55提升至6.89，显示盈利及偿债能力持续改善。
• 政府与股东支持：控股股东南航集团及南航财务公司持续提供授信、委托贷款（授信额度300亿元，借款余额138.09亿元，委托贷款余额150.09亿元），2025年获得政府补助高达33.39亿元。
• 资本运作动态与潜在利好：公司计划向南航集团等特定投资者非公开发行A股，募资不超过150亿元（南航集团拟认购50-100亿元），用于引进飞机及补充流动资金。若获批并实施，将大幅提升公司资本实力及运力，优化资产负债结构，此举对公司估值和股价具备潜在积极推动作用。
• 债务结构及偿债压力：2025年底公司资产负债率84.27%，全部债务资本化比率81.45%，债务负担重且结构有待优化。短期偿债指标较弱（现金短期债务比仅0.18），但整体融资渠道宽广。
• 成本压力与风险因素：航油成本为最大成本项，国际油价波动及汇率变化对利润影响较大。2025年航油成本同比下降4.48%，但未来地缘政治和油价上行风险需防范。
• ESG表现优良：公司积极推进“双碳”战略，2025年吨公里油耗降至历史最优水平。社会责任、信息披露、公司治理持续优化，获多项ESG评价与奖项。
• 重大战略投资：公司对四川航空增资46.8亿元（按持股比例），符合区域航空战略，短期计提投资损失但长期有望改善收益。

三、股东及投资者需要重点关注的事项（潜在价格敏感信息）

1. 拟向特定对象发行A股募资150亿元：
   • 若获批实施，将显著增强资本实力与运力，优化负债结构，对公司估值、偿债能力及长期成长具有实质性提升，属于典型的股价敏感事项。
   • 南航集团大额认购，显示大股东强力背书，有助于增强市场信心。
2. 债务高企与资本支出压力：
   • 2026-2028年计划交付飞机223架（资本支出承诺802.73亿元），资本开支巨大，需持续关注融资进展与偿债能力变化。
3. 航油价格和汇率波动风险：
   • 如油价每升降10%，将影响公司年度营运成本52.53亿元，极大冲击利润表现。
4. 四川航空投资及退出机制：
   • 若2028年前四川航空不能上市，公司可按章程转让股权，川航集团需承接，投资可回收性明确，有助于风险防控。
5. “南航转债”剩余58.96亿元：
   • 转股比例高、含转股向下修正及提前赎回条款，有助于减轻偿债压力，但需关注剩余转债的转股进展及相关条款变化。

四、财务与经营表现细节

• 2025年末资产总额3498.14亿元，所有者权益550.11亿元，短期债务1086.18亿元，长期债务1329.81亿元，全部债务2415.99亿元。
• 营业总收入1822.56亿元，营业利润率9.81%，净资产收益率4.88%。
• 经营活动现金净流入382.09亿元，现金收入比109.62%。
• 流动比率27.64%，速动比率25.50%。
• 2025年飞机引进78架，机队净增55架。
• 国际航线客运收入大幅增长（同比+15.15%），国内收入稳健。
• 2025年航班正常率、服务质量、品牌力持续提升，连续8年获“最佳航空公司奖”。

五、行业与宏观环境简析

• 2025-2026年宏观政策侧重稳增长、扩大内需、现代化产业体系建设，有利于航空运输行业长期发展。
• 行业整体经营向好，国际客货运输需求恢复，行业龙头企业业绩改善。
• 但中东局势、油价波动、市场竞争及替代交通方式（高铁）等依然带来不确定性。

六、结论

联合资信维持南方航空及“南航转债”AAA评级，展望稳定。公司基本面持续改善、资本实力有望增强，但高负债、高资本开支、油价与汇率波动等需持续监控。拟定增募资事项与大股东强力支持为市场关注焦点，短期内有望成为股价催化剂。

免责声明

本文仅为基于公开评级报告的解读，不构成任何投资建议。投资者应结合自身风险偏好和实际情况审慎决策。股价或有波动，投资需谨慎。

English Version:

China Southern Airlines 2026 Convertible Bond Rating Report – Key Takeaways for Investors

1. Rating Results and Key Information

China Southern Airlines Company Limited (“the Company” or “CSA”) has had its issuer credit rating and “CSA Convertible Bond” rating reaffirmed at AAA with a Stable outlook by Lianhe Credit Rating. This reflects the company’s leading position in the Chinese aviation sector, solid shareholder backing, improving operating and financial performance, and robust access to external financing.

2. Core Highlights and Investor Focus Points

• Market Leadership: CSA is the sole operator of aviation business for CSA Group, ranking first in fleet size (972 aircraft), annual passenger volume (174 million), and seat occupancy (85.74%). Rapid international route recovery has driven continued income growth.
• Improved Profitability: In 2025, total revenue reached RMB 182.26 billion (+4.61% YoY); total profit was RMB 4.81 billion, net profit RMB 2.68 billion. EBITDA/interest ratio improved from 5.55 to 6.89, showing enhanced profitability and debt servicing capacity.
• Strong Government and Shareholder Support: CSA Group and the in-house finance company provide substantial credit and entrusted loans (credit line RMB 30 billion, balance RMB 13.81 billion; entrusted loan RMB 15.01 billion); government subsidies in 2025 reached RMB 3.34 billion.
• Capital Operation & Potential Upside: The company plans a private placement of A-shares to raise up to RMB 15 billion (CSA Group to subscribe RMB 5-10 billion), for aircraft and working capital. If approved, this will materially strengthen capital and capacity, optimize the balance sheet, and could positively impact valuation and share price.
• Debt Structure & Repayment Pressure: As of end-2025, asset-liability ratio was 84.27%, total debt capitalization 81.45%; debt load is heavy with weak short-term metrics (cash/short-term debt 0.18), but financing channels remain open.
• Cost Pressure & Risks: Jet fuel is the largest cost. Oil price and FX fluctuations have a big impact. In 2025, jet fuel costs fell 4.48% YoY, but future risks remain.
• Strong ESG Performance: Company actively advances “dual carbon” (decarbonization) strategy, energy efficiency at historic best. Social responsibility, disclosure, governance all improving, with multiple ESG recognitions.
• Strategic Investments: RMB 4.68 billion invested in Sichuan Airlines (proportional holding); short-term losses recognized, but long-term strategic benefit expected with clear exit mechanism.

3. Items for Shareholders to Closely Monitor (Potentially Price-Sensitive)

1. Proposed RMB 15 Billion A-Share Placement:
   • If approved, will significantly strengthen capital and operational capacity, optimize leverage—clearly a share price sensitive event.
   • Major shareholder’s commitment (CSA Group) signals strong support, likely to boost market confidence.
2. High Debt & Capex Pressures:
   • 2026–2028: 223 new aircraft to be delivered, capex commitment RMB 80.27 billion; large funding requirements, investors should monitor ongoing financing and repayment capacity.
3. Jet Fuel & FX Risks:
   • If average fuel price changes by 10%, annual costs move by RMB 5.25 billion, with significant profit impact.
4. Sichuan Airlines Investment & Exit:
   • If not listed by 2028, CSA can transfer its stake per charter. Commitments from Sichuan Airlines Group help mitigate investment recovery risks.
5. RMB 5.90 Billion Convertible Bonds Outstanding:
   • High conversion ratio, downward conversion price adjustment and early redemption clauses help reduce repayment burden. Investors should monitor future conversion and redemption developments.

4. Financial and Operating Details

• End-2025: Total assets RMB 349.81 billion, equity RMB 55.01 billion, short-term debt RMB 108.62 billion, long-term debt RMB 132.98 billion, total debt RMB 241.60 billion.
• Total revenue RMB 182.26 billion, EBIT margin 9.81%, ROE 4.88%.
• Operating cash inflow RMB 38.21 billion, cash income ratio 109.62%.
• Current ratio 27.64%, quick ratio 25.50%.
• 2025: 78 new aircraft introduced, net fleet increase of 55 units.
• International passenger route income surged (+15.15%), domestic stable.
• On-time rate, service quality, and brand value all improved; 8 consecutive years as “Best Airline” in industry surveys.

5. Industry and Macro Environment Overview

• 2025–2026: Macro policy supports stable growth, domestic demand, and modern industry development, benefiting aviation.
• Industry recovery ongoing, international passenger and cargo demand rebounding, leading airlines returning to profitability.
• However, Middle East tensions, oil price volatility, competition and high-speed rail alternatives remain risks.

6. Conclusion

Lianhe Credit maintains AAA ratings on CSA and its convertible bonds, outlook stable. Fundamentals are improving and capital strength likely to rise, but high debt, capex, oil/FX risk remain. The proposed share placement and strong shareholder support are key catalysts and could drive near-term share price upside.

Disclaimer

This article is an interpretation of a public credit rating report only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should evaluate all risks and their own circumstances before making any investment. Stock prices may be volatile; invest prudently.

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