Broker: China Galaxy International (CGI)
Date of Report: April 17, 2026
Excerpt from China Galaxy International report.
Report Summary
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Stock: Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS / 600519 CH)
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Action: Add (Reiterate)
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Target Price: Rmb1,570 (lowered from previous Rmb1,595)
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Current Price: Rmb1,463
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Key Idea: Despite a weak FY25 due to alcohol prohibition policies and sluggish baijiu consumption, Moutai is expected to recover in FY26F supported by market-oriented reforms and price increases. The company is focusing on strict supply control, price stability, and driving growth through direct sales channels rather than volume.
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Forecasts:
- FY26F revenue projected to rise by 2.7%, net profit to increase by 2.9%.
- Dividend yield attractive at around 4% for FY25-27F.
- EPS forecasts for FY26-27F cut by 11.3-13.3% due to weaker distributor sales outlook.
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Highlights:
- Market-oriented reforms include expanding Feitian Moutai sales via the iMoutai platform and introducing consignment sales through distributors.
- Growth is expected to come from price hikes and product mix upgrades, not volume.
- Key downside risks: stronger competition and weaker economy could impact premium baijiu demand.
- Potential upside: better-than-expected sales recovery, especially from business entertainment segment.
Above is an excerpt from a report by China Galaxy International. Clients of China Galaxy International can be the first to access the full report from the China Galaxy International website: https://www.chinastock.com.hk
