Broker: China Galaxy International
Date of Report: April 9, 2026
Excerpt from China Galaxy International report.
Report Summary
- Stock: Alibaba Group (9988 HK, ADR: BABA US)
- Action: Add (High Conviction)
- Target Price: HK\$175.0 (down from HK\$180.0)
- Current Price: HK\$126.5
- Upside: 38.3%
- Key Highlights:
- Alibaba’s 4QFY3/26F Customer Management Revenue (CMR) growth was 2% YoY, lagging mid-single-digit GMV growth due to higher merchant rebates.
- Quick Commerce (QC) losses are expected to halve in FY3/27F and FY3/28F and turn profitable in FY3/29F.
- Cloud revenue growth is forecast to accelerate to 40% YoY in 4QFY26F, with overseas business accounting for a double-digit share.
- Alibaba is rapidly expanding its AI capabilities, launching several new large models and targeting cloud and AI-related revenue to exceed US\$100bn by FY31F (CAGR of 40%+).
- FY26F-28F EPS estimates trimmed by up to 2.2% due to slower CMR growth.
- Re-rating catalysts: Improved e-commerce and AI/cloud revenue growth in FY27F.
- Key risks: Competition, higher subsidies, and large capex affecting margins.
above is an excerpt from a report by China Galaxy International. Clients of China Galaxy International can be the first to access the full report from the China Galaxy International website : https://www.chinastock.com.hk
