Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: April 2, 2026
Excerpt from CGS International report.
Report Summary
- Stock: Grab Holdings (GRAB US)
- Action: ADD (no change)
- Target Price: US\$6.25 (current price: US\$3.67; upside: 70.3%)
- Key Idea: Grab’s asset-light model limits direct fuel cost exposure, but persistent high fuel prices could pressure driver supply and demand. Grab may absorb higher costs via targeted subsidies and fare adjustments, but demand elasticity is a risk. The company’s strong balance sheet positions it well to defend or gain market share even if costs rise.
- Highlights:
- Fuel costs are mainly borne by driver-partners; Grab may intervene with subsidies and/or fare increases if needed.
- Incentive and subsidy costs are expected to rise, but the impact is manageable, especially for the mobility segment.
- Delivery segment is more sensitive to demand changes; every 1% downside in on-demand GMV could cut adjusted EBITDA by 2.8%.
- Strong balance sheet and limited direct cost exposure underpin the positive stance; potential catalysts include better cost optimisation, higher ad monetisation, and faster profitability in financial services.
- Risks: Prolonged high fuel prices, demand softness, higher incentive expenses, and regulatory risk in Indonesia.
- Implications: Investors are encouraged to ADD Grab for potential share gains and margin support based on the company’s ability to manage cost pressures and defend market share. Target price is US\$6.25.
above is an excerpt from a report by CGS International. Clients of CGS International can be the first to access the full report from the CGS International website : https://www.cgs-cimb.com
