InSilico Medicine Issues Profit Warning for FY2025

Key Highlights for Investors

• Expected Revenue Decline: InSilico Medicine Cayman TopCo (“the Company”) anticipates revenue in the range of USD 55.8 million to USD 56.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, a significant drop from USD 85.8 million in FY2024.
• Substantial Increase in Net Loss: The Company projects a loss attributable to owners of between USD 352.1 million and USD 355.8 million for FY2025, compared to a loss of just USD 17.1 million in FY2024.
• Major Non-Recurring, Non-Cash Loss: A key driver is a USD 296.7 million non-cash loss from changes in the fair value of redeemable convertible preferred shares.
• Sharp Drop in Pipeline Development Revenue: Revenue from upfront payments in pipeline development is expected to be only USD 15.0–15.3 million in 2025, compared to USD 58.0 million in 2024.
• Adjusted Loss (Non-IFRS Measure) Also Rising: The Company expects an adjusted loss (excluding certain non-cash and non-recurring items) of USD 43.6 million to USD 47.3 million, compared to USD 22.7 million in 2024.
• Decrease in R&D Expenses: The increase in adjusted loss is partially offset by lower research and development spending.
• Results Not Yet Audited: These figures are based on unaudited management accounts and may be subject to change.

Details and Analysis

In a profit warning announcement made pursuant to Hong Kong Listing Rules and relevant securities regulations, InSilico Medicine Cayman TopCo has informed shareholders and potential investors of a sharply negative outlook for its financial results in FY2025. The Company’s Board has conducted a preliminary assessment of unaudited consolidated management accounts and signaled that both revenue and profit metrics will deteriorate materially compared to the previous year.

Significant Revenue Decrease

The Company’s revenue for 2025 is expected to come in between USD 55.8 million and USD 56.3 million, representing a drop of approximately 35% from FY2024. This decline is primarily attributed to a substantial decrease in pipeline development revenue, specifically from upfront payments, which are projected at only USD 15.0–15.3 million for 2025 (versus USD 58.0 million in 2024). This shift signals either fewer or smaller development deals during the year, which could have long-term implications for the Company’s growth trajectory and investor sentiment.

Massive Year-on-Year Loss

The most striking figure in the announcement is the anticipated loss attributable to owners: USD 352.1 million to USD 355.8 million for FY2025, a staggering jump from the previous year’s USD 17.1 million loss. The Company explains that this huge swing is predominantly due to a USD 296.7 million loss from changes in fair value of redeemable convertible preferred shares, a non-recurring and non-cash accounting item. Nevertheless, the underlying operational loss is also expected to worsen as revenue falls.

Adjusted Loss (Non-IFRS) Worsening

On a non-IFRS basis, adjusting for non-cash and non-recurring items, the Company projects an adjusted loss of USD 43.6 million to USD 47.3 million in 2025, up from USD 22.7 million in 2024. The worsening adjusted loss is mainly attributed to the revenue decline, though partially offset by lower research and development expenses.

Ongoing Audit and Potential for Further Changes

Investors should note that these figures are based on preliminary, unaudited accounts and may be subject to change following audit committee and auditor review. The final annual results for FY2025 are expected to be published in March 2026.

Key Takeaways for Shareholders

• The combination of a revenue drop, massive accounting loss related to preferred shares, and rising adjusted losses are all highly material and likely to be price sensitive.
• Shareholders and potential investors are strongly advised to exercise caution when dealing in the Company’s shares, as the negative financial outlook could exert significant downward pressure on share price.
• Final audited results, with possible adjustments, will be published in March 2026, and may have further implications for the Company’s valuation and investor confidence.

Company Leadership

The announcement was authorized by Mr. Aleksandrs Zavoronkovs, Ph.D., Chairman, Executive Director, CEO, and CBO, along with a board comprising both executive and non-executive directors.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors are reminded that the information above is based on the Company’s preliminary, unaudited figures and may be subject to change. Please refer to official filings and consult your financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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