Broker Name: CGS International Securities
Date of Report: January 19, 2026
Excerpt from CGS International Securities report.
Report Summary
- Indonesia is considering capping Grab’s ride-hailing commissions at 10% (from 20%) for two-wheel rides, which could reduce FY26F EBITDA by 5-10%. Grab may offset this with higher fares, platform fees, or reduced partner incentives.
- Grab’s 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA is estimated at US\$135m, remaining stable year-on-year, but margins may have declined due to higher consumer and partner incentives during the festive season.
- The company’s revenue and GMV continued double-digit growth in both the deliveries and mobility segments, with financial services losses narrowing as loan books expand.
- Grab is projected to reach positive adjusted EBITDA across all segments by FY27F, with financial services expected to turn profitable from 4Q26F if credit loss allowances remain in check.
- The target price is maintained at US\$7.20 (64% upside from current price), with potential upside from regulatory clarity, cost optimization, and higher ad business penetration. Downside risks include full implementation of the Indonesia commission cap, higher credit losses, and increased regional corporate costs.
- Grab demonstrates strong governance and social impact in ESG, but faces environmental challenges due to slow EV adoption and regulatory risks in Indonesia, its largest market.
- Key financials: FY25F revenue US\$3.4bn (+22% yoy), group adjusted EBITDA US\$487m (+56% yoy), improving margins and cash flow outlook.
Above is an excerpt from a report by CGS International Securities. Clients of CGS International Securities can be the first to access the full report from the CGS International Securities website: https://www.cgs-cimb.com
