Bitcoin’s Latest Slide Driven by Spot Selling, Not Leverage

Bitcoin has fallen again — but this time, leverage isn’t to blame.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped as much as 7.4%, slipping below the US$100,000 mark for the first time since June. The token is now more than 20% off its record high reached just a month ago. Although Bitcoin pared some losses in early Wednesday trading in Asia, it remains under pressure.

Unlike the cascading liquidations that fueled October’s crash, the current decline stems from consistent selling in the spot market. This marks a shift from recent trends where sharp volatility was typically triggered by futures-market liquidations.

According to Thielen, “mega whales” — wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoin — began offloading large volumes earlier this year, even as institutional buyers tried to absorb the supply. That dynamic contributed to the choppy, sideways trading seen over the summer. Since the Oct 10 crash, however, demand has weakened further. “We broke through some on-chain indicators — people are underwater, they need to close their positions,” Thielen said.

Accumulation among holders with between 100 and 1,000 bitcoin has also fallen sharply. “The whales are just not buying,” he added.

Looking ahead, Thielen expects the market unwind could extend into next spring. During the 2021–2022 bear market, over one million bitcoin were sold by large holders across nearly a year — a scale he believes could repeat. “If this follows a similar pace,” he said, “we could see this going on for another six months.”

While he doesn’t foresee a catastrophic crash, Thielen cautions that further downside remains possible. “I am not a believer in the cycle,” he said. “But I’d expect consolidation and potentially a bit more weakness. US$85,000 is my maximum downside target.”

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