Broker: Maybank Research Pte Ltd
Date of Report: October 13, 2025
Excerpt from Maybank Research Pte Ltd report.
Report Summary
- Malaysian palm oil inventories rose to a 22-month high in September 2025 due to strong production and lower consumption, with stocks at 2.36 million tonnes—about 10% higher than expected.
- Exports picked up month-on-month, partly due to Indian festive demand, but remained below historical averages; imports also rose sharply, highlighting ample supplies in Indonesia.
- October inventory is projected to remain steady between 2.3 and 2.4 million tonnes, supported by continued strong production in East Malaysia and healthy export trends.
- US soybean and corn harvests are progressing well, with crop conditions above or near historical averages, reducing potential upward pressure on palm oil prices from competing oils.
- Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are currently trading at a premium to gas oil and sunflower oil in Europe, but at small discounts to US soybean oil and German rapeseed oil compared to historical averages.
- Geopolitical risks and high inventory levels could pressure CPO prices downward in the short term; Maybank maintains a NEUTRAL sector outlook, with SD Guthrie and Sarawak Oil Palms as top BUYs.
- Key risks include weather anomalies, oil price fluctuations, policy changes, and global demand shifts, while upside risks relate to weaker production recovery and rising crude oil prices.
Above is an excerpt from a report by Maybank Research Pte Ltd. Clients of Maybank Research Pte Ltd can be the first to access the full report from the Maybank Research website: https://www.maybank-keresearch.com
