Broker Name: DBS Bank
Date of Report: October 13, 2025
Excerpt from DBS Bank report.
Report Summary:
- US PMI data shows manufacturing is sluggish but not contracting, and services continue to expand; strong GDP growth is expected, so Fed rate cuts are not seen as necessary based on PMI alone.
- China’s exports to the US have dropped sharply due to trade tensions, but its total exports have increased thanks to higher sales to other countries, especially in Asia.
- Many Asian countries, including India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam, are experiencing growth in exports to China, while energy exporters see stagnant or declining values due to weak prices.
- US exports to China are down, but countries like Japan and the EU are seeing modest recoveries; Russia and other energy exporters maintain access to China, but weak prices limit values.
- As US-China trade tensions escalate, China is expected to offer greater market access to trading partners, potentially making it a more attractive export destination.
- Market volatility is expected due to US political brinksmanship, new US tariffs on China, and global uncertainty, with potential impacts on currencies and bond yields.
- DBS expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to slightly ease policy amid slowing GDP growth and muted inflation; China’s export growth is expected to moderate, and India’s inflation to fall below target.
- Fed rate cuts and global trade tensions are influencing Asian central banks toward dovish policies, while the US dollar strength poses a risk for Asian local currency bonds.
- Credit markets remain strong despite trade tensions, with Hong Kong real estate recovering; however, uncertainty remains due to potential US tariff actions.
- DBS provides updated economic, inflation, policy rate, and FX forecasts for Asia, the US, and Europe, reflecting expectations for continued volatility and policy adjustments through 2025-2026.
Above is an excerpt from a report by DBS Bank. Clients of DBS Bank can be the first to access the full report from the DBS website: https://www.dbs.com
