Broker: Maybank Research Pte Ltd

Date of Report: October 7, 2025

Excerpt from Maybank Research Pte Ltd report

Report Summary

• Maybank expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its current modest S\$NEER appreciation bias at the October meeting; no changes to the width or center of the band are anticipated.
• Singapore’s GDP growth is forecasted at 3.2% for 2025 and upgraded to 2.5% for 2026, supported by resilient services and a construction boom, which cushion the effects of a modest and short-lived export/manufacturing slowdown.
• Export contraction in 3Q is expected to be temporary, with electronics exports likely rebounding due to global AI-related investments and exemptions from new US tariffs for most major MNCs.
• Falling interest rates, rising credit growth, and a strong stock market are supporting financial, business, and real estate activities. Construction growth is projected to stay at or above 6% in 2025 and 2026.
• Inflation risks are seen rising in 2026 due to increased COE premiums, reduced rebates for electric and hybrid vehicles, higher carbon taxes, and wage hikes, with core inflation forecast at 1.1% and headline at 1.2% in 2026.
• Tourism and hospitality sectors are rebounding with higher visitor arrivals and near-record hotel occupancy rates, especially boosted by events like the F1 Grand Prix and Chinese Golden Week.
• Retail sales are picking up, aided by government voucher schemes and a buoyant asset market, but F&B services face challenges from rising costs and increased competition.
• The labor market remains resilient with low unemployment, but fresh graduates are finding it harder to secure white-collar jobs; the government has launched traineeship programs to help youth employment.
• Maybank forecasts the 3-month SORA rate to fall to 1.1% by end-2025 and to 0.7% by end-2026, reflecting expectations of further Fed rate cuts and continued safe-haven fund inflows.
• Overall, Singapore’s economy is expected to maintain respectable growth rates, underpinned by strong services, construction, and financial activity, while export and inflation cycles are carefully monitored for policy response.

Above is an excerpt from a report by Maybank Research Pte Ltd. Clients of Maybank Research Pte Ltd can be the first to access the full report from the Maybank website: https://www.maybank.com/investment-banking