CapAllianz Holdings: Major Oil Reserve Update & Outlook in Thailand – Is a Re-rating Coming?

CapAllianz Holdings Limited has released a comprehensive update on its oil and gas reserves in the Phetchabun Basin, Thailand, which may have significant implications for the company’s valuation and future prospects. As a 20% working interest holder in the onshore oil concessions, CapAllianz’s fortunes are closely tied to the performance and potential of these assets. The update, based on an independent assessment by Chapman Hydrogen and Petroleum Engineering Ltd., provides new estimates as at 30 June 2025 and details operational strategies amid ongoing global market volatility.

Key Highlights from the 2025 Oil & Gas Reserves Statement

• Updated Reserve Estimates: As of 30 June 2025, CapAllianz’s net attributable 2P (Proved + Probable) oil reserves stand at 2.23 million barrels (Mmbbl), representing an 8.52% decline from the previous year. 2P gas reserves are reported at 92.4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (Mboe), down 8.15% from the last update.
• Gross Reserves for the Concessions: On a gross basis, the Phetchabun Basin holds 11.16 Mmbbl in 2P oil reserves and 462 Mboe in 2P gas reserves.
• Economic Impact: The updated reserve estimates translate to a pre-tax discounted cumulative cash flow (before income tax) of USD 62.415 million, using a 10% annual discount rate.
• Reasons for Reserve Change: The reduction in reserves is attributed primarily to the normal decline in production from existing wells. Notably, this decline was partially offset by successful workover operations and identification of new prospects within the concession area.

Operational and Market Developments

• Oil Price Assumptions: The reserve valuation is based on an average 2025 oil price of US\$69.68 per barrel. While this reflects current independent technical assessments, the company cautions that oil prices remain highly volatile due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
• Production Strategy: The joint operators of the concessions are focused on improving production and operational efficiency via further workovers and optimization of existing wells. These initiatives are to be funded from the positive cash flows generated by ongoing oil sales and available credit facilities.
• Ongoing Uncertainty: The company notes that market conditions are uncertain and reserves, as well as associated valuations, may be subject to revision depending on future exploration, market prices, and operational results.

Implications for Shareholders & Potential Investors

These latest updates are potentially price sensitive for CapAllianz Holdings’ shareholders. A reduction in reserves and resource estimates can impact company valuation, future revenue expectations, and market sentiment. However, the company’s continued efforts in operational optimization and the identification of new prospects present potential upside, should these initiatives succeed in reversing the declining trend in reserves.

Shareholders should also be mindful of the high dependency on oil price assumptions and volatility in global markets, as these can materially affect both the value of reserves and the company’s financial performance. Investors are advised to closely monitor any further announcements or updates, as additional exploration or successful optimizations could trigger a positive re-rating of the stock.

Cautionary Statement

The company emphasizes that information in the report may be updated or amended following future exploration and operational studies. All investors are urged to exercise caution and consult their financial or tax advisors before making any trading decisions.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisors before making investment decisions. The author and publisher assume no responsibility for investment actions taken as a result of this report.

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