Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: September 17, 2025
Singapore’s Non-Oil Domestic Exports Plunge: Tariffs and Weak Demand Threaten Trade Outlook in 2025
Overview: Steep Decline in Singapore’s NODX Raises Red Flags
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) witnessed a significant downturn in August 2025, marking the sharpest drop since March 2024. The 11.3% year-on-year (yoy) contraction underscores deepening concerns about both electronics and non-electronics shipments, as well as the broader impact of escalating global trade tensions and tariffs risk. The latest numbers fell far below both market and in-house forecasts, signaling persistent headwinds for the city-state’s critical trade sector.
Key Highlights at a Glance
- NODX declined by 11.3% yoy in August 2025 (versus +4.7% in July 2025).
- Both electronics (-6.5% yoy) and non-electronics (-13% yoy) exports contracted sharply.
- US-bound exports suffered a plunge, driven by tariffs and policy uncertainty.
- Trade surplus narrowed to S\$4.9bn, down from S\$7.1bn in July 2025.
- 2025 NODX growth forecast retained at 3.3% yoy, above the official projection range.
Singapore’s Trade Snapshot: August 2025
| Metric |
Aug 2025 |
Jul 2025 |
Jun 2025 |
8M25 (YTD) |
| Total Trade (S\$ bn) |
108.9 |
– |
– |
– |
| Exports (S\$ bn) |
56.9 |
– |
– |
– |
| NODX YoY (%) |
-11.3 |
-4.7 |
12.9 |
1.6 |
| Trade Balance (S\$ bn) |
4.9 |
7.1 |
– |
– |
| Re-exports (S\$ bn) |
35.4 |
– |
– |
– |
| Imports (S\$ bn) |
52.0 |
– |
– |
– |
Electronics and Non-Electronics: Both Sectors Under Pressure
August’s NODX performance highlighted a broad-based downturn:
- Electronic exports fell 6.5% yoy, reversing the previous month’s 2.8% gain.
- Key drags: disk media (-28.1%), integrated circuits (-7.4%), PC parts (-36.9%).
- Non-electronics exports contracted 13% yoy, after a 6.6% contraction in July.
- Sharpest drops: specialised machinery (-29.1%), food preparations (-51.4%), petrochemicals (-23.2%).
The significant contraction in both electronics and non-electronics underscores vulnerability across the export landscape, exacerbated by external demand softness and sector-specific risk.
Country Breakdown: US Weakness Overshadows Asia’s Mixed Demand
Singapore’s exports to the US have now declined for four consecutive months, with a particularly steep 28.8% fall in August, following July’s 42.8% plunge. This is attributed to:
- US tariffs on Singapore-origin goods, with importers wary of further escalation.
- Specialised machinery exports to the US fell 71.3% yoy, disk media by 60% yoy.
President Trump’s signals of possible new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have further clouded the outlook, potentially prompting buyers to delay or reduce orders.
Meanwhile, exports to other key markets showed mixed results:
- Taiwan: +9.1% yoy (growth moderating from July).
- South Korea: +24.8% yoy (growth also moderating).
- EU: +28.9% yoy (pace of growth slowing).
- China: -21.5% yoy, highlighting a significant drag.
- Malaysia: -9.3% yoy; Indonesia: -39.6% yoy.
This split performance highlights the patchy nature of global demand and the risks of over-reliance on single markets.
Detailed Sectoral Performance: NODX Components in Focus
| Product Category |
Aug-25 YoY (%) |
Jul-25 YoY (%) |
Jun-25 YoY (%) |
8M25 YoY (%) |
% Share (Aug-25) |
| NODX (Total) |
-11.3 |
-4.7 |
12.9 |
1.6 |
100.0 |
| Electronic Products |
-6.5 |
2.7 |
8.0 |
6.5 |
28.4 |
| Integrated Circuits |
-7.4 |
8.0 |
17.5 |
7.9 |
11.8 |
| Disk Media Products |
-28.1 |
2.5 |
-0.9 |
6.2 |
3.0 |
| PC Parts |
-36.9 |
-34.2 |
-36.9 |
-28.7 |
0.5 |
| Specialised Machinery |
-29.1 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
| Food Preparations |
-51.4 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
| Petrochemicals |
-23.2 |
-23.4 |
-10.2 |
-11.8 |
7.1 |
Macroeconomic Projections: Regional Comparisons and Key Indicators
| Country / Indicator |
2023 |
2024 |
2025F |
2026F |
| Singapore Real GDP (% yoy) |
2.2 |
4.4 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
| Headline Inflation (% yoy, avg) |
4.8 |
2.4 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
| Unemployment Rate (% end-period) |
1.8 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) |
-0.5 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) |
17.7 |
17.5 |
16.4 |
14.2 |
Outlook: Tariffs Risk and Demand Headwinds to Linger
The August trade data reinforce expectations for a challenging second half of 2025. Enterprise Singapore is closely monitoring the evolving tariffs landscape, and may revise official forecasts in response to market shifts. The ongoing uncertainty, especially in key sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, means that downside risks remain prominent.
Despite these headwinds, CGS International maintains a 2025 NODX growth forecast of 3.3% yoy—slightly above the official upper bound. This cautious optimism reflects the potential for stabilization should trade tensions ease, but is tempered by the real risk of further US tariffs and soft global demand.
Conclusion: Navigating a Volatile Trade Environment
Singapore’s export sector is facing one of its most testing periods in recent years, with global policy uncertainty, tariffs, and sector-specific vulnerabilities combining to weigh on performance. Investors, analysts, and policy makers will need to stay vigilant as the trade outlook hinges on both macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical developments. For now, the message is clear: the road ahead remains clouded, and only a nimble, diversified approach will help weather the storm.
