OCBC Investment Research
16 September 2025
Jiangxi Copper & China’s Copper Producers: 2025 Investment Outlook, Financials & Peer Comparison
Introduction: OCBC’s Bullish Stance on Jiangxi Copper
OCBC Investment Research has reaffirmed its BUY rating on Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd – A (Ticker: 600362.SS), one of China’s largest copper producers, amidst a backdrop of favorable copper and gold prices, robust financial performance, and positive sector catalysts. This report provides an in-depth examination of Jiangxi Copper’s recent results, future outlook, and a comprehensive comparison with key industry peers—Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Yunnan Copper Co Ltd.
Jiangxi Copper: Riding the Wave of Commodity Upside
Standout Share Price Performance
Jiangxi Copper has delivered an impressive year-to-date (YTD) share price increase of ~44%, notably outpacing the MSCI China Index’s ~35% gain. Since OCBC’s previous report in August 2025, the stock has surged over 20%, driven by:
Favorable copper and gold price trends
Stronger-than-expected 1H25 earnings
Positive policy tailwinds from China’s “anti-involution” measures
First-Half 2025 Results: Beating Market Expectations
Jiangxi Copper’s 1H25 net profit reached CNY 4.2 billion, up 15% year-on-year. The 2Q25 alone saw net profit of CNY 2.2 billion, up 17% YoY and 14% QoQ. Key drivers included:
Higher gold and sulfuric acid prices
Resilient smelting profits, despite negative treatment and refining charges (TC/RC)
Greater earnings from mined copper and gold
Interim dividend surprise: CNY 0.4 per share (no payout in 1H24), a 31% payout ratio
Revenue and Profitability Trends
| Metric |
FY24 |
FY25E |
FY26E |
| Revenue (CNY b) |
519.2 |
558.7 |
566.7 |
| Gross Profit (CNY b) |
16.0 |
14.9 |
15.3 |
| Net Profit (CNY b) |
6.9 |
7.5 |
8.5 |
| EPS (CNY) |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
| Dividend per Share (CNY) |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
| Gross Margin |
3.1% |
2.7% |
2.7% |
| Net Margin |
1.3% |
1.4% |
1.5% |
| Net Gearing |
58.8% |
43.7% |
37.8% |
| ROE |
8.9% |
9.1% |
9.5% |
Investment Thesis: Why Jiangxi Copper Stands Out
Strategic Advantages
Domestic Focus: Major assets in China, less exposed to geopolitical risks.
Diversification: Copper, gold, sulfuric acid, and other byproducts add earnings stability.
Demand Drivers: Incremental demand from China’s grid investment and renewable energy sectors.
Policy Support: “Anti-involution” measures in China to boost sector profitability.
Catalyst Watch
Higher-than-expected copper prices
Lower operating costs
Stricter enforcement of scrap copper bans (could lift TC/RC)
Key Risks
Sensitivity to commodity price swings
Slowdown in grid/housing investment
Operational risks: mining/smelting cost spikes, ore grade drops
Valuation: Peer Comparison and Multiples
OCBC has raised Jiangxi Copper’s fair value estimate from CNY 31.00 to CNY 44.10, reflecting stronger earnings and commodity price upgrades. Below is a detailed peer comparison:
| Company |
P/E (FY25E) |
P/E (FY26E) |
P/B (FY25E) |
P/B (FY26E) |
EV/EBITDA (FY25E) |
EV/EBITDA (FY26E) |
Dividend Yield (FY25E) |
Dividend Yield (FY26E) |
ROE (FY25E) |
ROE (FY26E) |
| Jiangxi Copper (600362.SS) |
14.2 |
14.4 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
12.8 |
13.3 |
2.4% |
2.5% |
8.8% |
8.1% |
| Tongling Nonferrous (000630.SZ) |
15.5 |
10.8 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
8.4 |
7.7 |
2.1% |
3.0% |
10.7% |
13.9% |
| Yunnan Copper (000878.SZ) |
29.3 |
13.1 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
N.A. |
N.A. |
1.3% |
3.1% |
7.3% |
14.7% |
Jiangxi Copper: Company Profile and Revenue Breakdown
Overview
Stock Listings: Hong Kong (1997), Shanghai (2002)
Main Activities: Copper mining, smelting & refining, copper product processing
Key Products: Copper cathode, wire, rod, gold, silver, sulfuric acid, pyrite concentrate
Major Asset: Dexin Copper Mine (China’s largest domestic copper mine)
Main End-Markets: Electricity grid, appliances, machinery, new energy vehicles (NEVs)
Controlling Shareholder: Jiangxi Provincial SASAC
FY24 Revenue Breakdown
| By Region |
% |
By Segment |
% |
| Mainland China |
87.7% |
Copper Cathodes |
51.7% |
| Hong Kong |
6.2% |
Copper Rods |
22.9% |
| Others |
6.1% |
Copper Concentrate |
5.1% |
|
|
Gold |
12.7% |
|
|
Others |
7.6% |
Financial Performance: Five-Year Income Statement Highlights
| Metric (CNY millions) |
FY2020 |
FY2021 |
FY2022 |
FY2023 |
FY2024 |
| Revenue |
317,756.5 |
441,614.4 |
478,392.8 |
520,338.5 |
519,248.2 |
| Gross Profit |
10,069.4 |
16,191.6 |
12,056.4 |
12,016.3 |
16,045.4 |
| Net Profit |
2,227.7 |
5,772.5 |
6,001.5 |
6,745.8 |
6,901.0 |
| EPS (CNY) |
0.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (%) |
15.92 |
28.73 |
28.17 |
30.76 |
35.91 |
| ROE (%) |
3.95 |
8.90 |
8.38 |
9.57 |
9.49 |
Peer Review: Tongling Nonferrous Metals & Yunnan Copper
Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630.SZ)
P/E: 15.5 (FY25E), 10.8 (FY26E)
P/B: 1.6 (FY25E), 1.5 (FY26E)
EV/EBITDA: 8.4 (FY25E), 7.7 (FY26E)
Dividend Yield: 2.1% (FY25E), 3.0% (FY26E)
ROE: 10.7% (FY25E), 13.9% (FY26E)
Yunnan Copper Co Ltd (000878.SZ)
P/E: 29.3 (FY25E), 13.1 (FY26E)
P/B: 2.1 (FY25E), 1.9 (FY26E)
Dividend Yield: 1.3% (FY25E), 3.1% (FY26E)
ROE: 7.3% (FY25E), 14.7% (FY26E)
EV/EBITDA: Not available
Investment Ratings and Outlook
OCBC’s BUY rating reflects expected total returns (excluding dividends) above 10% from current levels, with Jiangxi Copper’s fair value set at CNY 44.10.
The company’s robust YTD performance, strong dividend growth, and positive sector fundamentals reinforce OCBC’s bullish view.
The research also provides clear risk disclosures and recommends investors seek professional advice to ensure suitability.
Conclusion: Strong Fundamentals and Sector Leadership
Jiangxi Copper stands out for its strong financials, favorable industry position, and ongoing policy support in China. Its consistent dividend growth, resilient earnings, and diversified product mix make it a compelling play for investors targeting the copper and gold theme in Asia’s largest economy. The peer review also highlights competitive strengths and valuation metrics, providing a comprehensive guide for sector allocation decisions in 2025.
