OCBC Investment Research
Date of Report: 16 September 2025
China Longyuan Power: Riding the Wind of Renewable Energy Growth – In-Depth Analysis & 2025 Outlook
China Longyuan Power: Market Leader in China’s Wind Energy Transformation
China Longyuan Power stands as China’s largest and most established wind farm operator, enjoying first-mover advantages that have enabled it to secure prime wind farm locations and optimize utilization rates since its pioneering days in the late 1980s. With its robust presence and ongoing capacity expansion, Longyuan Power is at the forefront of China’s transition to carbon neutrality, driven by aggressive renewable energy development policies.
Strong Generation Growth & Major Renewable Expansion in 2025
- August 2025 Power Generation: Total output reached 5.3 million MWh, a 5.6% year-on-year increase.
- Wind Power: Up 22.4% YoY to 3.9 million MWh.
- Solar Power: Surged 74.4% YoY to 1.4 million MWh.
- Coal-Fired Output: Absent in August due to the disposal of coal-fired assets in 2H24; excluding coal, total generation rose an impressive 33.0% YoY.
- Year-to-Date (as of August 31, 2025): Cumulative power generation stood at 51.3 million MWh, essentially flat YoY, but up 15.5% YoY when excluding coal output.
- Renewable Capacity Additions: 2GW of new renewable capacity added in 1H25, achieving 40% of its annual 5GW target.
Financial Performance: Resilient Revenue and Profitable Margins
Despite facing lower tariffs and rising operating costs, Longyuan Power delivered solid financial results, underscoring its operational resilience and ability to capitalize on renewable growth.
| Metric |
FY24 |
FY25E |
FY26E |
| Revenue (CNY m) |
31,370 |
33,542 |
35,311 |
| EBIT (CNY m) |
12,615 |
13,804 |
13,995 |
| Net Profit (CNY m) |
6,379 |
6,778 |
6,871 |
| EPS (CNY) |
0.76 |
0.81 |
0.82 |
| Dividend per Share (CNY) |
0.23 |
0.24 |
0.25 |
| EBIT Margin (%) |
40.2 |
41.2 |
39.6 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) |
20.3 |
20.2 |
19.5 |
| Dividend Yield (%) |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
First-Ever Interim Dividend & Subsidy Updates
- Interim Dividend: Announced first-ever cash dividend of CNY 0.1 per share for 1H25.
- Renewable Subsidies: Received CNY 250 million in 1H25; uncollected tariff subsidies totaled CNY 47 billion at end-1H25. Historically, more subsidies are collected in 2H than 1H.
- Revenue: 1H25 revenue reached CNY 15.7 billion, up 3.1% YoY.
- Net Profit: 1H25 net profit declined 14.4% YoY to CNY 3.5 billion due to lower tariffs and higher expenses, partially offset by 12.7% YoY growth in overall power generation.
Valuation & Peer Comparison: How Longyuan Stacks Up
| Company |
P/E (FY25E) |
P/E (FY26E) |
P/B (FY25E) |
P/B (FY26E) |
EV/EBITDA (FY25E) |
EV/EBITDA (FY26E) |
Div Yield (%) (FY25E) |
Div Yield (%) (FY26E) |
ROE (%) (FY25E) |
ROE (%) (FY26E) |
| China Longyuan Power Group (001289.SZ) |
21.7 |
20.1 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
10.5 |
9.7 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
8.7 |
9.0 |
| China Datang Corp Renewable Power (1798.HK) |
7.7 |
6.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
7.7 |
7.0 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
8.6 |
9.7 |
| Goldwind Science & Technology (2208.HK) |
13.8 |
10.7 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
11.0 |
9.3 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
7.6 |
9.1 |
| Ming Yang Smart Energy (601615.SH) |
15.6 |
11.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
10.8 |
8.5 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
6.9 |
8.6 |
ESG Insights: Sustainable Progress and Industry Positioning
- Carbon Emissions: While the sector is high-risk for emissions, 72% of Longyuan’s operations are in less carbon-intensive business lines compared to peers.
- ESG Scores: Company scores 4/10 for carbon emissions versus peers, but a perfect 10/10 for greenhouse gas mitigation efforts.
- Governance & Human Capital: Below industry average in governance and human capital development, but outperforms in opportunities in renewables and carbon management.
Company Overview: History, Structure, and Segmental Performance
Founded in 1993, China Longyuan Power has evolved into a true energy conglomerate, now part of CHN Energy. The company operates across 32 provinces in China and has expanded internationally, including South Africa. Its diversified portfolio spans wind, solar, biomass, tidal, geothermal, and coal power projects.
| Segment |
FY24 Revenue (%) |
FY24 Operating Income (%) |
| Wind Power |
75.0 |
92.8 |
| Coal Power |
14.9 |
1.9 |
| Solar Power |
6.4 |
3.9 |
| Others |
3.7 |
1.4 |
Dividend history illustrates consistent payout growth, moving from CNY 0.12 in 2020 to CNY 0.23 in 2024.
Comprehensive Financials: Income Statement & Key Ratios
| Metric |
FY2020 |
FY2021 |
FY2022 |
FY2023 |
FY2024 |
| Revenue (CNY m) |
28,667 |
39,872 |
39,862 |
29,631 |
31,370 |
| Operating Income (CNY m) |
10,056 |
14,174 |
11,903 |
11,571 |
12,615 |
| Net Profit (CNY m) |
5,025 |
7,433 |
5,131 |
6,411 |
6,425 |
| EPS (CNY) |
0.6 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
| Operating Margin (%) |
35.08 |
35.55 |
29.86 |
39.05 |
40.21 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) |
16.49 |
18.00 |
12.30 |
20.26 |
18.16 |
| Return on Equity (%) |
8.55 |
11.41 |
7.18 |
8.55 |
7.87 |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (%) |
20.35 |
15.69 |
19.38 |
29.79 |
30.67 |
Investment Thesis: Growth Drivers, Risks, and Catalysts
- Growth Drivers:
- Sustained capacity additions in renewables
- Leading wind farm utilization rates
- Support from China’s carbon neutrality policies
- Potential Catalysts:
- Higher-than-expected tariffs and utilization rates
- Significant release of government subsidy payments
- Asset injection from parent company at favorable prices
- Risks:
- Lower tariffs or utilization rates
- High-cost asset injections from parent
- Difficulties in collecting subsidy payments
Broker Recommendation & Rating
- Broker: OCBC Investment Research
- Rating: BUY
- Fair Value: CNY 23.00 (raised from previous CNY 19.80)
- Market Cap: USD 15.4 billion
- Shares Outstanding: 8,360 million
- Free Float: 41%
- Top Shareholder: CHNENERGY Investment (91.3%)
Conclusion: China Longyuan Power – A Robust Play on China’s Clean Energy Future
With its dominant position, rapid renewable expansion, and resilient financials, China Longyuan Power is well-placed to benefit from China’s ongoing energy transition. Investors should watch for progress in subsidy collections and tariff developments, while recognizing the solid fundamentals and growth trajectory affirmed by OCBC Investment Research’s BUY rating.
The company’s disciplined capital deployment, expanding renewable portfolio, and steady margin performance make it a compelling choice for those seeking exposure to China’s clean energy revolution and sustainable returns.
