Maybank Investment Bank Berhad
Date of Report: September 10, 2025

Malaysia Quants Monitor: Factor Strategies, Sector Movers, and Tactical Stock Picks for Investors

Overview: Market Performance and Quantitative Factor Insights

The Malaysian equity market delivered a modest performance during the week of September 1–5, 2025. The FBM KLCI rose by 3 points to close at 1,578.15 during a holiday-shortened trading period. Notably, “Quality” and “Value” investment styles outperformed other factors, continuing their prevailing trend. Among the top-performing MSCI Malaysia sectors were Consumer Discretionary (+1.1%) and Consumer Staples (+0.9%), both highlighting resilience and opportunity for tactical investors. Interestingly, these sectors—along with Healthcare—remain the only three that have posted negative returns over the last six months.

Quantitative Factor Glossary: Understanding Market Drivers

Quantitative investing strategies continue to shape market perspectives. The following factors are key to portfolio construction and tactical allocations:

• Value: Assessed by earnings yield, book value yield, free cash flow yield, and EBIT/EV multiple.
• Momentum: Based on earnings revisions, long-term price momentum, and short-term price reversal.
• Growth: Focused on short- and long-term historical growth, forward earnings growth, EBIT margin growth, and analyst sentiment.
• Quality: Measured by return on equity, return on invested capital, debt to equity, earnings certainty, and dividend yield.
• Low Volatility: Determined by return volatility (country and sector neutral) and beta.

MSCI Malaysia Sector Performance: Weekly Leaders and Laggards

Highlighted Stocks: In-Depth Analysis and Tactical Recommendations

Heineken Malaysia Berhad (HEIM)

Recommendation: BUY
Target Price: MYR 31
Closing Price (as of report): MYR 20.52
YTD Performance: -15%

• Heineken’s share price has declined sharply since its peak in May 2025, culminating in a “death cross” as the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA—a classic bearish technical signal.
• Despite the downtrend, the RSI has dipped into oversold territory, prompting a tentative technical rebound. However, the recovery remains fragile, with price trading below all major moving averages.
• Resistance is identified at MYR 21.80; a breakout above this level, particularly above the 21-day EMA, would signal renewed buyer interest and a potential early entry opportunity.
• Recent price adjustments (1 Aug and 1 Sep) for both on-trade and off-trade channels aim to support margins, with seasonal tailwinds expected as consumer spending typically increases ahead of Q4 festive periods.
• The 15% YTD selloff may be overdone, especially as post-festive sales normalize.

• Heineken stands out for its high scores in Quality and Low Volatility factors on a sector-neutral basis.

DXN Holdings Berhad

Recommendation: BUY
Target Price: MYR 0.69
YTD Performance: -4%

• DXN Holdings has faced a 4% YTD decline, primarily due to adverse foreign exchange fluctuations impacting its Malaysian Ringgit sales. Approximately 97% of its revenue is generated outside Malaysia, amplifying FX sensitivity.
• Forecasts for FY26-28E have been revised downward by 15-18%, reflecting lower sales run rates in 1QFY26 and higher assumed capex of MYR 100 million per annum.
• Mitigating factors include ongoing expansion into new markets, regular annual product price adjustments (estimated at 5%-10%), and a move to peg product average selling prices (ASPs) to the US dollar—strategies expected to buffer further downside risks.

Momentum Tracker: Market Leaders and Laggards

Maybank’s quant desk continuously ranks the best and worst performing stocks on Bursa Malaysia based on momentum criteria, including one-month and twelve-month price momentum and consensus earnings estimate revisions. The weekly change in these metrics provides a dynamic scoreboard for investors seeking to capitalize on shifts in market sentiment.

Technical Analysis Spotlight: Heineken Malaysia (HEIM)

• HEIM’s technicals indicate a sharp downtrend since May, highlighted by the 50-day SMA crossing below the 200-day SMA (“death cross”).
• RSI levels have entered oversold territory, prompting a technical rebound, though the price remains below all major moving averages.
• A decisive move above MYR 21.80 and the 21-day EMA would be an early indicator that buyers are regaining control and could trigger further upside momentum.

Research and Analyst Coverage: Comprehensive Sector Expertise

Maybank Investment Bank Berhad’s research team covers a broad range of sectors and regional markets, offering in-depth expertise in:

• Economics, FX, Strategy, and Fixed Income
• Portfolio Strategy and Sustainability Research
• Equity Research across Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand
• Specialist coverage of Banking & Finance, Insurance, Plantations, Gaming, Construction, Aviation, Non-Bank Financials, Utilities, Telcos, Property, Glove, Consumer Staples & Discretionary, Renewable Energy, REITs, Ports, Automotive, Oil & Gas, Petrochemicals, Healthcare, Media, Technology, and Retail Research

Key contacts and heads of research are listed for each region and specialization, ensuring that investors have access to sector-specific insights and timely updates.

Disclosures, Disclaimers, and Analyst Certification

Maybank Investment Bank Berhad emphasizes the following:

• Research is for general information and should not be construed as specific investment advice.
• Past performance is not indicative of future returns, and all investment strategies carry risk.
• Maybank and its affiliates may hold positions or have business relationships with companies covered in this report.
• Analysts certify independence of their views, with no compensation tied to recommendations.
• Legal and regulatory disclaimers apply across Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, the UK, and the US.

Definition of Ratings

• BUY: Expected return above 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends).
• HOLD: Expected return between 0% and 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends).
• SELL: Expected return below 0% in the next 12 months (including dividends).

Contact Information: Global Reach and Local Expertise

Maybank Investment Bank Berhad maintains a robust presence across key Asian and global financial centers. Offices are located in Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, London, Hong Kong, Jakarta, Mumbai, Manila, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City, with dedicated sales and research teams available to support investors and clients.

Conclusion: Tactical Opportunities Amid Sector Rotation

The Malaysian equity market is exhibiting nuanced sector rotation, with Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples showing near-term resilience. Heineken Malaysia and DXN Holdings emerge as high-conviction tactical plays, supported by strong quantitative scores in Quality and Low Volatility. While both face headwinds—Heineken from post-festive normalization and DXN from FX volatility—strategic price adjustments, market expansion, and disciplined management are expected to support recovery and buffer downside risks. Investors are encouraged to monitor technical signals and maintain a disciplined, factor-based approach as market conditions evolve.