UOB Kay Hian Private Wealth Management
Date of Report: September 10, 2025

Global Markets Hit Highs Amid Fed Rate Speculation, AI Partnerships, and Major M&A: Comprehensive Analysis & Key Stock Picks

Market Overview: Record Highs and Shifting Economic Signals

Global equity markets surged to new highs, buoyed by revised US employment data that intensified expectations for accelerated Federal Reserve rate cuts. The S&P 500 climbed 0.27% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.37%, both reaching record levels. A significant downward revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that US job growth from April 2024 to March 2025 was over 900,000 lower than previously estimated—marking the largest adjustment on record. JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon flagged this as a sign of potential economic weakness, while market leaders called for a shift in Fed policy stance.
Elsewhere, energy stocks rose on geopolitical tensions, and key indices across Asia and Europe posted mixed results.

Key Indices & Commodities Performance

Major US Market Movers: Oracle Leads the Charge, AI Partnerships in Focus

Oracle (ORCL)
Oracle shares soared an astonishing 26.5% in after-hours trading, positioning the stock to potentially surpass its all-time high. The tech giant reported a massive increase in fiscal 1Q bookings, jumping to $455 billion from $138 billion sequentially. Cloud infrastructure revenue guidance was raised to $18 billion for the year (+77% YoY), with projections reaching $144 billion by FY2030—beating consensus estimates. Oracle’s CEO announced major cloud contracts with OpenAI, Meta, and Nvidia, fueling optimism for sustained growth.
Meta Platforms (META)
Meta signed a multi-year, $100 million+ contract with AI image startup Black Forest Labs, reinforcing its commitment to expand AI capabilities, especially in the rapidly growing AI image and video generation space. Meta remains a core recommendation, with its stock climbing 1.78%.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia shares gained 1.46%, driven by news of Oracle’s partnership and anticipation over pending US legislation. The Senate is pushing a bill to restrict exports of advanced AI chips to China, requiring firms like Nvidia to prioritize US buyers. Nvidia is also set to launch its Rubin CPX product at the end of 2026, targeting high-demand AI applications.
Microsoft (MSFT) & Nebius (NBIS)
Nebius shares skyrocketed 49.42% after announcing a $17.4 billion AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft, providing GPU capacity over five years from a new New Jersey data center. Microsoft, a core recommendation, is leveraging this partnership to further cement its AI leadership.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple shares declined 1.48% following the launch of new iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods models. The iPhone 17 lineup, featuring a slimmer design and enhanced durability/camera features, failed to surprise analysts, contributing to the share price dip.
UnitedHealth (UNH)
UnitedHealth shares surged 8.64% after a filing revealed that 78% of its Medicare Advantage members will be in plans rated four stars or higher for 2027. UnitedHealth is now the fourth-largest holding in the Healthcare ETF (XLV), which itself rose 0.54% and is rated a Trading Buy.
Walmart (WMT) & Amazon (AMZN)
Walmart announced its entry into Africa by year-end, leveraging its Massmart subsidiary to take on local and international rivals such as Shoprite, Woolworths, Pick n Pay, Amazon, and Takealot. Amazon shares rose 1.02% as it remains a leading force in the region’s e-commerce market.
Teck Resources (TECK) & Anglo American (AAL)
Teck Resources will be acquired by Anglo American in a deal worth over $50 billion, creating a top-tier global copper producer. Anglo shareholders will hold the majority stake and receive a special dividend; the merger is expected to close within 12-18 months.
Gemini
Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini set its IPO price range at $24–26 per share ahead of its Nasdaq debut, targeting a $3.08 billion valuation and planning to raise $433.3 million—reflecting strong investor demand.

Asia-Pacific Highlights: Currency Moves, Green Tech Expansion & Earnings Updates

China & Hong Kong
The yuan hit a 10-month high against the US dollar, buoyed by a weaker dollar and investor anticipation of revised US job data. Tencent (0700.HK) is considering its first public debt issue in four years via offshore yuan bonds, leveraging a record $46.2 billion in corporate issuance this year. Tencent remains a core recommendation.
CATL (3750.HK, 300750 CH)
CATL’s Yichun lithium mine is set to resume operations after a temporary halt due to license expiry. The pause had briefly sent lithium prices and miner stocks surging, but prices retreated following news of another miner securing a license, easing supply fears.
Taiwan
Taiwan’s exports hit a record $58.5 billion in August, up 34.1% YoY—beating the 25% median forecast. US-bound shipments set new highs, and the island’s trade surplus with the US is expected to reach $100 billion for the year.
China’s Green Tech Firms
Chinese green tech companies have pledged over $210 billion in overseas factory investments since 2022, targeting new markets, raw material sources, and tariff avoidance. Indonesia, with its nickel-rich battery materials and solar projects, has been a key beneficiary.

ASEAN & Regional Company Insights

Singapore Banking Sector: DBS & OCBC
Singapore’s position as a safe haven has attracted liquidity inflows, strengthening the Singapore dollar but compressing domestic interest rates—a trend likely to persist and continue weighing on banks’ net interest margins (NIM). 2026 earnings forecasts for DBS and OCBC were cut by 1.4% and 2.2% respectively, with the risk-free rate eased from 2.5% to 2.2%. The sector outlook is downgraded to MARKET WEIGHT. OCBC is rated BUY (Target: S$20.40), while DBS is HOLD (Target: S$54.40).
Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (KORE SP)
KORE is gradually restoring its payout ratio amid positive leasing momentum in Austin and Denver. Occupancy is expected to slip to 86-88% by end-2025 due to known vacates. The payout ratio is projected at 25% in 2026, rising to a stabilized 70% by 2029. KORE trades at a 4.0% yield for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027, with a low P/NAV of 0.36x. Rating: BUY (Target: US$0.26).
Gamuda (GAM MK)
Gamuda has outperformed since 2024, driven by a robust orderbook and flagship projects in infrastructure, renewables, and data centers. However, the high orderbook will take time to translate into exponential earnings for FY26-28. After a strong rally, the stock is now rated HOLD (Target: RM5.75).
IOI Corporation (IOI MK)
IOI’s FY26 earnings are expected to be anchored by upstream production growth, though the downstream outlook remains subdued. Maintain HOLD (Target: RM3.70).
COM7 (COM7 TB)
COM7’s share price has rallied impressively and now approaches its target price. Apple products are expected to remain the key driver, with 3Q25 earnings set to improve YoY. However, share prices typically dip after an iPhone launch. Downgrade to HOLD (Target: Bt29.50).

EMEA & Global Developments

ASML & Mistral AI
ASML invested €1.3 billion ($1.5 billion) in French AI startup Mistral AI, becoming its largest shareholder with an 11% stake after Mistral’s €1.7 billion funding round.
European Markets & France
European shares were steady, with the STOXX 600 up 0.1%. Political instability in France, marked by the ouster of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, was partially offset by positive merger activity. France’s wine production is expected to rebound by 3% in 2025 to 37.4 million hectolitres, but remains 13% below the five-year average.

Key Calendar Events

• 14th NPCSC: 17th Session (Sep 8–12)
• SEMICON Taiwan (Sep 10–12)
• Supreme Court reviews Trump’s semiconductor tariffs (Sep 10)
• ECB Rate Decision, US CPI, and other data releases (Sep 11)
• China Vehicle Sales, M2 Money Supply, and more (Sep 12)

Hong Kong IPO Calendar

Conclusion: Strategic Opportunities Amid Shifting Macro and Sector Trends

Markets are demonstrating resilience as investors weigh economic data revisions, major M&A activity, and the relentless advance of AI and cloud technology. Global companies are forging new partnerships and expanding internationally, while regional players in Asia adapt to currency shifts and new structural challenges. UOB Kay Hian’s core recommendations—such as Nvidia, Meta, Tencent, Microsoft, Oracle, XLE, and select regional banks and REITs—are positioned for both tactical and long-term opportunities as global markets navigate a complex macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape.