Broker: Maybank Investment Bank Berhad
Date of Report: September 1, 2025
CIMB Group Holdings: In-Depth Analysis of 2Q25 Results, Outlook, and Key Metrics for Investors
Executive Summary: CIMB Group’s 1H25 Results and Investment Perspective
CIMB Group Holdings Berhad delivered its 2Q25 financial results within expectations, maintaining steady performance amid regional volatility. With its distinctive ASEAN footprint, CIMB’s overseas operations contribute a substantial 40% to pretax profit, positioning the group as more internationally exposed than its Malaysia-centric peers. Maybank Investment Bank Berhad continues to rate CIMB as HOLD, with a Target Price (TP) of MYR7.60, based on FY25E PBV of 1.1x, COE of 10.1%, growth of 4%, and ROE of 10.9%.
Financial Performance: Headline Figures and Dividend Policy
CIMB reported a 2Q25 net profit of MYR1.89 billion, marking a 4% decline year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). For 1H25, net profit reached MYR3.86 billion, just 1% lower YoY and representing 50% of the full-year forecast. NIM remained stable, but loan growth lagged at 1% YoY (+3.6% on constant currency). The interim dividend per share (DPS) was declared at 19.8 sen, with a payout ratio of 55.5%. The group’s dividend payout policy remains at 40-60%, with 55% expected for FY25.
| Metric |
2Q25 |
1Q25 |
2Q24 |
6M25 |
6M24 |
YoY Change |
QoQ Change |
| Net Profit (MYR m) |
1,888.7 |
1,973.4 |
1,961.0 |
3,862.1 |
3,897.3 |
-0.9% |
-4.3% |
| Operating Income (MYR m) |
5,601.8 |
5,499.0 |
5,602.5 |
11,100.8 |
11,231.5 |
-1.2% |
+1.9% |
| Net Interest Income (MYR m) |
2,788.0 |
2,816.6 |
2,812.8 |
5,604.6 |
5,676.3 |
-1.3% |
-1.0% |
| DPS (sen) |
19.8 |
– |
27.0 |
19.8 |
27.0 |
-26.7% |
– |
Loan and Deposit Growth: Regional Dynamics
- Total loans grew 1% YoY, or 3.6% YoY on constant currency basis, with Malaysia up 2.6%, Indonesia up 8.8%, Singapore up 9%, and Thailand down 2.6%.
- Group deposits rose 2.2% YoY (4.9% YoY constant currency). CASA (current and savings accounts) outpaced at 10% YoY (13.7% constant currency), notably in Singapore (+17.1%), Thailand (+39.6%), Malaysia (+8.5%), and Indonesia (+10.9%).
- CASA ratio improved to 44.0% (Jun 2025), and loan/deposit ratio stood at 88.0%.
Net Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income Trends
- Group NIM slipped marginally by 1bp QoQ to 2.15%. Malaysia’s NIM rose 1bp to 1.80% QoQ, Singapore up 16bps to 1.45%, while Indonesia and Thailand saw declines of 6bps and 35bps, respectively.
- Year-to-date, group NIM contracted 5bps to 2.16% (1H25 vs 2.21% in FY24).
- Non-interest income (NOII) for 1H25 declined 3.7% YoY, with fee income down 5% and trading/FX income down 2.5%.
Operating Expenses: Cost Management and Efficiency
- Overhead costs were tightly controlled, increasing just 0.1% YoY.
- Personnel costs declined 0.7% YoY; establishment and admin costs fell 8.3% and 5.9%, respectively.
- Marketing expenses surged 58.2% YoY due to campaigns and partnerships; technology spend grew 0.6% YoY.
- The cost/income ratio (CIR) rose to 46.2% in 1H25 from 45.6% in 1H24, with negative JAWS as income declined.
Asset Quality, Provisions, and Capital Ratios
- Gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio marginally improved to 2.1% (Jun 2025).
- Credit cost increased to 32bps in 2Q25 (from 26bps in 1Q25), averaging 29bps for 1H25, aligning with management’s guidance of 25-35bps.
- Loan loss coverage reached 100.7% with MYR600m macro overlays (MYR500m in 2Q25, MYR100m in 1Q25).
- The group’s CET1 ratio was 14.7%, and total capital ratio stood at 18.3% as of June 2025.
Outlook and Revised Guidance for FY25-FY27
- FY25 loan growth estimate revised to 3.5% (from 4.5%), NIM compression now expected at -7bps (from -5bps).
- CIR forecast updated to 47.3%, credit cost to 33bps.
- FY26/27 net profit forecasts adjusted marginally by +1%/-1%.
- Dividend payout policy sustained at 40-60% (estimate 55% for FY25).
Company Profile and Shareholder Structure
- CIMB Group Holdings is a leading ASEAN universal bank, offering consumer and investment banking, with a major stake in PT CIMB Niaga.
- Overseas earnings contribute 40% to group pretax profit.
- Major shareholders include Khazanah Nasional (21.5%), Employees Provident Fund (16.5%), and Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (6.5%).
Share Price Performance and Valuation Benchmarks
- Share price as of September 1, 2025: MYR7.43; 12-month TP: MYR7.60.
- 52-week high/low: MYR8.49/MYR6.35.
- Market capitalization: MYR79.9B (USD18.9B); Free float: 27.8%.
| Metric |
FY23A |
FY24A |
FY25E |
FY26E |
FY27E |
| Operating Income (MYR m) |
21,014 |
22,301 |
22,771 |
23,683 |
24,737 |
| Core Net Profit (MYR m) |
6,981 |
7,728 |
7,709 |
8,130 |
8,596 |
| Core EPS (MYR) |
0.65 |
0.72 |
0.72 |
0.76 |
0.80 |
| Net DPS (MYR) |
0.43 |
0.47 |
0.40 |
0.42 |
0.44 |
| Core P/E (x) |
8.9 |
11.4 |
10.3 |
9.8 |
9.3 |
| Net Dividend Yield (%) |
7.4 |
5.7 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
| Book Value (MYR) |
6.41 |
6.45 |
6.78 |
7.12 |
7.48 |
| ROAE (%) |
10.7 |
11.2 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
11.0 |
Key Ratios and Balance Sheet Highlights
| Growth (%) |
FY23A |
FY24A |
FY25E |
FY26E |
FY27E |
| Net Interest Income |
-4.7 |
2.5 |
-2.9 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
| Non-Interest Income |
34.8 |
9.3 |
6.8 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
| Pre-Provision Profit |
6.3 |
6.6 |
1.1 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
| Gross Loans |
8.3 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
| Customer Deposits |
8.0 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
| Total Assets |
10.0 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
Risk Factors and Regional Exposure
- CIMB’s position as Malaysia’s second-largest bank means its performance is tied to domestic economic conditions.
- Regional exposures in Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore add volatility, with interest rate movements and currency fluctuations impacting margins and earnings translation.
- Recent declines in Indonesia’s interest rates and a weakening IDR are highlighted as near-term risks.
Valuation Trends and Historical Recommendations
- One-year forward rolling PER averages 12.0x (mean), with -1sd at 9.1x and +1sd at 14.8x.
- One-year forward rolling P/BV averages 1.3x, ranging from 0.8x (-1sd) to 1.8x (+1sd).
- Historical recommendations show a mix of HOLD and BUY ratings over the past three years, with the latest rating as HOLD at RM7.6.
Contact Information
CIMB Group Holdings and Maybank Investment Bank Berhad maintain a regional presence across Malaysia, Singapore, London, Hong Kong, Indonesia, India, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, offering comprehensive research and investment banking services.
Conclusion: Investment Takeaways for CIMB Group Holdings
CIMB’s 2Q25 and 1H25 performance underscores its resilience and disciplined cost management amid challenging regional conditions. While loan growth and NIM remain under pressure, strong capital ratios and prudent provisioning provide a buffer for future volatility. The group’s diversified operations, attractive dividend policy, and consistent capital management position it as a stable HOLD for investors seeking exposure to ASEAN banking growth with a balanced risk profile.
