OCBC Investment Research
Date of Report: 28 August 2025
Global Markets Pulse: Tech Wobbles, Dividend Plays Shine, and Singapore’s Equity Giants in Focus

United States: Tech Earnings Jolt Rally as AI Enthusiasm Faces Reality Check

The US equity markets soared to record highs, only to pull back after Nvidia’s much-anticipated earnings failed to match the most bullish forecasts. As Nvidia projected US$54 billion in sales for the current quarter—below the highest market expectations—investors grew nervous about a possible slowdown in the AI-driven tech rally. With Nvidia comprising roughly 8% of the S&P 500, its performance weighed heavily on the index and rippled through the entire technology sector.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.24% to a new record before the Nvidia announcement.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.21%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 147.16 points (+0.32%).
Energy stocks rallied alongside a 1.4% jump in WTI crude oil prices, closing at $64.15 per barrel.
Other notable movers included MongoDB, which surged 38% after stellar results and a raised full-year outlook, Okta (+1% after beating forecasts), and Photronics (+7.6% on strong earnings). Meanwhile, Nvidia’s drop extended after hours, with shares falling as much as 5% despite CEO Jensen Huang reaffirming robust AI infrastructure demand and a forecast of US$3–4 trillion in AI spending by 2030. The company also announced a share buyback program.
Bond yields softened, with the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.62% and the 10-year at 4.24%. Mortgage applications slipped 0.5% due to declining refinancing demand, though home purchase applications edged up.

Asia: Tech Anxiety and Market Headwinds

Asia-Pacific markets reflected global tech jitters, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down as much as 1.1%. Tech-heavy markets in Taiwan and South Korea braced for spillover from Nvidia’s disappointment, as momentum in AI-related trades appeared to be waning.

Singapore Market Overview: Flat Performance, Low Turnover

Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) closed flat, with turnover down 30% and volume sliding 16.7%. Gainers (213) lagged behind losers (304), reflecting cautious sentiment. Key sector indices were mixed, with financials nudging up 0.1% and REITs slipping 0.1%.

World Indices and FX & Commodities – Key Movements

FX & Commodities Highlights

USDSGD: 1.2862 (-0.1%)
USDJPY: 147.42 (unchanged)
USDCNY: 7.152 (unchanged)
WTI Crude: USD 64.15/bbl (+1.4%)
Brent: USD 68.05/bbl (+1.2%)
Gold: USD 3,397.4/oz (+0.1%)
Silver: USD 38.60/oz (unchanged)

Bumitama Agri Ltd (BAL SP): A Bountiful Harvest but Limited Upside

Bumitama Agri Ltd’s share price has soared 33% since the previous update on 12 August, surpassing the initial fair value estimate. The company’s strong 1H25 earnings momentum, coupled with a hefty interim dividend of 3.63 Singapore cents per share (over three times the 1H24 payout), has captured investor attention. This payout sits at the upper end of the company’s revised dividend policy (40-60% of distributable income).
Key factors driving interest include:
Double-digit ROE
Attractive dividend yield
Potential for increased investor positioning due to ongoing equity market reforms
OCBC Investment Research has revised the fair value estimate to SGD1.20 per share, raising the target FY25 P/E multiple from 8.1x to 9.2x—about a quarter standard deviation above the 10-year historical average of 8.6x. Despite the recent rally, BAL still offers a robust 6% forward dividend yield.
However, with the share price now close to the new fair value, the rating is downgraded to HOLD, though the total returns outlook remains positive.

ESG Updates: Sustainable Progress and Community Initiatives

– Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity down 18% versus 2016 levels (FY24), on track for a 30% reduction by 2030 – One methane capture facility installed; three more in the pipeline – Alternative GHG reduction trials: increased composting and biocharcoal program – RSPO certification target for all mills delayed to 2027 – 89 fires reported in Bumitama concessions in 2024, down from 151 in 2023 – Social Forestry scheme and 43 Bumitama Schools benefit over 4,000 local students – Zero cases of legal non-compliance in 2023

Research Coverage: Latest Recommendations and Fair Value Estimates

Singapore STI: Top Stocks by Market Capitalisation

Below is a ranked table of Singapore’s leading STI component stocks, featuring price, market cap, beta, dividend yield, P/E ratios, and analyst recommendations:

Outlook: Risks, Opportunities, and Guidance for Investors

US tech remains vulnerable to lofty expectations and AI cycle volatility, with major indices still elevated.
Singapore’s market is showing stable performance, but turnover and sentiment are cautious.
Dividend yields and capital returns are in focus, especially for stocks with strong fundamentals and ESG credentials.
Asia’s tech sector may face further pressure as the Nvidia-led rally loses steam.
For investors, the coming weeks will hinge on US inflation data, central bank decisions, and ongoing earnings releases, with over 90% of S&P 500 companies already reporting robust results and an expected near-11% profit growth this season.

Disclaimer and Ratings Guidance

This report is for informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Ratings are:

• BUY: Expected total returns (ex-dividends) >10%
• HOLD: Within +10% and -5%
• SELL: Less than -5%
• For companies <S\$150m: thresholds are >30%, +/-30%, <-30%

Investors are advised to consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions.