UOB Kay Hian Private Wealth Management
Date of Report: August 27, 2025

Global Market Dynamics: Nvidia’s AI Surge, Trump’s Tariff Moves, and Key Earnings to Watch

Market Overview: Volatility, Tariffs, and Hedge Fund Bets

Markets absorbed a flurry of headlines ranging from U.S. political maneuvers to blockbuster earnings and shifting global trade policies. Despite efforts from the Trump administration to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve and escalate tariff threats—particularly targeting China and India—U.S. equities advanced, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.41%. Treasury yields declined, and hedge funds continued to short volatility at unprecedented rates, betting on ongoing market stability.

Major Index, Yield, and Commodity Performance

Key Political and Economic Developments

• Trump’s Policy Moves: Announced plans to oust a Fed Governor, threatened 200% tariffs on China’s rare earths, and imposed new 25-50% tariffs on Indian goods. Also warned of restrictions on U.S. chip exports to countries with digital taxes.
• U.S. Market Calm: Despite these aggressive trade stances, U.S. equities rose and hedge funds increased short positions on the VIX, signaling confidence in continued low volatility.
• China-U.S. Diplomacy: China’s trade envoy Li Chenggang is visiting Washington, one of the few positive signals for U.S.-China trade relations this week.

Earnings Spotlight: Tech Giants Lead the Way

Nvidia (NVDA): AI Demand Powers Record Results

• Fiscal 2Q revenue projected at \$46 billion (+53% YoY), driven by robust AI chip demand.
• 3Q guidance seen at \$53 billion (+51% YoY), with China contributing ~\$6 billion, growing at 12–15%.
• Nvidia remains a core recommendation with strong momentum from private cloud AI and continued integration with Broadcom’s VMware platform.

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961.HK): AI and Travel Demand Drive Growth

• 2Q revenue growth expected at over 14% YoY, supported by solid travel demand and AI-driven gains.
• Potential share buyback following MakeMyTrip’s \$3 billion exit.
• Trip.com is a core recommendation for exposure to the travel recovery theme.

Apple (AAPL): Major U.S. Investment and AI Ambitions

• Fall event on September 9 to unveil new iPhones, Apple Watches, iPad Pros, and an upgraded Vision Pro headset.
• Plans \$600 billion U.S. investment over four years to localize production, reduce tariff exposure from China and India.
• Considering acquisitions of AI startups Mistral and Perplexity to boost AI capabilities.

Broadcom (AVGO) and Nvidia: VMware Cloud Foundation for AI

• Integrating Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs and Broadcom’s network tech to enable high-speed AI training and data transfer.
• Broadcom also expanded open-source and cybersecurity offerings.

Meta (META): Massive Data Center and Political PAC

• Highlighted \$50 billion “Hyperion” data center in Louisiana, emphasizing self-supplied power infrastructure.
• Launching a California-focused super PAC to support AI-friendly state policies, ahead of the 2026 governor race.

Alphabet (GOOGL): AI-Powered Translation Innovations

• Launched AI-powered live translation and language learning tools in Google Translate.
• Supports real-time conversations in 70+ languages, starting with beta for select major languages on Android and iOS.

AMD (AMD) and IBM: Quantum Supercomputing Collaboration

• Partnership to develop next-gen quantum-centric supercomputing architectures.
• Combines quantum and high-performance computing for future breakthroughs.

Snowflake (SNOW): Data Demand Boosts Earnings Outlook

• Product revenue projected to exceed expectations, with billings growth of 33% YoY (vs. 23% last year).
• Strong demand for Cortex and data engineering products supports bullish outlook.

Major U.S. Corporate Moves

• Trump Media (DJT) & Crypto.com: Announced a \$1+ billion crypto treasury SPAC merger aiming to list MCGA tokenized assets on Nasdaq.
• Canadian Pacific (CP): Rejected near-term rail mergers, opting for operational partnerships. Heightened scrutiny on Union Pacific’s \$85 billion bid for Norfolk Southern.
• AT&T (T): Acquired EchoStar’s wireless spectrum licenses for \$23 billion to expand 5G and fiber networks.
• Eli Lilly (LLY): Experimental GLP-1 pill orforglipron helped type 2 diabetes patients lose 10.5% body weight, supporting 2026 launch prospects.
• UnitedHealth (UNH): DOJ probe expanded to Optum Rx and physician payments beyond Medicare fraud.
• Exxon (XOM): Held talks with Russia’s Rosneft for potential return to Sakhalin-1 project under U.S. Treasury license.
• Boeing (BA): FAA will hold “tabletop” exercises before lifting the 737 MAX production cap, with a review targeted for end-September.
• Klarna: U.S. IPO planned for next month at \$13–\$14 billion valuation, a sharp retreat from the 2021 peak.

Greater China: Policy, Earnings & Regulatory Highlights

• Xi Jinping: To host Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, with Modi’s first China visit in seven years and Putin attending a Beijing parade.
• China’s Tech Push: State Council to support AI chips, intelligent vehicles, robots, and AI hardware, with a focus on job creation and legislative reforms.
• Denuclearization Talks: Trump renewed push for talks with Russia and China ahead of New START treaty expiry in February 2026.
• Alibaba (9988.HK, BABA US): Upgraded Tongyi Wanxiang Wan2.2-S2V video model to produce movie-quality digital human videos from a single image and audio. Remains a core recommendation.
• HSBC (0005.HK, HSBA LN): Fined HK\$4.2 million for past failures to disclose investment banking ties in over 4,200 reports. Bank has since remediated.

Key Greater China Earnings Results

Other Noteworthy Developments in Asia and EMEA

• Keppel (KEP SP): Launched S\$68.4 million arbitration against Seatrium over Brazil’s Operation Car Wash. Seatrium disputes the claim.
• Malayan Banking (MAY MK): 2Q25 net profit in line; supported by strong non-interest income and cost discipline. Valuation at 1.18x 2026F P/B, 10.5% ROE, 7% yield.
• India Tariffs: U.S. imposed an extra 25% tariff on all Indian-origin goods, with exporters warning of a 20-30% hit to \$87 billion annual shipments.
• Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): Plans INR700b (\$8b) investment in India over 5–6 years, expanding Maruti’s Gujarat plant to 1m-unit capacity and launching EV exports to 100 countries.
• Ryanair & Booking Holdings: Resolved years of litigation, now allowing Booking.com and affiliates to resell Ryanair tickets with full price transparency.
• EssilorLuxottica (EL FP): In talks to raise Nikon (7731 JP) stake from 9% to about 20%; Nikon valued at \$3.3b after 11% YTD decline.
• Hesai Group (HSAI US): Received CSRC approval to list up to 51.2m shares on HKEX, targeting \$300m from the listing.

Upcoming IPOs and Key Events

Key Events Calendar

• Aug 25–28: VMware Explore
• Aug 27–28: Deutsche Bank Tech Conf California (MSFT & NVDA participating)
• Aug 27: China July Industrial Profits, 50% tariffs on Indian exports to US begin. Earnings: Nvidia, Snowflake, Trip.com, Innovent, Meituan, Anta, Shenzhou, China Life, China Overseas Land, CGN, NARI, Wuliangye Yibin, China National Nuclear Power, Shaanxi Coal.
• Aug 28–29: Bitcoin Asia Conf HK
• Aug 28: UOB Kay Hian CIO Series, US 2Q GDP (2nd Est), US Initial Jobless Claims, ECB July Minutes. Earnings: MRVL, CNOOC, Li Auto, Gree, Yili, Huaneng, Haier, Mindray Bio-Medical, SF.
• Aug 29: End of “de minimis” duty exemption on low-value packages, China’s Top 100 Developer Real Estate Sales, Macau July Hotel Occupancy Rate, US July PCE, US July Personal Income/Spending. Earnings: Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Agricultural Bank, BYD, Midea, Longfor, Shenhua, Cosco Shipping, GWM, China State Construction, Yangtze Power, Cambricon, Beijing-Shanghai HSR, Shanxi Xinghuacun.

Conclusion: A Fast-Moving Landscape for Global Investors

This week’s developments highlight the rapid evolution of global markets, with AI and technology leading the charge, trade tensions re-escalating, and a packed earnings and IPO calendar. Investors should track both headline risks and sector-specific opportunities as the market continues to digest a volatile mix of policy, innovation, and corporate action.