Broker Name: Maybank Research Pte Ltd
Date of Report: August 7, 2025

Uber’s Stake in Grab: Potential Exit, Market Impact, and Grab’s Strategic Playbook

Overview: What’s New in Southeast Asia’s Superapp Arena?

Uber has announced a massive USD23 billion share buyback program, representing approximately 12% of its market cap. This buyback will be funded primarily through free cash flow, with Uber allocating about 50% of annual FCF to repurchases. Moreover, Uber’s CFO indicated that the company will opportunistically recycle proceeds from sales of minority equity stakes to support both the buyback and select ecosystem investments, such as partnerships in autonomous vehicles (AV).

This strategic announcement puts Uber’s 13.55% minority stake in Grab Holdings under the spotlight. Investors are weighing the implications of a possible Uber exit from Grab, which could trigger significant selling pressure and volatility in Grab’s share price.

Uber’s Minority Stake Recycling: Implications for Grab

Uber holds minority stakes in several prominent global tech companies, including:

• Grab Holdings (13.55%)
• Didi Chuxing (China)
• Zomato (India)

The report highlights prior concerns about stake dilution in Grab, particularly after Softbank diluted its holding by 8 percentage points from Q2 2023 to Q2 2024. During this period, Grab’s stock price remained range-bound despite recovery in broader markets and peer stocks. Grab responded with a USD500 million buyback program, purchasing approximately USD226 million of its own shares in 2024, demonstrating proactive management of shareholder value.

Grab’s Counterstrategy: Leveraging Buybacks and Financial Strength

Should Uber decide to sell its stake in Grab, the latter is well-positioned to counteract potential selling pressure through its own buyback program. Key financial highlights supporting this strategy include:

• Strong cash liquidity of USD7.8 billion
• Net cash position of USD5.7 billion
• Recent capital raising of USD1.5 billion
• Moderate capex requirements

With consistent free cash flow generation expected to exceed USD2 billion cumulatively from 2025-2027, Grab is increasingly able to initiate shareholder return programs without sacrificing growth investments. A targeted buyback would help neutralize share price impact from any Uber-induced selling, while signaling confidence in long-term value and strengthening market support during volatility.

Grab Holdings: Company Profile and Shareholder Structure

Grab Holdings is a leading Southeast Asian superapp, with core verticals in delivery, mobility, and financial services. The company’s major shareholders include:

• Uber Technologies, Inc.: 13.9%
• SB Investment Advisers (UK) Ltd.: 10.5%
• Toyota Motor Corp.: 5.8%

Key statistics:

• 52-week high/low: USD5.64 / USD3.12
• 3-month avg turnover: USD75 million
• Market capitalization: USD20.9 billion
• Issued shares: 4,385 million
• Free float: 38.8%

Share Price Performance and Financial Projections

• Current Share Price: USD4.78
• 12-month Price Target: USD5.85 (+23%)
• Recommendation: BUY

Market Position: Competitive Landscape and Growth Drivers

Grab maintains leadership across all operating markets, leveraging its scale advantage in the underpenetrated ASEAN region. Despite mild growth headwinds from already-high take rates, rising costs, and inflationary pressures affecting both consumers and drivers, Grab is well-positioned for robust expansion.

Key competitive notes:

• Potential increase in competition from well-capitalized rivals like Gojek and new entrants such as XanhSM in multiple markets.
• Stable take rates projected, already high compared to global peers.

Growth forecasts:

• On-demand GMV CAGR (2024-2027E): 17%
• Adjusted net revenue CAGR (2024-2027E): 20%
• Adjusted EBITDA projected to reach USD1.05 billion by FY27E

Price Drivers and Historical Trend:

• 4Q21: Revenue missed consensus, fell 44% due to promotions and driver incentives.
• 1Q22: Results exceeded expectations driven by reopening recovery.
• 2Q23: Results exceeded expectations.
• FY23: Share price dropped on softer FY24 outlook.
• 1Q24: Share price recovery on raised EBITDA guidance.

Risks and Upside/Downside Factors

Upside:

• Softer competition from XanhSM’s entry in Vietnam/Indonesia
• Improved macroeconomic conditions boosting discretionary spending
• Lower driver-supply pressure reducing incentives
• Enhanced ecosystem benefits in financial services
• Possible easing of US Fed monetary policy

Downside:

• Fierce competition from new entrants
• Increased incentives due to tightening driver supply
• Reduced on-demand usage from price increases and inflation
• Further stake divestment by Softbank, increasing stock liquidity

ESG Analysis: Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility

Grab’s business model is rooted in both commercial viability and social impact. Its mobility and delivery services contribute to environmental goals by reducing car ownership and emissions, and the company promotes digitization and gig economy livelihoods across Southeast Asia. Environmental Initiatives:

• 349,986 tonnes of GHG emissions avoided in 2023
• 6.3% of all distance travelled on low or zero-emission modes in 2023
• WWF-Singapore pact for zero plastic waste by 2030

Social Impact:

• 46% of driver-partners had no prior income before joining Grab
• 1,100 deaf/physically impaired partners on the platform
• Promotion of price transparency in ride-hailing
• Support for F&B hawkers and digitization, with ongoing concerns about commission rates

Governance:

• Board: 7 members, 5 independent, 2 co-founders, 2 women
• Dual share structure: Class B (45 votes), Class A (1 vote)
• Anthony Tan controls 64.1% voting power with only 3.9% beneficial ownership
• KPMG has been auditor since 2015

ESG Quantitative & Qualitative Highlights:

• Overall ESG Score: 46 (above average)
• Strong quantitative disclosures on emissions and diversity
• Targets: Zero Packaging Waste by 2040 (0% achieved), Carbon Neutral by 2040 (0%), 100% renewable energy by 2030 (currently 11%), 40% women in leadership by 2030 (currently 36%), less than 0.5 accidents per 100,000 trips (currently 0.08)

Financial Tables: Key Metrics and Ratios

Broader Coverage: Other Companies Mentioned

Zomato (India)

Uber holds a minority stake in Zomato, a leading Indian food delivery and restaurant discovery platform. Zomato’s shares are tracked but not rated in this report. The strategic importance lies in Uber’s stated intention to recycle minority stakes, which could impact Zomato’s stock in the event of an exit.

Didi Chuxing (China)

Didi, another Uber minority holding, is a major ride-hailing company in China. Although not listed, Uber’s stake forms part of its global portfolio subject to potential recycling, with implications for liquidity and market sentiment.

Uber Technologies (US)

Uber itself is covered in the context of its global buyback program and its minority holdings strategy. The company’s share buyback is seen as a lever to enhance shareholder returns, and its position as both a strategic investor and potential seller in Grab, Didi, and Zomato is a key market watchpoint.

Conclusion: Strategic Moves and Investor Takeaways

Grab Holdings stands at an inflection point as Uber evaluates options for its minority stakes. With robust financials, a proactive buyback strategy, and a strong ESG framework, Grab is equipped to counter any potential headwinds from major shareholder exits. Investors should closely monitor developments in Uber’s stake recycling, competitive dynamics in Southeast Asia, and Grab’s ongoing execution of growth and sustainability initiatives.

With its above-average ESG score, improving profitability metrics, and consistent free cash flow generation, Grab remains a compelling investment opportunity in the region’s evolving superapp landscape.